Cincy got shafted by the CFP Committee

I am a big fan of conference champs getting in. I woukd put Iowa and Baylor in with wins.

Tougher than running wrote:

I am a big fan of conference champs getting in. I woukd put Iowa and Baylor in with wins.

Yeah, about that… which conference does ND play in?

In any event, Cincy is in if they take care of business. It’s that simple. I’m both pulling for them and I’m not. I just can’t see them keeping pace with a Georgia or Michigan.

I had Ok St seeded fairly high at the beginning of this thread, and they are a pretty solid team. Even with an “average” win over Baylor, they deserve to be in the CFP.

What would really suck is if Bama wins, because then the SEC gets two in, squeezing someone else out.

the macdaddy og yoo wrote:

It is my opinion that a two-loss team will not get in over a one-loss ND.

I'm glad it's only your opinion because that's not what is going to happen.

If Bama loses a close one to Georgia they'll take Bama over ND in a heartbeat. ND simply isn't that good this year with that cheesy independent schedule. Sure their only loss is to #4 Cinncinati but they really haven't played anyone worth a crap and they're not in a conference which is also going to hurt them. Why do think Kelly is high-tailing it out of there for LSU? He's tired of ND not playing in a conference which significantly hurts their playoff chances every year. Lol.

☝️ I'll go as far and say that Oklahoma St has got win big over Baylor or a 2 loss Bama could be taken over the Big-12 champion.

- The only guaranteed spot is Georgia - lose and they're in no matter what (even if they get blown out).

- Michigan & Cinncinati control their own destiny - win and you're in.👍

- Oklahoma St needs to win big and they need some help.

- ND will stay home devastated unless Oklahoma St & either Cinn or Michigan loses.

Thanks for your attention guys. 👌

A lot of you think it's win and you're in for Cincy. That's not the case. The committee is biased against non power 5 excluding Notre Dame. If Michigan and Oklahoma St win, they will be in. The biased committee will point to Cincy's poor strength of schedule and move OkSt ahead of them if the final spot comes down to Cincy/OkState. Just watch. Then there's Bama, who could get in over Cincy with a win for sure or even a close loss to Georgia. But if OkSt loses, then Cincy will get in for sure. That's the only scenario that guarantees Cincy a spot, an OkState loss. Again, don't believe me? Just watch.

I really don't see Bama getting in even with a close loss, as long as the others take care of business. You'd have GA, Mich, Cincinnati, Ok St. Only debate is if Ok St. should jump Cincinnati for #3. Bama just isn't that impressive. Only one good win with Ole Miss, and barely beat a bad Florida, a bad LSU, and a bad Auburn. Could easily have 4 losses right now. 5 if you consider they only beat Arkansas by a TD.

I agree.

Who is going to make the CFP? Here’s your answer.

Win - Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Cincinnati 88%

Oklahoma State 64%

Notre Dame 30%

Alabama 20%

Win - Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Cincinnati 96%

Notre Dame 61%

Alabama 43%

Oklahoma State <1%

Win - Georgia, Michigan, Houston, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Oklahoma State 81%

Notre Dame 67%

Alabama 50%

Cincinnati 2%

Win - Georgia, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Cincinnati 95%

Oklahoma State 82%

Notre Dame 54%

Alabama 39%

Michigan 30%

Win - Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State

Michigan 98%

Alabama 97%

Georgia 96%

Cincinnati 67%

Oklahoma State 28%

Notre Dame 14%

Win - Georgia, Michigan, Houston, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Notre Dame 97%

Alabama 94%

Cincinnati 4%

Oklahoma State 3%

Win - Georgia, Iowa, Cincinnati, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Cincinnati 99%

Notre Dame 78%

Alabama 66%

Michigan 56%

Oklahoma State <1%

Win - Georgia, Iowa, Houston, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Oklahoma State 89%

Notre Dame 80%

Alabama 68%

Michigan 60%

Cincinnati 3%

Win - Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, Baylor

Georgia 98%

Michigan 98%

Cincinnati 84%

Alabama 98%

Notre Dame 22%

Oklahoma State <1%

Win - Alabama, Michigan, Houston, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Alabama >99%

Oklahoma State 54%

Notre Dame 47%

Cincinnati <1%

Win - Alabama, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Alabama 98%

Cincinnati 87%

Oklahoma State 58%

Notre Dame 39%

Michigan 19%

Win – Georgia, Iowa, Houston, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Notre Dame >99%

Alabama 99%

Michigan 98%

Oklahoma State 2%

Cincinnati <1%

Win - Alabama, Michigan, Houston, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Michigan >99%

Alabama >99%

Notre Dame 97%

Cincinnati 2%

Oklahoma State 1%

Win - Alabama, Iowa, Cincinnati, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Alabama >99%

