15:30 move in! Must be nice haha. Carmel is the team to beat I’d say. Excited to see the Center Grove Carmel matchup when they’re both at full strength.
Noblesville boys are going to make a good run for the state title next year.
With everyone on IndianaRunner on their high horse about how their forums are "better", despite this thread being the only place with any quality discussion, I thought I'd rank my top ten teams with what we know now.
State title contenders
1. Carmel - With Provenzano looking like a serious threat to finish top 10 in the state (maybe even top 5), they are the team to beat right now. Mathison all but guarantees they will only score four, and their 5 running 15:54 shows that they have no issues with depth.
2. Center Grove - They are a little harder to rank because we haven't seen Ty Garrett, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that he will be ready to go at the state meet. Their top 3 is stronger than Carmel, but it looks like they will get buried at 4 and 5, and they are more susceptible to an injury (ie if Garrett isn't the Garrett we are expecting come October).
Podium contenders
3. Noblesville - a solid second at the Hamilton County meet behind Carmel. They've had good showings both of the last two weekends, and probably should have been considered a podium contender back over the summer. This is a team to watch for next year, Propst is the only runner in their top 7 who graduates, while Carmel and Center Grove take some massive hits.
4. Zionsville - Based on recent results, I think that they are a step or two behind Noblesville, but I think they are still well positioned to make their first team podium in school history. Their front running isn't as strong as Noblesville, and their depth looks fairly similar, so I think I'm higher on Noblesville right now.
5. Columbus North - Here because of their preseason ranking and what we now know about other teams. This rating is obviously the most volatile.
6. Brebeuf - Even though they didn't win their county meet I still think they belong here. In a meet the size of the Marion County meet, their front running isn't the advantage it is at the state meet. Going into this year we knew this was a team with razor thin margins for error, and Saturday only proves that. Unless Rosio and Legue won't be racing at all this season, I don't think this Saturday is an accurate picture of what this team can be.
7. Fishers - Sam Q gives them state meet level front running that Noblesville, Zionsville, and likely CN won't quite match, but the rest of the team isn't what you need to get onto the podium. If this wasn't Fishers, I would have considered this team a long shot podium contender, but if history is any indication, this team will be running better in October than they are now.
Outside looking in for the podium hunt
8. Franklin Central - Easily won the Marion County meet, but Brebeuf sat Rosio and Legue, and the size of the Marion county meet works against a team that relies on elite front running. I don't think they quite have what it takes to make it on the podium this year, but they only lose their 1 and 7 from Saturday, they put 5 returners all ran under 16:43, and have a frosh who ran 17:23, this is a team with a bright future ahead.
I would be surprised to see them on the podium
9. Bloomington North - They were third at the Valley Kickoff meet behind CG and Brebeuf (no Legue from Brebeuf however), and won a meet without any other state level teams this past weekend. I think they probably have a better top two than FC, but I think FC will bury them at 3, 4, and 5. This is another team for the future, they only graduate their top runner from this year, and they have a freshman who ran 16:31.2 on Lavern in August, which is no small feat.
10. Valpo - Probably the toughest to rank, because we don't have the same level of information to use when comparing them to other schools. Dillabaugh and Nobles give them a good one two punch, and INCCStats was very high on their team performance last weekend. Seeing them at the state meet is all but assured given the New Prairie Semi State path.
I tried to base these rankings on what I think would happen if the state meet was held on September 3rd, but made some assumptions (such as Legue and Garrett being ready to go by the time the state meet rolls around).
We should have some great meets on tap this regular season! Brown County is in two weeks and Carmel, Center Grove, Brebeuf, Zionsville, Bloomington North, and CN all competing on a very fast course. The HCC meet will feature 4 teams I have ranked in the top 10, and I think all 4 have the potential to win the meet. The Nike Valley Twilight meet will feature every team I talked about except for Zionsville, and hopefully a few top Illinois teams.
With everyone on IndianaRunner on their high horse about how their forums are "better", despite this thread being the only place with any quality discussion, I thought I'd rank my top ten teams with what we know now.
State title contenders
1. Carmel - With Provenzano looking like a serious threat to finish top 10 in the state (maybe even top 5), they are the team to beat right now. Mathison all but guarantees they will only score four, and their 5 running 15:54 shows that they have no issues with depth.
