We've closed this thread to new posts. Please discuss this topic in a new thread given the fact she just won the race outright in 2023. Does that mean that the 2022 cheating allegations definitely have no merit?
Harvey could see her for most, if not all, of the first 72 miles (to Panamint), and probably some after that, so any funny business probably would have happened in daylight hours. MI mentions the 'incident 6-8 miles past Panamint' with the sprinter van and again on Portal Rd.
Posting this again as it really is bonkers. The gap got crazy between Panamint and Darwin, and even crazier on Portal. Mileage is a rough estimate.
Furnace Creek (17.5) : Ashley 2 mins ahead Stovepipe Wells (42.2): Ashley 1 min ahead Towne Pass (59): Ashley 16 mins (~1.5 mi) ahead Panamint Springs (72.7): Ashley 8 mins (~0.75 mi) ahead Darwin (90.6): Ashley 42 mins (~3 mi) ahead Keeler (108.0): Ashley 36 mins (~2.5 mi) ahead Lone Pine (122.7): Ashley 49 mins (~4 mi) ahead Portal Road (131.1): Ashley 2 hour 17 mins (8-10 mi) ahead Finish (135): Ashley 3 hours 7 mins (~10 mi) ahead
Did she get really good at hills, with Ryan Hall's help? Most of her experience is on downhill marathon courses. Not sure about the IM courses. If there was a sprinter van, why? Like what was the purpose of a whole ass other large vehicle?
I don’t think the increased gap between Harvey and Ashley from Lone Pine (122 mi) to the finish means anything. Harvey was obviously walking it in at ~24 min/mile (more than 2 hours slower than he’s been on this section before). Not that his overall result is bad. If nothing inappropriate happened before Panamint at 72 mi, that means she ran faster than him in the heat for 72 miles, including much faster up the climb to Towne Pass. Not bad for a just a “lowly” Olympic Trials marathoner. The leg from Panamint to Darwin up the climb where she gained 34 minutes on Harvey is faster than him, but I think it has to be put in the context of what Eric Spencer said about better conditions after Panamint for the first three runners (Yoshi, Ivan, Ashley) and worsening conditions for Harvey and runners further back. Yoshi, for example, ran that leg only 7 minutes slower than his course record-setting leg and the 6th fastest the leg has ever been run (and 29 minutes faster than Ashley). Ivan was only 6 minutes slower than Ashley. Harvey, on the other hand, was well over an hour slower than the fastest he’s run that leg (for whatever reason). I’m not saying the time gap changes prove she didn’t cheat. I just think the time gap changes can’t really demonstrate anything at this point. They’d have to have a very talented hill runner who is used to running in hot temps hiding in that van. They would have to coordinate the pace and heart rate so that there weren’t any unexplained differences as they switched off. Very well-planned and executed if this was the case.
i talked to eric spencer at panamint this year. he was talking about how the women’s race was going to be a really good race, that the top however many were all running really well and pretty close. he mentioned ashley, but there was no mention of a big separation between the top 3 and the rest of the field. i don’t know how long he was there but i think it was a little after 12 that i was there. according to the results, ashley went through at 10:49 and harvey went through at 10:57, so it’s not like the weather was different for them and whatever he saw at panamint, he didn’t see what happened going up that climb from there.
And he still hasn't confirmed (or denied) that his post is about her.
The time differentials seem to show that he slowed to a walk, she didn't, and he got blitzed in those sections. The evidence isn't that she got in a van or used a doppleganger. The evidence is that he slowed to a crawl.
And he still hasn't confirmed (or denied) that his post is about her.
The time differentials seem to show that he slowed to a walk, she didn't, and he got blitzed in those sections. The evidence isn't that she got in a van or used a doppleganger. The evidence is that he slowed to a crawl.
Evidence? What evidence?
We know nothing about his race.
I’ll assume you can calculate pace from splits, which seem to provide ample evidence that she didn’t pull away by speeding up radically. The gap resulted from him slowing to a crawl, did it not?
At least this thread has established that there is a butthurt guy named Harvey whose ego is bigger than his running ability.
"she was kicking my ass while we were both running, but she put so much time on me when I was walking that she must have cheated…"
Harvey would lead the list of least likely to have his ego butthurt.
Well, you do know from Lone Pine the course gains almost 5,000 feet over the last 13 miles don't you?
I downloaded a bunch of data from Badwaters results. The top 10 finishers over the last several years ran that final 13 mile stretch almost 50% slower than Ashley Paulson did. And these are world renowned runners. What she did was not impossible. What she did (I would argue) wouldn't even get speculation, if not for:
1) Her checkered past.
2) Reports from the race that there was suspicious behavior.
Apparently those reports were butthurt 'she couldn't have legally done that', despite the fact that a couple of them ran within 0-2 miles of her for the first 15 hours. They literally watched her run away from them.
2) Reports from the race that there was suspicious behavior.
Apparently those reports were butthurt 'she couldn't have legally done that', despite the fact that a couple of them ran within 0-2 miles of her for the first 15 hours. They literally watched her run away from them.
I think we should take the second point head-on.
