Griner is just a pawn in a much bigger game now. Whether she is released early depends on how many concessions Putin can get from Biden for her release.
My guess is that the release will come in less than two months, just in time to energize the Democrat base just prior to the upcoming mid-term election.
I'd put the over/under for the announcement of her release as September 20. She'll be released with much fanfare. She'll return to much fanfare. She'll meet the President who will give a speech on... well... something political. She'll give a speech. This will drag out over a couple of weeks to generate maximum publicity.
Of course, Putin might ask for something the Biden administration won't do. If that happens, she'll sit in jail.
There are some good conservative comedians (MacDonald, Miller, etc.) because Democrats provide plenty of material, but your line did remind me of this: