Which US prep runners have a chance at sub-4 mile this year and how many actually do it?

Sahlman.

The real question is will any of them break 4 after high school? I believe NP has a productive program but lets be realistic.

Gary Martin should be in the "strong probability" category after running 4:03 last year.

And I don't think Kenan Pala should be on these lists . . . he proved that he is very, very good at XC but seems more like a 2 miler to me and his 1600 PR is 4:20, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Agreed on your second point with Kenan. I didn't totally want to leave him off the list because he was so strong in xc, but looking at past PRs in track makes me think it would be very unlikely for him to break 4.

Gary seems to me to be a pure miler type. Three + seconds is still a lot of time and he didn't do anything in XC to make me think he has improved that much. That being said he could do it. I would love to see that.

Sahlman-3:58

Lex Young-3:59

Harrison-4:00

Leo Young-4:00

Martin-4:01

8 more guys at 4:05 or faster

What do you mean? You think they will break 4 but not improve in college? Nico improved.

Coach of high guys wrote:

What do you mean? You think they will break 4 but not improve in college? Nico improved.

Don't even get sucked into that argument.

C. Sahlman 80%

Bergen 75%

Sherry 70%

Harrison 60%

Young twins 50%

A. Sahlman 50%

Hough 35%

Martin 35%

Anyone else 30%

I believe the OP is putting too much weight in this fall’s XC results, and is likely too optimistic about this group’s sub-4 prospects.

I’ll say Sahlman does it (3:57-58) and one other, probably a teammate.

NP will have four guys, one a senior, do it.

RunningLane was a 3 mile course. None of these guys goes sub 4.

Wait a second. We have 12 prep runners to date under 4 min and now you are giving six a better then 50% chance? This is way to optimistic. I say 20% one of them does it, at best, with Colin Sahlman being most likely. Kenan Pala might break 4:10. How many times you think these runners will each even attempt the mile? No credit for a sub 4 1600.

Fisher's HS 5k PR was 14:43 and he managed to break 4. Forget Garmin, Sahlman ran 13:48 for 3 miles and 14:26 at other locations. So tell us again why he can't break 4 if Fisher did it with a much slower XC time?

His pr is 5 sec too slow right now. It’s only been done by 12 HS runners over almost 60 years. It’s really hard to do even for the best of the best. Sahlman might, but it’s not going to be easy. How many chances will he get? I’m sure he’ll be more focused on longer races.

I believe Gavin Sherry will do it and I believe he is the most likely of the group to do it. He ran a 4:01 1600 as a junior. Colin Sahlman is 2nd most likely to do it, followed by Riley Hough.

As usual, half the people in the thread are ridiculously optimistic, and the other half ridiculously pessimistic.

Clearly, Sahlman has a shot. 3:46 and 4:04 last year, and he had the strongest XC season of any prep this season. There’s nothing to suggest he’s significantly worse than Reed Brown, Matthew Maton, or Grant Fisher over 800m (1:53 junior PR and didn’t run it very much). I believe he can do it, but he’ll need to focus on it and take at least two real shots. I’m not sure he will, as Brosnan has historically always said he wants his athletes to focus on the 3000 and 5000, and their training is focused on that. So I’d give him a maybe 50% chance of doing it.

Outside of Sahlman, Sherry and Bergen seem the most likely. Both were impressive this fall and Sherry had a 4:01 1600 from last year, while Bergen had a 4:03 mile. Sherry just opened with a 4:06 mile, which is extremely impressive for early January. Bergen also has a 1:51 to his name which is great speed for a guy as good at XC as him. So I’ll also give them a 50% shot.

Martin had a 4:03 from last year, which definitely puts him in the conversation. However, he ran that in a near-perfect race (lots of competition, fast pace). He also didn’t have as impressive a fall, though he did run a very good 14:49 at Paul Short early in the season. He does seem the most likely to focus exclusively on the mile though. I give him a 25% chance.

The rest fall somewhere in the 10-25% area. Pala has the cross credentials but there’s absolutely no proof he can run the mile, though clearly he’s on an upward trajectory. Harrison is the opposite, pretty much a pure miler that’s been on a downward trajectory since that 4:01 his sophomore year. Covid was difficult for some athletes though, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in a more normal year. The rest are pretty much all great runners but with nothing in particular to set them apart as far as a sub-4:00 is concerned (though I expect sub-8:00 and sun-14:00 will be a different story).