There actually are no reports, as far as any of us know, of suspicious behavior. There are no names attached to any accusations of merit. There is no witness to any suspicious behavior. There is nothing that anyone can link to as far as "reports" go. And no, having a pacer who sort of looks like the athlete and wears the same clothes does not constitute a suspicious behavior, without any other observation or reason for concern.
If I am incorrect, I would appreciate a link to the report or accusation, who is the witness, and what they saw.
Harvey would lead the list of least likely to have his ego butthurt.
While that might be true, making a post that seems to allude to this race and then failing to reply when asked, directly, to confirm or deny whether that is the case is hardly the makings of admirable behavior.
If it is about her, he should have the courage to say so.
If it is not, and that was the furthest thing from his mind when he made the post, he should want to clear up the misconception.
If it is about her and he refuses to say so, he strikes me as taking a coward's route.
2) Reports from the race that there was suspicious behavior.
Apparently those reports were butthurt 'she couldn't have legally done that', despite the fact that a couple of them ran within 0-2 miles of her for the first 15 hours. They literally watched her run away from them.
I think we should take the second point head-on.
There actually are no reports, as far as any of us know, of suspicious behavior. There are no names attached to any accusations of merit. There is no witness to any suspicious behavior. There is nothing that anyone can link to as far as "reports" go. And no, having a pacer who sort of looks like the athlete and wears the same clothes does not constitute a suspicious behavior, without any other observation or reason for concern.
If I am incorrect, I would appreciate a link to the report or accusation, who is the witness, and what they saw.
From what I read at MI, the reports were things like 'she should have been visible at multiple times when she wasn't'. MI gathered information for where that was on the course, and then using Strava's fly-by capability, figured out because of curves in the road or elevation changes they wouldn't have been able to see her based on where they each were at that time.
Those 'reports' (IMHO) from well known highly accomplished runners is what set of the wild goose chase, looking at splits, pictures, etc. Now with the passage of time, we have to assume (because of nothing more specific and nothing more public) that the heart of these reports is basically a disbelief that she couldn't have possibly done what she did. But again, without any proof or more public details, we have to at this point then assume its just disbelief.
I was all-in on the train that this could be a cheater. But the more I looked into the splits, GPS data, pictures along the course, and Ashley's race resume, the more I was convinced it was indeed possible. Especially if those supposed reports fell apart into nothing.
Looking at the splits and videos, Ashley was within 0-2 miles of Harvey and Lee for 15 hours. 15 hours! At Stovepipe Wells for example (mile 42) Ashley is on video leaving the checkpoint within 5 seconds of Harvey arriving. She arrived at Panamint Springs (mile 72) a mere 4 minutes ahead of Lee. They quite literally watched her slowly run away from them over the course of the day.
There actually are no reports, as far as any of us know, of suspicious behavior. There are no names attached to any accusations of merit. There is no witness to any suspicious behavior. There is nothing that anyone can link to as far as "reports" go. And no, having a pacer who sort of looks like the athlete and wears the same clothes does not constitute a suspicious behavior, without any other observation or reason for concern.
If I am incorrect, I would appreciate a link to the report or accusation, who is the witness, and what they saw.
From what I read at MI, the reports were things like 'she should have been visible at multiple times when she wasn't'. MI gathered information for where that was on the course, and then using Strava's fly-by capability, figured out because of curves in the road or elevation changes they wouldn't have been able to see her based on where they each were at that time.
Those 'reports' (IMHO) from well known highly accomplished runners is what set of the wild goose chase, looking at splits, pictures, etc. Now with the passage of time, we have to assume (because of nothing more specific and nothing more public) that the heart of these reports is basically a disbelief that she couldn't have possibly done what she did. But again, without any proof or more public details, we have to at this point then assume its just disbelief.
I was all-in on the train that this could be a cheater. But the more I looked into the splits, GPS data, pictures along the course, and Ashley's race resume, the more I was convinced it was indeed possible. Especially if those supposed reports fell apart into nothing.
Looking at the splits and videos, Ashley was within 0-2 miles of Harvey and Lee for 15 hours. 15 hours! At Stovepipe Wells for example (mile 42) Ashley is on video leaving the checkpoint within 5 seconds of Harvey arriving. She arrived at Panamint Springs (mile 72) a mere 4 minutes ahead of Lee. They quite literally watched her slowly run away from them over the course of the day.
There's actually nothing about her race resume that indicates she's going to be head-and-shoulders above Harvey and Lee (and Oswald! ... j/k) going up Father Crowley. Looking at the splits as mere numbers and what is humanly possible is foolish in this situation. It's like saying me or you could run away from Harvey and Lee because we're human and nobody proved we didn't really do it. I know the iFitters are talking about how much she trained, but that volume is not unusual for people running this race. I'd argue that Harvey trained harder than Ashley since he was getting ready for Barkley. It defies logic to believe that she's going to make the gains to surpass him coming from 17:26 in October. Somebody keeps throwing out the "he was faster between Panamint and Darwin" in a different year. Well, by Darwin, he was still on target to run like he did when he ran the race last year. He was having a good day. She's just not as fast at him at 100+ and she's not going to wear down a guy who set the record at Big Dog's Backyard who's having a good run.
