Boys-
I think Center Grove will win. They bring all scorers back and add Ty Garrett.
Second spot will be up for grabs- between Brebeuf Jesuit Prep, Carmel and Fishers.
In order for Brebeuf to really be locked for second they will need their #4 and #5 guys to step up.
Kole Mathison will win but Ty Garrett will give him a run for his money
Center Grove is now the odd-on favorite if they can all stay healthy. Their solid #5 runner (PR 16:0x) from last year graduated. I think Kole will win the individual championship.
Yeah Center Grove loses their #5 but they being their 1-4 back, and Garrett will move each of them down a spot on the team.
Their 6th and 7th weren’t bad either and one of them should be able to step up to add depth.
Don't sleep on Mimbela and Hennessy. Both of them will push Garrett, and any of those three can beat the other two on a given day.
I'm interested see how Columbus North bounces back. They have a good program, and always have someone stepping up.
One or 2 of the top 3 Brebeuf returners (Rossi, Todd, and Burrell) could challenge for a top 5 spot to replace Krishna
Predictions -
1. Center Grove - probably their best team in school history with potentially 4 in the Top 25. The return of Ty Garrett makes them the clear #1 preseason pick.
2. Carmel - They have Mathison and no one else does, which means they are only scoring 4 in every meet he runs. Carmel has to be one of the biggest high schools in the country with over 5000 kids enrolled. They are always really deep and really good.
3. Brebeuf Jesuit - dealt with injuries last year but put it together when it mattered most to win the State Title. As ridiculous as it seems, they could possibly put 3 in the Top 10 at State this year.
4. Columbus North - losing the State Champ hurts along with their number 2 & 3 runners, but like Carmel, this team is always loaded and competitive.
5. Fishers - They are taking a graduation hit, but you can never count them out. They always seem to find a way and are always in the podium hunt come October.
6. Zionsville - one of those teams that seems to always place in the 5-15 range at State. Like CG, this quite possibly could be their best team ever and they will definitely be battling for a spot on the podium. If their pack stays together, it will go a long way to offset some of the front running of the teams listed ahead of them.
After these 6 teams listed above, there appears to be a bit of a gap to the next schools, which are mostly the other Indy area programs like Franklin Central, North Central, Noblesville, Guerin Catholic, Bishop Chatard, Westfield, and Hamilton Southeastern.
Individually, look for Mathison, Garrett, and Conway to battle for the title with guys like Propst, Mimbela, Killeen, Todd, Burrell, Hennessey, Rosio, taking many of the other Top 15 spots.
Locks -
As usual, most of the country will sleep on Indiana this fall, making it once again probably the most underrated state for distance running in the US.
Brebeuf would have gotten 8th at RunningLane Nats if their 5th finished where he should have
Zionsville could win it all this year.
1. Center Grove. Returns 1-4 + Ty Garrett. Could surprise a lot of people at nationals too.
2. Carmel. Lead by Kole Mathison. Returns 4 of their top 6 + 9:44 and 9:49 guys who didn’t race at state last year. Very good depth and great program generally speaking.
3. Fishers. Returns 5 guys after barely losing to Columbus North. Should finish one spot higher than last year.
4. Zionsville. Placed 7th but loses only one senior (their #5). Based on track results they should be able to close the 4-5 gap.
5. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep. Returns 5 guys after winning state but losing Krishna and Collin Stevens will be tough to overcome. Needs to find a good 4th and 5th runner in order to place higher than 5th. This team was only 5-deep last year. They could have 3 in the top 10.
6. Columbus North. Placed 3rd but losing 4 guys including 3 scorers will be tough to overcome.
Valley Cross Kickoff is a week from today! Aug 13.
Brebeuf is running in this.
Center Grove and Carmel ran in this last year too.
Looks like a stacked field.
See you at the top wrote:
Looks like a stacked field.
Wow, all top teams are in there except Zionsville. We will see the following:
- How good Brebeufs 4 and 5 currently are.
-How Brebeuf stacks up with Carmel and Center Grove.
- How well Columbus North was able to reload.
This won't tell you much. I can't see all the top teams running all their top guys. Hell Brebeuf didn't run their full team until the tournament last year.
Yeah I’ve read somewhere that Brebeuf had injuries when the season started.
