Corner Canyon is losing their #3, Carter Cutting. I think Mountain View (UT) is going to make it from the SW instead, not sure where they would place here though. Also do you think SW has a chance to send 4 teams this year? They seem to have a lot of depth, but I haven't looked into other regions much.
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
It still looks like Riverton and Mountain View and American Fork are all gonna be really good but I’ll say this:
No one ever heard of Herriman (placed 9th at state) until Doug Soles took over.
This year they are looking to absolutely dominate the state and region. We can already see it based on what they did at Woodbridge.
I would rank the Southwest teams like this:
1. Herriman. Not even close anymore. Their 1-4 are solid. Question is who will get the 5-7 spots for state and Nike, which is still up in the air.
2. Mountain View (strong 1/2 like Herriman but sometimes their scoring seniors like Moore/Waite are inconsistent. If they’re all on they should autoqualify.
3. Riverton. Great pack of 5 but doesn’t have a low stick. Their 1-5 gap is decreasing so if all goes well they should get 3rd and get an at large.
4. American Fork - lost to Riverton at Twiknight. Has a low stick in Simmons.
But they get better every week and could maybe take down Riverton if all of their 5 are on.
Also a very young team (1 senior) that could win state/NXR and possibly NXN next year.
Other teams to watch- Skyridge, Farmington, Corner Canyon (they all beat great oak at Bob Firman. Corner Canyon was leading the race the first 2 miles I think), and lone peak (almost beat AF at twiknight).
I doubt that any Colorado teams will go this year. The #1 spot in Colorado is anyone’s really.
At desert twilight it went like:
1. Valor
2. Cherokee Trail
3. Niwot
It was very close between the 3.
Other CO teams that could surprise them and have a chance to be the best in the state are Cheyenne mountain and Mountain Vista. They are both really deeep, well coached, and had many guys step up over the summer.
Besides Herriman, Southwest isn’t as strong as it used to be (relative to other regions like the Northwest - it’s so much better and deeper than it used to be)
So I don’t think there will be 2 at-large teams but maybe there will be. If there are, Herriman, Mountain View, Riverton and American fork should all go. Maybe some other Utah teams will surprise them.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Utah puts at least 4 teams in front of the #1 CO team in the SW.
Herriman is the league of their own, but the rest of the spots in the region are up for grabs
St A wasn’t very far behind Corning today. Corning might need a 5th runner. MW would have been crushed by them in the merge if mw’s 5th guy was there. But Fairport might still prove you right even though they are young and will be really good again next year.
Best 2 boys teams in each region so far: California- Newbury Park CA / San Clemente CA Granada underperformed at Clovis it seems like.
Northeast- CBA NJ / Union Catholic NJ
New York- Corning NY / St Anthony’s NY Fairport has better guys up front than St A but St A has more depth.
Southwest- Herriman UT / Riverton UT
Midwest- Carmel IN / Plainfield South IL
Southeast- Farragut TN / Brentwood TN Belen beat Brentwood but Brentwood seems to have gotten a lot better. Now Brentwood needs a 5th to secure their spot. Would be nice for Farragut to have a good 4 and 5.
Heartland- Wayzata MN / Dowling Catholic IA Wayzata only got 3rd at Griak but they put 4 guys over the 170 speed rating last meet so they seem a lot better now. Really good for a Heartland team.
South- Jesuit LA / Southlake Carroll TX
Northwest- Jesuit OR / Crater OR Crater’s speed ratings are low but they only raced once since Woodbridge and their SRs were not shown. Rocky Mountain and Eastlake look good too but Eastlake needs a 5th.
Best 2 boys teams in each region so far: California- Newbury Park CA / San Clemente CA Granada underperformed at Clovis it seems like.
Northeast- CBA NJ / Union Catholic NJ
New York- Corning NY / St Anthony’s NY Fairport has better guys up front than St A but St A has more depth.
Southwest- Herriman UT / Riverton UT
Midwest- Carmel IN / Plainfield South IL
Southeast- Farragut TN / Brentwood TN Belen beat Brentwood but Brentwood seems to have gotten a lot better. Now Brentwood needs a 5th to secure their spot. Would be nice for Farragut to have a good 4 and 5.
Heartland- Wayzata MN / Dowling Catholic IA Wayzata only got 3rd at Griak but they put 4 guys over the 170 speed rating last meet so they seem a lot better now. Really good for a Heartland team.
South- Jesuit LA / Southlake Carroll TX
Northwest- Jesuit OR / Crater OR Crater’s speed ratings are low but they only raced once since Woodbridge and their SRs were not shown. Rocky Mountain and Eastlake look good too but Eastlake needs a 5th.
I think you’re overrating the Farragut boys. I think Brentwood and Belen Jesuit are both better.
Best 2 boys teams in each region so far: California- Newbury Park CA / San Clemente CA Granada underperformed at Clovis it seems like.
Northeast- CBA NJ / Union Catholic NJ
New York- Corning NY / St Anthony’s NY Fairport has better guys up front than St A but St A has more depth.
Southwest- Herriman UT / Riverton UT
Midwest- Carmel IN / Plainfield South IL
Southeast- Farragut TN / Brentwood TN Belen beat Brentwood but Brentwood seems to have gotten a lot better. Now Brentwood needs a 5th to secure their spot. Would be nice for Farragut to have a good 4 and 5.
Heartland- Wayzata MN / Dowling Catholic IA Wayzata only got 3rd at Griak but they put 4 guys over the 170 speed rating last meet so they seem a lot better now. Really good for a Heartland team.