From what I read at MI, the reports were things like 'she should have been visible at multiple times when she wasn't'. MI gathered information for where that was on the course, and then using Strava's fly-by capability, figured out because of curves in the road or elevation changes they wouldn't have been able to see her based on where they each were at that time.
Those 'reports' (IMHO) from well known highly accomplished runners is what set of the wild goose chase, looking at splits, pictures, etc. Now with the passage of time, we have to assume (because of nothing more specific and nothing more public) that the heart of these reports is basically a disbelief that she couldn't have possibly done what she did. But again, without any proof or more public details, we have to at this point then assume its just disbelief.
I was all-in on the train that this could be a cheater. But the more I looked into the splits, GPS data, pictures along the course, and Ashley's race resume, the more I was convinced it was indeed possible. Especially if those supposed reports fell apart into nothing.
Looking at the splits and videos, Ashley was within 0-2 miles of Harvey and Lee for 15 hours. 15 hours! At Stovepipe Wells for example (mile 42) Ashley is on video leaving the checkpoint within 5 seconds of Harvey arriving. She arrived at Panamint Springs (mile 72) a mere 4 minutes ahead of Lee. They quite literally watched her slowly run away from them over the course of the day.
There's actually nothing about her race resume that indicates she's going to be head-and-shoulders above Harvey and Lee (and Oswald! ... j/k) going up Father Crowley. Looking at the splits as mere numbers and what is humanly possible is foolish in this situation. It's like saying me or you could run away from Harvey and Lee because we're human and nobody proved we didn't really do it. I know the iFitters are talking about how much she trained, but that volume is not unusual for people running this race. I'd argue that Harvey trained harder than Ashley since he was getting ready for Barkley. It defies logic to believe that she's going to make the gains to surpass him coming from 17:26 in October. Somebody keeps throwing out the "he was faster between Panamint and Darwin" in a different year. Well, by Darwin, he was still on target to run like he did when he ran the race last year. He was having a good day. She's just not as fast at him at 100+ and she's not going to wear down a guy who set the record at Big Dog's Backyard who's having a good run.
Completely agree. And I think it's incredibly obtuse for people to say that because there's "no evidence" we can't talk about it, or speculate about what happened, or how it happened. There are obviously things going on in the aftermath of these results that this message board is not privy to, and I don't think this is just going to blow over.
Harvey would lead the list of least likely to have his ego butthurt.
While that might be true, making a post that seems to allude to this race and then failing to reply when asked, directly, to confirm or deny whether that is the case is hardly the makings of admirable behavior.
If it is about her, he should have the courage to say so.
If it is not, and that was the furthest thing from his mind when he made the post, he should want to clear up the misconception.
If it is about her and he refuses to say so, he strikes me as taking a coward's route.
I agree. Continuing to allude to cheating encourages mob “justice” in this case based on no evidence. It’s bad for the sport, IMO. In this case, the mob has many times promised and encouraged stalking her at races.
Even if she cheated (which is always a possibility), I think subtle hinting posts are a very bad idea, because it is inevitable that a more and more easily-encouraged mob will eventually and mistakenly go after innocent people.
If he thinks she cheated, he can present evidence to the RD or to Ashley’s team or to MI. If he doesn’t get anywhere, he can write something up and present real evidence so at least it can be evaluated. I don’t think it’s a good idea for people’s actions to be judged on another person’s subtle innuendos. On the other hand, if the post is not directed towards her, it’s probably very important to clear that up.
At least this thread has established that there is a butthurt guy named Harvey whose ego is bigger than his running ability.
"she was kicking my ass while we were both running, but she put so much time on me when I was walking that she must have cheated…"
There are gret ultra runners like Killian and Courtney who chrish competition and use it to improve.
Harvey and Camille are showing themelves to be bitter and unaccepting that others may also have talents. Harvey escpecially has acted like he's entitled to some long-distance crown for average speeds.
He obviously saw something sketchy, and evidently what he and the other witnesses saw has gone somewhere, otherwise he wouldn't have posted about it. He was gracious after the race, gracious in working with Derek, and based on his post the other day, I'm going to take a wild guess that this situation has taken a turn since MI attempted to wrap it all up.
Her own community doesn’t believe to she fairly completed Badwater cause of her cheating ways.
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, I wouldn't want to be a member of a club that bitches about you behind your back but not a single member of whom will stand up and say anything publicly. Beyond pathetic.
Her own community doesn’t believe to she fairly completed Badwater cause of her cheating ways.
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, I wouldn't want to be a member of a club that bitches about you behind your back but not a single member of whom will stand up and say anything publicly. Beyond pathetic.
It seems to me that she didn't cheat, or she is "too big to fail" for some reason or combination of reasons.
Her own community doesn’t believe to she fairly completed Badwater cause of her cheating ways.
Her community of those who compete in Iron Mans and triathlons with her as well as her fellow trainers are extremely supportive of her. It is those that are in the ultra community that are coming out as so against her.