2. Center Grove - They are a little harder to rank because we haven't seen Ty Garrett, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that he will be ready to go at the state meet. Their top 3 is stronger than Carmel, but it looks like they will get buried at 4 and 5, and they are more susceptible to an injury (ie if Garrett isn't the Garrett we are expecting come October).
Podium contenders
3. Noblesville - a solid second at the Hamilton County meet behind Carmel. They've had good showings both of the last two weekends, and probably should have been considered a podium contender back over the summer. This is a team to watch for next year, Propst is the only runner in their top 7 who graduates, while Carmel and Center Grove take some massive hits.
4. Zionsville - Based on recent results, I think that they are a step or two behind Noblesville, but I think they are still well positioned to make their first team podium in school history. Their front running isn't as strong as Noblesville, and their depth looks fairly similar, so I think I'm higher on Noblesville right now.
5. Columbus North - Here because of their preseason ranking and what we now know about other teams. This rating is obviously the most volatile.
6. Brebeuf - Even though they didn't win their county meet I still think they belong here. In a meet the size of the Marion County meet, their front running isn't the advantage it is at the state meet. Going into this year we knew this was a team with razor thin margins for error, and Saturday only proves that. Unless Rosio and Legue won't be racing at all this season, I don't think this Saturday is an accurate picture of what this team can be.
7. Fishers - Sam Q gives them state meet level front running that Noblesville, Zionsville, and likely CN won't quite match, but the rest of the team isn't what you need to get onto the podium. If this wasn't Fishers, I would have considered this team a long shot podium contender, but if history is any indication, this team will be running better in October than they are now.
Outside looking in for the podium hunt
8. Franklin Central - Easily won the Marion County meet, but Brebeuf sat Rosio and Legue, and the size of the Marion county meet works against a team that relies on elite front running. I don't think they quite have what it takes to make it on the podium this year, but they only lose their 1 and 7 from Saturday, they put 5 returners all ran under 16:43, and have a frosh who ran 17:23, this is a team with a bright future ahead.
I would be surprised to see them on the podium
9. Bloomington North - They were third at the Valley Kickoff meet behind CG and Brebeuf (no Legue from Brebeuf however), and won a meet without any other state level teams this past weekend. I think they probably have a better top two than FC, but I think FC will bury them at 3, 4, and 5. This is another team for the future, they only graduate their top runner from this year, and they have a freshman who ran 16:31.2 on Lavern in August, which is no small feat.
10. Valpo - Probably the toughest to rank, because we don't have the same level of information to use when comparing them to other schools. Dillabaugh and Nobles give them a good one two punch, and INCCStats was very high on their team performance last weekend. Seeing them at the state meet is all but assured given the New Prairie Semi State path.
I tried to base these rankings on what I think would happen if the state meet was held on September 3rd, but made some assumptions (such as Legue and Garrett being ready to go by the time the state meet rolls around).
We should have some great meets on tap this regular season! Brown County is in two weeks and Carmel, Center Grove, Brebeuf, Zionsville, Bloomington North, and CN all competing on a very fast course. The HCC meet will feature 4 teams I have ranked in the top 10, and I think all 4 have the potential to win the meet. The Nike Valley Twilight meet will feature every team I talked about except for Zionsville, and hopefully a few top Illinois teams.
Wouldn’t be surprising if Carmel wins in 2023 even after losing Mathison and some other seniors. They will return 3 guys under 16, and 4 more guys under 10:10.
We should have some great meets on tap this regular season! Brown County is in two weeks and Carmel, Center Grove, Brebeuf, Zionsville, Bloomington North, and CN all competing on a very fast course. The HCC meet will feature 4 teams I have ranked in the top 10, and I think all 4 have the potential to win the meet. The Nike Valley Twilight meet will feature every team I talked about except for Zionsville, and hopefully a few top Illinois teams.
I got my green and white schools confused. Zionsville will be at the Nike Valley Twlight meet. Valpo has their conference meet that day.
One meet to watch this weekend is the THSB State Preview Meet. While recent invitationals like Valley Cross Kick-Off, Nike Twilight, and NXR Midwest have taken a little luster off this meet, and the challenging course doesn't always yield eye-popping times, it does manage to still attract a lot of top teams and inviduals each year who like to get that valuable experience racing on the championship course.