Cincinnati 94%

Notre Dame 69%

Michigan 38%

Oklahoma State <1%

Win - Alabama, Iowa, Houston, Oklahoma State

Georgia >99%

Alabama >99%

Oklahoma State 77%

Notre Dame 75%

Michigan 48%

Cincinnati 1%

Win - Alabama, Iowa, Houston, Baylor

Georgia >99%

Alabama >99%

Notre Dame 99%

Michigan 96%

Oklahoma State 3%

Cincinnati 2%

Best Case Scenario

Georgia – 14 of 16 scenarios = >99%

Alabama – 5 of 16 scenarios = > 99%

Michigan – win = 98%->99%

Notre Dame – Georgia, Iowa, Houston, and Baylor win = >99%

Cincinnati – Georgia, Iowa, and Baylor win = 99%

Oklahoma State – Georgia, Iowa, and Houston win = 89%

Worst Case Scenario

Georgia – Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State win = 96%

Alabama – Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State win = 20%

Michigan – Alabama, Iowa, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State win = 19%

Notre Dame – Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State win = 14%

Cincinnati - Alabama, Michigan, Houston, and Oklahoma State win OR Georgia, Iowa, Houston, and Baylor win = <1%

Oklahoma State – 4 of 16 scenarios = <1%

* Georgia makes the playoffs in all 16 possible scenarios

* Alabama 12 scenarios

* Notre Dame 11 scenarios

* Michigan 10 scenarios

* Cincinnati 8 scenarios

* Oklahoma State 7 scenarios

Georgia 50 Alabama 0

Iowa 50 Michigan 0

Houston 50 Cincinnati 0

Baylor 50 Ok St 0

Pitt 50 Wake 0

Oregon 50 Oregon St 0

Who gets in then?

Georgia, Baylor, Ohio State, Notre Dame

Everyone start getting ready for the whining about how Notre Dame shouldn’t be in the playoffs 😂

Things are starting off right for Alabama and Notre Dame. They needed Baylor to win in a close game and that is exactly what happened. OSU is eliminated and Baylor has no chance either.

Alabama definitely deserves a spot in the CFP, win or lose, after this performance against Georgia. They are just rolling all over the #1 defense in the country.

Georgia's defense:

230.4 yds/gm - #1

6.9 points/gm - #1

151.5 pass yds/gm - #2

78.9 rush yards/gm - #3

At halftime, Alabama:

365 total yards

24 points

286 passing yards

79 rushing yards

Georgia had given up only seven offensive touchdowns all season, only three in the first three quarters. They have given up three in the first half already.

So until Michigan plays it looks like

Alabama, Georgia, Cincinnati and ??

coach wrote:

So until Michigan plays it looks like

Alabama, Georgia, Cincinnati and ??

Michigan wins and gets in or ND is in. A two-loss Michigan that is not a conference champion does not get in.

Let's assume Michigan wins and Alabama holds on.

The committee will separate Georgia and Alabama (they won't be 1-4 or 2-3).

1) Michigan

2)Alabama

3) Cincy

4) Georgia

or

1) Alabama

2) Michigan

3) Georgia

4) Cincy

Cincinnati just might make it in wrote:

Things are starting off right for Alabama and Notre Dame. They needed Baylor to win in a close game and that is exactly what happened. OSU is eliminated and Baylor has no chance either.

Oklahoma St choked. Lol. So no controversy now with Cinn (up 35-10 late in the 4th as I type this). Georgia looks terrible & Bennett is pathetic just throwing a pick 6. Lol. Georgia getting hammered 38-17 in the 4th. 🤣

Assuming Michigan wins tonight, the question becomes: Who is #1?

* Alabama (12-1), only loss to Texas A&M (#25 now, unranked at the time)

* Michigan (12-1), only loss to Michigan State (#11 now, #8 at the time)

* Georgia (12-1), only loss to #3 Alabama

Georgia obviously has the "best" loss of the three and dominated throughout the season. But how can you put Georgia ahead of Alabama after Alabama just beat them? And if they honestly rate the three, Michigan is certainly NOT the best of the three. Alabama might be the best team, but they lost to an unranked team, while Georgia lost to #3 and Michigan lost to #8.

Maybe they should just make the only undefeated team in the country, Cincinnati, the #1 team :)

coach wrote:

So until Michigan plays it looks like

Alabama, Georgia, Cincinnati and ??

Well...we need to wait until the Big 10 championship tonight. Very simple formula here: Michigan wins and they're in. They lose & I think ND punches their ticket with their new head coach.

If Michigan loses, they'll probably give Ohio State the spot. No chance ND gets in.

Vineyard Vines wrote:

If Michigan loses, they'll probably give Ohio State the spot. No chance ND gets in.

ND would get in because the committee would want to prove that they won't punish the players for the coach leaving them in the lurch.

Michigan wins and gets in, or loses and ND is in.

The committee must show some ethics, and even more so because Brian Kelly's are so questionable.