First, to the OP...He's in the field so by nature he's got a chance.
Second, is that he has won at this venue before for the PGA Championship...albeit apparently on a much different course than it plays today.
Third, Tiger is not winning the US Open. He's too erratic off the tee and that major just absolutely punishes you for not putting the ball in the fairway.
Fourth, I seriously doubt he's winning The Open Championships. Weather just isn't good for an old, multiple time surgery body like his. He's even said the cold makes it a lot tougher to get going. Sure he can spray balls all over the place and be "okay", but the conditions are gonna bother him.
Lastly, his performance at this year's Masters was simply amazing. He is ALWAYS going to have a chance at winning that tournament for one reason: experience. He knows every hole from the distance to the breaks to the hills, etc. He knows exactly where to hit every shot for best chances, every club selection, etc. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him win there again.