South- Jesuit LA / Southlake Carroll TX
Northwest- Jesuit OR / Crater OR Crater’s speed ratings are low but they only raced once since Woodbridge and their SRs were not shown. Rocky Mountain and Eastlake look good too but Eastlake needs a 5th.
I think you’re overrating the Farragut boys. I think Brentwood and Belen Jesuit are both better.
You’re right then. Someone posted in a TN thread that Farragut’s times from this weekend were:
15:13 15:32 15:33 15:39 15:57
but here are their actual results. There was no 15:39 and their 5th was 16:10.
MileSplits official Boys Varsity formatted results for the 2022 Knoxville Interscholastic League Championship, hosted by Metro Knoxville XC in Knoxville TN.
So yeah, Belen is better. That Farragut 15:57 guy probably would have struggled to make Belen’s varsity. Haven’t seen Farragut’s speed ratings for this race yet. Interestingly enough, Farragut beat both of these teams at the southern showcase.
and next year, it will be just like this year in the Southeast when Brentwood and Belen are the best 2 teams in the region. This region is getting stronger.
Would love to see Brentwood find a 5th for this year.
Brentwood has a good freshman-sophomore class so they could make NXN 3 times in a row
Top 10 boys teams 1. Newbury Park CA 2. Jesuit LA 3. Carmel IN 4. Jesuit OR 5. CBA NJ 6. Plainfield South IL 7. Herriman UT 8. Crater OR 9. Rocky Mountain ID 10. Noblesville IN
Aidan Cox is out of the picture. He's been injured since Runninlane. It's a real shame, he was so great and had so much potential for his senior season.
Burns and Hansen are great milers, not so much XC. They probably won't finish top 5 at either national meet. Gorze should be higher up, he got 6th at Eastbay behind 4 seniors.
Also keep an eye out for some of the Massachusetts guys. Not just Marcus Reilly, the junior trio Ross, Burgess, and Lopez have shown good promise. Ross in XC, Burgess in Indoor, and Lopez in Outdoor. one of them could show up in the top 10 at XC next year
Individuals: 1. Leo Young 2. Lex Young 3. Rocky Hansen 4. Hunter Jones 5. Tyrone Gorze 6. Simeon Birnbaum 7. Connor Burns 8. Aaron Sahlman 9. Devan Kipyego 10. Kole Mathison Honorable Mention: Carson Noecker, Connor Ackley, Aidan Cox, Tayson Echohawk, Wes Shipsey, Chris Caudillo, Josiah Tostenson, Sage Wilde, Jason Parra, Carter Spralding, Jimmy Wischusen, Benne Anderson, Seth Norder
Cox just ran a 196 speed rating. I would definitely put him between Jones and Gorze
never will I understand why so much stock is put into speed rating. love Trevor Dunbar, but there's no way he was good for a better performance than Leo young. And that's just one example out of many. randomly clicked on a year in the archives and picked out a name, there are probably many dozens of discrepancies like this
Cox just ran a 196 speed rating. I would definitely put him between Jones and Gorze
never will I understand why so much stock is put into speed rating. love Trevor Dunbar, but there's no way he was good for a better performance than Leo young. And that's just one example out of many. randomly clicked on a year in the archives and picked out a name, there are probably many dozens of discrepancies like this
also this has nothing to do with where cox is/should be. just speed rating in general
So yeah, Belen is better. That Farragut 15:57 guy probably would have struggled to make Belen’s varsity. Haven’t seen Farragut’s speed ratings for this race yet. Interestingly enough, Farragut beat both of these teams at the southern showcase.
and next year, it will be just like this year in the Southeast when Brentwood and Belen are the best 2 teams in the region. This region is getting stronger.
Would love to see Brentwood find a 5th for this year.
Brentwood has a good freshman-sophomore class so they could make NXN 3 times in a row
Now I agree even more. At every position, Farragut speed ratings from this race were worse than Brentwood and Belen at each position. Farragut’s 4/5 is the real weakness. If Brentwood can find a 5th that will be even better but this team seems as good as is for qualifying. But if they do find a 5th they will have a better chance of winning this region. Easier to have just a 5th step up than to have both a 4th and 5th step up
Yeah I would be surprised if any Midwest team beats Carmel or Plainfield South. There is some solid depth behind these teams in this region too. There could be 2 at-large berths here.
Northwest is good too. Eastlake’s 1-4 need to run well and they desperately need a 5th man if they wanna qualify anyhow.
He had a good race at Runninglane but that was really the only good race he had all of last year... it was mentioned in some writeup or another on the state XC or T&F news site that he'd been experiencing growing pains all year last year. He certainly looks a lot taller than before. Good to see him running well again.
What regions do you guys think the at-large berths come from this year? And how many per region? On the boys side I think there will be: at least 1 from Midwest at least 1 from Northwest Possibly 1 from Southwest 1 from California if Granada changes things up
The only way Northwest can send 2 at-large teams is if Eastlake’s 3/4 run a solid race and their 5th man (freshman) closes the gap on them. Jesuit/Crater/Rocky Mountain should all qualify.
Midwest is very good and deep. Could possibly send 2 at-large bids.
Noblesville and Zionsville are really good, and Mason’s top returner from last years state meet just came back and has yet to make the top 7 but there’s still a month left before NXR.
Southwest is not as strong as it used to be. Behind Herriman, any team could get second
