There is no double standard. I don't expect Schweizer to ever beat her 5k PR. I don't expect Houlihan to beat hers either. Not Cranny. Not Frerichs. Not Norris. Kelati, maybe. Monson, maybe. Purrier, yes. Tuohy, yes. But 14:5x is the likely ceiling because only 8 women have gone faster.
we're nearing to the conclusion of this thread, its katelyn's last 5000m race of the season or maybe not (who know's)
drop your final predictions!
mine's gonna be 15:03 if the weather is good
Besides the heat, it’s not the kind of race where she is likely to PR. One year in Sacramento, three runners at around 9:05 qualified for state. 2 of them tried to keep up with the leaders and ended up running 9:20+ while the 3rd ran a personal TT and got a PR. For this race, the pace is likely to be slow and I don’t see Touhy wanting to run 50+ meters ahead of the pack to shoot for a PR.
hayward magic will fix that weather down, hopefully.
you mean shes unlikely to pr even if the weather is ok? why not? this field is the best and fastest? when katelyn ran 15:14 and she was only paced till 1800m, she ran up front after pacers dropped out..katelyn was running low 15:10s pace in that race, pacing herself - but she was still working on her closing speed at that time so she only closed in 2:25 -- now in her recent 2 races, she closed 2:17- 2:18
There is no double standard. I don't expect Schweizer to ever beat her 5k PR. I don't expect Houlihan to beat hers either. Not Cranny. Not Frerichs. Not Norris. Kelati, maybe. Monson, maybe. Purrier, yes. Tuohy, yes. But 14:5x is the likely ceiling because only 8 women have gone faster.
you need to stop putting ceiling on women's distance running just because only 8 women have gone faster for the past 20 years
dont worry, many women will go faster than 14:5x in the next few years
Besides the heat, it’s not the kind of race where she is likely to PR. One year in Sacramento, three runners at around 9:05 qualified for state. 2 of them tried to keep up with the leaders and ended up running 9:20+ while the 3rd ran a personal TT and got a PR. For this race, the pace is likely to be slow and I don’t see Touhy wanting to run 50+ meters ahead of the pack to shoot for a PR.
katelyn was running low 15:10s pace in that race, pacing herself - but she was still working on her closing speed at that time so she only closed in 2:25 -- now in her recent 2 races, she closed 2:17- 2:18
apples and oranges. She was faster at 1K, 2k, 3K, 4K and 5K (even with the slower close) in that race vs the last 2 races. It's natural her close has been faster off the slower pace in the last 2 races. That doesn't mean today she could close faster than she did that day off the same pace, hot weather or not, although not having to lead would help. If the race is run at a decent temperature and a 15:05-10 pace she has a shot to break 15:10. But that combination seems less likely to me. The best runners know they can close very fast and all they want is top 3.
you mean shes unlikely to pr even if the weather is ok? why not? this field is the best and fastest?
These races tend to be slow and tactical. If you look at the winning times in the 5000 since 2012, only 3 have gone faster than 15:13. Since tactical races finish with a big kick at the end off a slow pace, they aren't the kind of race where KT will finish well.
Add in the likely weather in Eugene and the history suggests it's unlikely she'll pr.
How fast do you expect Cook and Hutchins will run over the next few years? No limits on women's running. You opened my eyes. I think they both will run 14:30 before done with college.
Besides the heat, it’s not the kind of race where she is likely to PR. One year in Sacramento, three runners at around 9:05 qualified for state. 2 of them tried to keep up with the leaders and ended up running 9:20+ while the 3rd ran a personal TT and got a PR. For this race, the pace is likely to be slow and I don’t see Touhy wanting to run 50+ meters ahead of the pack to shoot for a PR.
hayward magic will fix that weather down, hopefully.
you mean shes unlikely to pr even if the weather is ok? why not? this field is the best and fastest? when katelyn ran 15:14 and she was only paced till 1800m, she ran up front after pacers dropped out..katelyn was running low 15:10s pace in that race, pacing herself - but she was still working on her closing speed at that time so she only closed in 2:25 -- now in her recent 2 races, she closed 2:17- 2:18
It’s not like a marathon where there’s a 6:30 pace group or a 7:00 one. The race is unlikely to to be strung out where she can select people to run with that are running the perfect pace for her to PR.
Once again, closing speed is contingent on having something left in the tank and Touhy will not kick off of 15:00 pace. The reason she faded at the XC championships last fall, but has had good finishes this year, is because of improved fitness.
She fell at the XC championship. Had to work hard to catch back up with the leaders.
She also developed her kick during XC season? Every runner she races against does speed work so what does Touhy do differently to develop her closing speed? Wouldn’t the other runners want to do the same thing or is it secret training only known to Tuohy and her coach?
She always had closing speed, although she rarely had to use it in high school. Her competitors talked about it. The difference is she is fully healthy now after her surgery and fully trained up. (She was slightly injured during the XC season). Her kick is based on natural ability. She trains to improve her kick, as we saw in that flotrack video, but that is no secret. You either have it or you don't. People also just tend to forget that when she started to emerge it was running age group records in the 1500. That 4:06 did not come out of no where.
She always had closing speed, although she rarely had to use it in high school. Her competitors talked about it. The difference is she is fully healthy now after her surgery and fully trained up. (She was slightly injured during the XC season). Her kick is based on natural ability. She trains to improve her kick, as we saw in that flotrack video, but that is no secret. You either have it or you don't. People also just tend to forget that when she started to emerge it was running age group records in the 1500. That 4:06 did not come out of no where.
I agree with all that except for the training to improve her kick. Does it mean she borrows a few seconds from her TT capability to improve her kick? I believe that maximizing TT potential is beneficial for every possible race scenario.
Kick. No kick. Winning is what matters. She won't ble close to qualifying this week. It will be hot which will puch the winning time iver 15 minutes but Tuohy will run 15:30 and look like a death march over the last 1600.
Well gosh darn. My bubbles burst. And here I thought she was the favorite to win. LOL.
Come to think of it, if it is really hot, I say she attacks from the first lap. None of the pros will cover it. You only live once.
You’re right, if she attacks, the pros won’t cover the first lap but the next 11.5 won’t go so well for her.
She’s already a great NCAA runner but she’s not ready to race the pros. Her last 80Om at the NCAAs was the same pace that Schweizer has run for the entire distance.
Well gosh darn. My bubbles burst. And here I thought she was the favorite to win. LOL.
Come to think of it, if it is really hot, I say she attacks from the first lap. None of the pros will cover it. You only live once.
You’re right, if she attacks, the pros won’t cover the first lap but the next 11.5 won’t go so well for her.
She’s already a great NCAA runner but she’s not ready to race the pros. Her last 80Om at the NCAAs was the same pace that Schweizer has run for the entire distance.
no the next 8 will go fine. the last 3 or so, not so fine