But at the end (State) they were able to peak
IN deeds wrote:
Wow, all top teams are in there except Zionsville. We will see the following:
Results are posted for the Valley Kickoff: CG 86, Brebeuf 101, etc. As expected not everyone ran their full teams or all or all of their top runners.
CG was missing their top guy Ty Garrett, and also Gavin Rockwell.
Brebeuf has a great top 3 and #4. They were missing a guy who was in their top 7 last year (the guy who ran a 10:25 / 2:01 last spring).
Brebeuf loses 3 seniors from their top 4. Next year they will not be an elite team anymore.
Here's my preseason top 20 individual predictions when it's all set and done at state with their 800, 1600, 3200 and XC 5K PBs for the guys (some are converted times), I feel like I valued the track season last spring too much but whoops. I will mention that there is news in the Indianapolis area that Carmel is officially getting a transfer from Minneapolis Minnesota area that is included in this list. This list would definitely not be the same in a month or so from now as breakouts happen, I already added people who I think will have breakout seasons this fall after the spring track season.
1 Kole Mathison - Carmel - 1:53, 4:04, 8:55, 14:23
2 Will Conway - Floyd Central - 2:03, 4:17, 8:56, 15:19
3 Ty Garrett - Center Grove - 1:58, 4:16, 9:03, 14:58
4 Ezra Burrell - Brebeuf Jesuit - 1:57, 4:12, 9:17, 15:41
5 Martin Barco - Martinsville - 1:57, 4:12, 16:54
6 Kyle Clark - Bloomington North - 1:56, 4:13, 9:42, 15:52
7 Cameron Todd - Brebeuf Jesuit - 1:57, 4:13, 9:17, 15:20
8 Matteo Rosio - Brebeuf Jesuit - 2:02, 4:25, 9:19, 15:20
9 Asher Propst - Noblesville - 4:20, 9:10, 15:49
10 Aidan Lord - New Albany - 1:57, 4:15, 9:20, 15:42
11 Parker Mimbela - Center Grove - 2:02, 4:31, 9:22, 15:23
12 Nate Killeen - North Central - 1:53, 4:16, 9:24, 15:34
13 Griffin Hennessy - Center Grove - 4:16, 9:39, 15:39
14 Matthew Helton - Zionsville - 1:59, 4:17, 9:26, 15:53
15 Tony Provenzano - Carmel - 2:04, 4:24, 9:16, 15:40
16 Brayden Henkle - Franklin Central - 1:56, 4:18, 9:19, 15:54
17 Jack Weber - Guerin Catholic - 2:00, 4:20, 9:45, 16:37
18 Nick Ostendorf - Lawrence North - 2:04, 4:20, 9:58, 16:39
19 Evan Long - Tipton - 4:20, 9:47, 16:24
20 Clayton Guthrie - Columbus North - 1:59, 4:20, 9:35, 15:39
I think there is only 6 teams that can contend for a top 5 team podium spots but 2 additional wild card teams who could add on to list.
The two title favorites as of now are absolutely Center Grove and Carmel. These two would've been favorites without each of their transfers but now the transfers definitely separate themselves from rest of teams in state. The only team other than these two who I can see winning it all is Brebeuf Jesuit if they can find a consistent 4-5 with their great top 3. Zionsville is a very good team with a lot of depth this fall so they are a team to watch too. Same goes for Fishers and Columbus North too as they have had great success and tradition over the years and both programs bring great pieces back this fall to be the favorites for the last podium spot.
The two wildcard teams who I believe have potential to podium come October are Noblesville and Franklin Central. Both teams have the firepower up front but have very young backends of their projected lineups and both are large schools with larger teams. If those young guys develop a lot this summer and throughout the season to blend in with their top 1-2 guys, Both these teams can absolutely challenge Columbus North and Fishers for the last podium spot. So my top 8 teams and podium threats are as of now if everyone was healthy.
1 Center Grove - Top 3 Lock, Title Favorite
2 Carmel - Top 3 Lock, Title Favorite
3 Brebeuf Jesuit - Podium Lock, Fringe Title Contender
4 Zionsville - Podium Lock
5 Columbus North - Podium Favorite
6 Fishers - Podium Favorite
7 Noblesville - Fringe Podium Contender
8 Franklin Central - Fringe Podium Contender
Is IndianaRunner helping to ruin Indiana XC? Are they Indiana’s Flotrack? Lol
