How long to run sub-3 marathon starting from near 0?

I'd say a little under 3 hours would achieve it.

4

Rage Canada wrote:

How long would it take an average male (say 5'10", 180lbs) to get to sub-3 marathon shape? Assume they have a "base" which is 5 runs of 3 miles @ 11:00 pace, and that injuries aren't an issue. 3-4 years?

Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years.

At 5'10" and 195 pounds, with no running/fitness background, after 4 months training I ran my first marathon in 3:02 - not quite sub 3 on the first try for me, but it's doable.

At one point I was around 5'10" 180, and at another point I ran a sub-3 marathon. There were around 7 years in between. If you're young, it would probably go faster. But you're probably looking at

-1-2 years to get to a healthier weight through a more careful diet and more active lifestyle

- 1 year to start running and do some first 5K races

- 1-2 years to work on 10K-HM races

- 1 year to build up to a first marathon

Some people will manage it a lot faster. Some never will, no matter how motivated they are.

Average male (say 5'10", 180lbs): probably never.

Sub three hours is a lot harder than you think. If you are not talented enough you have to run 60-80 miles per week and that will kill you. Injuries will be an issue.

I would recommend that you gently get your weekly mileage up to 30-40 and run a Half Marathon and go from there.

If you were hyper diligent about slowly increasing your mileage (~5% a week) and taking easy weeks once a month, and stayed healthy (big if), you could get to 60-65 miles a week within a year. If you don't change your diet much (or even improve it), I would hope you would be in the 160s by then from the extra mileage. At that point, it's just about picking your race date and building normally through planned workouts. If you can peak around 75-80, the first 20 miles of a marathon are pretty easy with super shoes.

During that first base building year, I probably wouldn't bother with workouts outside of maybe some fartleks and hill sprints mixed in with your normal runs to build strength / keep things interesting. Anything else is just going to increase chance of injury / burnout.

Start losing weight now via a calorie deficit while you're still running 15mpw. You should comfortably be able to shed 15-20lbs in 4 months by cutting 500 calories a day. That could be as simple as skipping dessert after dinner or substantially reducing your alcohol consumption. Or cut 300 calories a day and walk an extra 30 minutes a day to burn 200 calories.

Once you start ramping up mileage, it becomes harder (but not impossible) to lose weight. Hard workouts and 12+ mile long runs suck while on a substantial calorie deficit.

You could in theory hit sub-3 in 2 years depending how talented you are.

I'd do something like

- 4 months of 15mpw while getting your weight in check (160lbs would be a good target)

- 8 months of base building up to 40-50mpw - all easy running, with maybe one workout a week.

- 6 month focus on half-marathon

- 6 months to focus on the marathon

Here's a video that may be helpful:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_tSSCFiXmA

Step 1. Run a 26-27 min 8k.

Step 2. Tell everyone you could have run a sub 3 marathon if you wanted.

Step3. Profit

Last video was 5 months ago. Wha happen?

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

https://runrepeat.com/how-do-you-masure-up-the-runners-percentile-calculator

1 year should cut it, assuming average male in his prime and that he actually puts in the work.

lurker wrote:

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

https://runrepeat.com/how-do-you-masure-up-the-runners-percentile-calculator

This is the correct response.

lurker wrote:

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

https://runrepeat.com/how-do-you-masure-up-the-runners-percentile-calculator

this is only because the vast majority of those recreational runners don't even bother to run competitively in the first place not that they can't or will not run it ever even if they give it a serious go.

Don't know what happened to him. While he's not exactly a super-star runner (I believe he ran a 3:30 marathon PR), he offers a ton of great advice as a physical therapist.

I loved his videos and have incorporated a lot of his routines into my training.

Sledge_Hammer wrote:

[quote]lurker wrote:

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

this is only because the vast majority of those recreational runners don't even bother to run competitively in the first place not that they can't or will not run it ever even if they give it a serious go.

^ This. I know tons of hobby joggers who do Hal Higdon Novice 1 for their yearly marathon and finish somewhere in the 4-5 hour range. And they are perfectly happy with that.

I'd bet a lot of them could do <3:30 with 4 months of real base training + following at least Higdon's Intermediate 2 plan, which is still not super ambitious (three 20-mile long runs, topping out at 50mpw, only 5 days of running).

A lot of people simply are unable or unwilling to put the time in.

Ernest wrote:

Rage Canada wrote:

How long would it take an average male (say 5'10", 180lbs) to get to sub-3 marathon shape? Assume they have a "base" which is 5 runs of 3 miles @ 11:00 pace, and that injuries aren't an issue. 3-4 years?

Everyone's different, but it doesn't have to take years.

At 5'10" and 195 pounds, with no running/fitness background, after 4 months training I ran my first marathon in 3:02 - not quite sub 3 on the first try for me, but it's doable.

I‘m gonna take a wild guess that your easy pace wasn‘t 11 min/mile whem you started. Correct me if I‘m wrong, but otherwise there is absolutely ZERO connection b/w you and this guy.

Slow Bro wrote:

Last video was 5 months ago. Wha happen?

James figured out that running a sub 3 Marathon is a lot harder than he initially thought.

Rage Canada wrote:

How long would it take an average male (say 5'10", 180lbs) to get to sub-3 marathon shape? Assume they have a "base" which is 5 runs of 3 miles @ 11:00 pace, and that injuries aren't an issue. 3-4 years?

Your name shows that you've been around long enough to know this name. Why else have a name that is a play on another person who generates a fair amount of controversy?

But if you are serious, then you cannot say injuries are not an issue if 15 miles at 11 pace is your baseline. The greatest runners ever have dealt with injuries. You will to.

That said, if you are truly dedicated to training and diet, and if you add in additional cross training, then I say it is possible in a year. You "could" do it at 180 pounds, but you are better off around 160. That takes time. A major injury at any point will delay this.

In April 2008 I was 284.6 pounds at 5'11. I started to lose weight that summer on a bike, and started running in Jan 2009 at 200 pounds flat. In just 5 months I ran my first race, a half, in 1:36, and about 1.75 years after I started running, I ran 10k in 39 flat and a half in 1:27, never exceeding 38 miles in any single week. I did get to 175 pounds but didn't happen to race at that weight, and was never really concerned with marathons, although I had several mid 1:20s half marathons, and a joke marathon in 3:04 at 195 pounds (but that was 3.5 years after starting to run).

lurker wrote:

The average male (you appear to be asking a hypothetical, not really about “you”), will not run a 3 hour marathon ever. The median male recreational runner will manage 4:15. A comparison of PRs would be somewhat faster, but still no where close to 3hr mark.

https://runrepeat.com/how-do-you-masure-up-the-runners-percentile-calculator

The average male will never run a marathon ever.

Even the 4:15 Marathoner is above average.

A sub 3 hour Marathoner is more like 3-5% of the top.