Overall, I feel confident more than one prep will break 4:00 this year, and I will cautiously predict three will do it. However, I believe it will be 2/3 of Sahlman, Sherry and Bergen, and one more outside of those three.

Here are the junior PRs of all sub-4:00 HS milers since Webb:

Hobbs Kessler: 4:08

Alan Webb: 4:03

Drew Hunter: 4:02

Reed Brown: 4:04

Matthew Maton: 4:03

Grant Fisher: 4:02

Michael Slagowski: 4:08

Leo Daschbach: 4:03

Lukas Verzbicas: 4:04

Of these 9 runners; 7 ran under 4:05 as a junior. So anybody over 4:05 as a junior is already looking at a pretty low chance of going under 4:00, no matter how well they run in XC.

6 of them were top 3 at a national meet in XC. 4 were national champions. I'll also note that Kessler had no real national championship to attend, and pre-injury, Daschbach was the only guy in the country who could hang with Nico Young, and a clear top 3 pick.

Lastly, 7 of them had 800 PBs under 1:52. 4 had PBs under 1:50. The other two were Fisher and Verzbicas, who never ran the open 800 as a junior or senior. They were also both 2-time Foot Locker champions, which none of the current crop can claim.

So now let's look at the contenders. Sherry is the top returner at 4:03 (converted from 4:01 1600). He was under 4:05 as a junior, so that's one box checked. He was also third at Eastbay this year, so he checks that box too. His current 800 PR is 1:54, set at a dual meet. This isn't ideal, but it shows potential for maybe a 1:50 performance this year, which would set him up great to run sub-4:00. If he does that, all he needs is the right race and I think he can do it.

Martin is the next returner, also at 4:03. His 800 PR is 1:53, which is solid. However, he ran it quite a bit more than Sherry, and set that mark in a competitive race. He also failed to place top 3 at a national meet, which is a big strike. Slagowski is really the only guy who was uncompetitive in XC who ever broke 4:00 and he had 1:48 speed and a ridiculous improvement curve. Martin has a chance, but I'm gonna predict a no for him unfortunately.

Next up is Bergen, also at 4:03. If I had to give my top pick for sub-4:00 this year, it would be him. 4:03 as a junior leaves him with only 4 seconds to drop, and his 1:51 at altitude as a junior indicates he has all the speed he needs. His only knock is that he was only 4th at XC nationals, but he was also 4th at BOTH meets. That's impressive enough to give him a great shot in my book.

The other big contender is Sahlman, at 4:04. The only other returner under 4:05, he was dominant outside of his season opener this fall, and clearly is a phenomenally talented distance runner, the best in his class right now. However, his speed is a little bit less impressive. 1:53 is fine, but he will need to improve a bit to break 4:00. However, he did run that a league meet, so it may be that has a 1:50 or so in there. If so, I think he also has a good shot.

Finally, I'll mention Rheinhardt Harrison. After his 4:01 as a sophomore, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would break 4:00 in high school. However, his races since then have been very much a mixed bag. He ran 1:51 and 4:06 in March last year, and 8:47 in early April. Everything since has been a downward trajectory though. He was undefeated this fall, but he also never really attempted to race any national level meets. Still, he checks 2 out of 3 boxes and is not really a slouch in XC, just untested. If he can figure out how to peak correctly and get in the right race when he's ready for it, I think he has sub-4:00 ability.

Of the rest, the simple fact of being over 4:05 last year nearly automatically disqualifies them from the conversation. Hough and the Youngs were impressive enough in XC that maybe they will give it a scare, but their speed is extremely worrisome (Leo at 1:58, Hough at 1:59, Lex with no time). They have the strength, but I am doubtful of their ability to click off sub-60 quarters. I also don't think anyone else has any kind of shot. The next-best candidate is maybe Izaiah Steury (1:52/4:09, 8th at Eastbay) but he seems like a pretty clear-cut "good, but not good enough" type. Maybe someone will prove me wrong, but I doubt it.

Statistically no one has a >50% chance of breaking 4

You are incorrect. I give Sahlman a 80% chance.