This year's line up includes (per INCC Stats Week 2 ratings): #2 Center Grove #5 Zionsville #6 Fishers #7 Brebeuf Jesuit #9 Valparaiso #13 Guerin Catholic
Six teams capable of a Top 10 finish at the State Meet, all undoubtedly working towards a spot on the podium, plus other traditionally tough teams such as Crown Point, Cathedral (shout out Cole Hocker), Terre Haute North, Terre Haute South, and Pike who will be looking to increase their clout and surprise one (or more) of the ranked teams.
* * * * *
As for the other top ranked teams, I believe that #3 Noblesville, #8 Columbus North, and #10 Bloomington North should all be at Columbus North this weekend, and we should be in for some blazing fast times as it's one of the fastest courses in the State.
The Lafayette Harrison Invite and the Marion Invite are two other huge meets that draw a lot of the powerhouse programs throughout Indiana and typically also produce lightning quick times as both of those courses are also notoriously-quick PR paradises.
With the Hamilton County and Marion County meets getting switched to last Saturday, it will also be interesting to see where schools like #1 Carmel, #3 Noblesville, #4 Franklin Central, and #11 Hamilton Southeastern decide to race.
With the Hamilton County and Marion County meets getting switched to last Saturday, it will also be interesting to see where schools like #1 Carmel, #3 Noblesville, #4 Franklin Central, and #11 Hamilton Southeastern decide to race.
Carmel has the Brownsburg invite on their schedule this weekend, but I would be surprised if they raced their full varsity.
With the Hamilton County and Marion County meets getting switched to last Saturday, it will also be interesting to see where schools like #1 Carmel, #3 Noblesville, #4 Franklin Central, and #11 Hamilton Southeastern decide to race.
Carmel has the Brownsburg invite on their schedule this weekend, but I would be surprised if they raced their full varsity.
Colin/Taylor mentioned being at Brownsburg on the podcast yesterday and, to me, it seemed like it wouldn't be a total blow-off. (They were there last year and held out most folks though)
Franklin Central will be at Brownsburg. Noblesville will be at Columbus North and it appears HSE has the weekend off.
The ? is where should Center Grove and Carmel be ranked nationally at this point?
This is going to be a great season-long rivalry!
It's even more incredible to think about how strong center grove would be if Drew Costelow (15:19 5k/ 1:51 800m) had not transferred out to Colorado (Valor).
The ? is where should Center Grove and Carmel be ranked nationally at this point?
This is going to be a great season-long rivalry!
It's even more incredible to think about how strong center grove would be if Drew Costelow (15:19 5k/ 1:51 800m) had not transferred out to Colorado (Valor).
I heard some bad things about last year’s Valor coach and they got a new coach. Heard that Garrett was not happy with his coach. Hopefully the new coach is better.
They have a really good sophomore class this year though, and a freshman who has potential but didn’t do as well as expected in his first race but it was only his first hs race so I’m sure he felt lots of pressure. If the new coach is bad, it will be a shame. People may even transfer out. In 2024 there could be a battle between Niwot, Coronado and Valor Christian. All 3 are looking to be the top teams in the nation in 2024 with everyone healthy. Mountain Vista has 3 good sophs so if they find 2 more guys they could be up there too.
I don’t know why Costelow didn’t transfer back. Now he’s the only senior at Valor. I wonder how he felt about the old coach and the new one. But I’m sure it would be a hassle to move around so much.
I think it’s fine that Garrett and Costelow were at Valor last year. They made Valor one of the best teams in the country. And probably made the class of 2025 guys better too.
CARMEL CENTER GORVE ZIONSVILLE NOBLESVILLE COLUMBUS NORTH BREBEUF FISHERS FRANKLIN CENTRAL VALPARAISO HAMILTON SOUTHEASTERN BLOOMINGTON NORTH NORTHRIDGE BLOOMINGTON SOUTH PORTAGE WESTFIELD CHESTERTON LAKE CENTRAL BROWNSBURG WARSAW GUERIN CATHOLIC PENN NORTH CENTRAL FLOYD CENTRAL MT VERNON CHATARD