West Region At-Large bids

Portland crushes Zona for auto.

I would love to see it, but lets be honest, that's not going to happen. Just look at the match ups head to head:

Cheseret beats all of Portlands runners even on an off day. Mutanya beats all of Portlands runners if he just runs as he has all year. They even have a good chance of going 1-2 as they did at Pac 10's. If Regionals goes true to form even Maiyo and Trafeh beat all of Portlands runners. At best they alternate...Kilburg, Maiyo, Moore, Trafeh, Kinsella, Mpanga...the rest of the way out. Even if by some miracle Moore and Kinsella find the form they seem to have been lacking this year and beat Maiyo and Trafeh they still don't have nearly as good a 4th and 5th runner as Arizona. I wouldn't be surprised if Portland has twice the team score of Arizona...something like Arizona 50, Portland 110.

Next year my friend.

trafeh and mpanga are hurt or fasting is slowing them...in either case, both are less than full speed.

Cal Poly gets an at large as long as no two of the following blockers beats them: Oregon, Cal, UCSB, UCLA, ASU...if only one of those winless team beats them (doesn't matter where in the order) they get in. Same for Washington. Same for Arizona. Same for Portland. Same for Stanford should they not finish in the top 2. Realistically Stanford, Portland, Arizona, Cal Poly and Washington should all get in (depending on other regions..but in all likely scenarios these five teams will have enough points to get in) and if only one of the above blockers breaks up these that team will get pushed. If two of those blockers break up the favorites and they are immediately next to each other in the order, they and all those behind them are out...for example:

1.Stanford

2.Portland

3.Arizona

4.Cal...blocker

5.ASU...blocker

6.Washington

7.Cal Poly

No pushes. only three teams in.

If two of the blockers break up the favorites and they are not immediately next to each other the first will be pushed by the team behind them but the second will block out the team behind them (push rule can only be used once per region) for example

1. Stanford

2. Portland

3. Arizona

4. Cal...blocker

5. Cal Poly

6. UCLA...blocker

7. Washington

5 teams in. Cal Poly pushes Cal. ASU blocks Washington. Unless one or more of these blockers can get in the top two this region will max out at 6 teams. If one blocker gets in the top 2, the region could get 7, and if two blockers get in the top 2 the region could get 8...

most likely: 6 stanford, portland, arizona, cal poly, washington and one of the blockers beating one or more of these teams for a push.

Cal no better than 6th on a great day. Look for Zona, Cardinal hurting :-(

Yeah, stanford will not win...I don't remember who but I'm pretty sure two of their top five are done for the season. I believe they got injured during the pac-10 race.

I see Stanford in 3rd.