Name my marathon pace for Chicago

If you ran 1:34 6 weeks ago and have a running background I'd think you could run 3:20 fairly easily, maybe even 3:15 on a good day

I think 3:25-3:30 is your range based on your half time.

I find pace groups to be terribly annoying. Your mileage may vary. There's always one leader that can't talk a reasonable amount.

Sounds to me like that 8:00 pacer group is a good idea. Personally, if I were you, I'd stick to that pace up to 20 miles before you decide you feel great and want to go faster.

Good luck!

Flagpole wrote:

Sounds to me like that 8:00 pacer group is a good idea. Personally, if I were you, I'd stick to that pace up to 20 miles before you decide you feel great and want to go faster.

Good luck!

Was going to say exactly this. Sounds like you could run 3:15-20 but running with the 8:00 pace group will set you up to have a good experience & get your BQ. I would sit in that pack, zone out, eat/drink as much as you can, and move ahead of the group at 20ish if you're still feeling good. In my experience with pace groups, chaos ensues around 20ish as people fall off, maintain, or speed up.

NERunner0353 wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Sounds to me like that 8:00 pacer group is a good idea. Personally, if I were you, I'd stick to that pace up to 20 miles before you decide you feel great and want to go faster.

Good luck!

Was going to say exactly this. Sounds like you could run 3:15-20 but running with the 8:00 pace group will set you up to have a good experience & get your BQ. I would sit in that pack, zone out, eat/drink as much as you can, and move ahead of the group at 20ish if you're still feeling good. In my experience with pace groups, chaos ensues around 20ish as people fall off, maintain, or speed up.

Yeah, that's the right approach here. Great minds think alike!

Thanks everyone! Yeah a pacing group will keep my pace on track and maintaining an 8:00 pace doesn't seem too scary, so I think I can do it. Will assess around mile 15/16 and maybe break away, slowly, then if I feel great-otherwise around mile 20.

I am probably at a similar level compared to you in terms of fitness (I ran a 1:35 HM as part of 18 miles run a couple weeks ago), and I did a 20 miler at 8:00 pace last week, still feeling strong at the end. My guess is if you hold back in 1st half you will still have plenty left to kick it up at the end and get that BQ.

Sounds a plan - good luck!

Whatever you do, don't make any moves AT ALL at mile 5!! :)

Assess around that time, but also bear in mind the terrain of the marathon; don't make any moves before mile 18-20 if there are big hills from 15-20. After that, world's your oyster.

Thanks! Which marathon are you training for? Best of luck to you too!

OK so given weather forecast for Chicago (warm and humid) and other people's posts about adjusting pace expectations, any thoughts on adjusting my pace from running with the 8:00/mile pace group to the next one, which is 8:12/mile? (Would mean a 3:35 time vs. 3:30).

I kind of want to run between those paces, like an 8:05 ish, as 8:00/mile to start in this weather makes me a little apprehensive. 8:12/mile pace group may be the smart move though, at least til halfway or more when I can reevaluate.

Thoughts?

TIA!

If you just ran 1:34 you were running at about a 7.18 pace or so. I'm not sure what is normal but back in the day the difference between my half marathon and full marathon pace was about 25 seconds/mile and I think I underperformed at the marathon so they should have been closer. Based on your training (which is impressive - I don't know anybody who runs 90 - 100 miles/week just because they like to run) I'd say you should stick to the 8:00 pace

Chicago seems to be one of those races where conditions can be either ideal or brutal. I live in the suburbs and we are going from 60F to 80F right now from one day to the next. Ideally you would have done some 800M or mile repeats but to be honest your training as described is pretty intense for someone only shooting for an 8:00 pace

Thanks! I def have not been running 90-100 miles/week, my highest mileage was 48. So, steady training, but not high mileage. Appreciate your input! And yes, the weather variation is crazy right now!

I'll share my thoughts on this. Your recent half marathon time equates to a marathon time that is well under 3:20. Your training mileage is low so it makes it hard to use that half marathon time to justify something close to a 3:15 time. On the other hand you are relatively young so who knows how you will do in the later miles of the race. If you spent more time in your training and added more mileage and quality you could be capable of a sub 3:15 time. However we need to deal with your current training and fitness. What is your goal here? If it is really a BQ, then go for it. Seriously! A BQ -5:00 might get you there. Given the effect of the pandemic on races your chances might be good if your are in the -5:00 range. When I made my second attempt at BQ my goal was -10:00 which pretty much guarantees you will get in.

Back to Chicago as the race and if your goal is a BQ. There is a 3:25 pace group in corral D. I think you should go with that and adjust if you find it necessary. If you are capable for something close to a 3:15 based upon your half marathon time I don't think it is that unreasonable to handicap that by 10min based upon the weather forecast and a 48mpw average. If you crash and burn, it is unlikely that you would have made that BQ. Chicago is really flat so there are no hills at the end that are going to take the wind out of your sails. Although there is some wind in the current forecast so that might be a factor. I need to look go back and look at the wind direction to see how that might impact the race.

I will be running Chicago and I am disappointed by the weather forecast, but I am not surprised because Chicago has been notorious for having warm weather. For my true goal race I chose one that has been more consistently had better weather.

Whatever you decide and whatever happens, Good luck!

snowflakes wrote:

Thanks! I def have not been running 90-100 miles/week, my highest mileage was 48. So, steady training, but not high mileage. Appreciate your input! And yes, the weather variation is crazy right now!

YOU GOT THIS! LRC can be a cesspool of negativity, but with the big marathons recently I've seen more serious, positive training advice posts. I think if you go for 3:30 or 3:25 and are good by mile 20 you'll have tons in the tank to finish strong.

Hi all! I said I'd report back on how I did, so here I am reporting: I ran 3:31:35 (8:05 pace)! For my first marathon, and given the weather conditions (low 70s and 73,% humidity, I'm very happy with this!) Decided to pace myself instead of going with a pace group but my pace still stayed around 8:00/mile the first half then a little slower the second to get to 3:31. Not sure if that time will get me into Boston even though though I went under 3:35 (the qualifying time) given how competitive it is but very happy either way. Thanks all for your input!

Congrats on the BQ! There is a chance that you might get in since I think there may be less competition due the lack of marathons in after March 2020 At least you wont have to wait too long to find out since registration is in November. If you get accepted for Boston my advice is to train for it like you would for a goal race, but when it comes to the race back off on things and take it easy the first half so that you can really enjoy the second half. That way you'll be able to enjoy the Boston experience with the crowds and everything that make it the Boston Marathon. If you don't get accepted then pick a better marathon that is more consistent with favorable weather. One of the favorites among the BQ crowd is California International Marathon. It is a fair course and generally has weather that is favorable for a marathon but rolling terrain so you need to be used to hills. You have the capacity to get there with a good marathon with decent conditions.

Concerning your Chicago results. Great first marathon under tough conditions. Sounds like you had things pretty well dialed in for the day and you should be happy with that. Honestly, if you make it into Boston after first marathon under conditions like there were today you should give yourself an extra pat on the back. I ran Chicago today and it was tough so I know what you went through. I think we can be fortunate that it was mostly overcast.

Thanks! Good advice. And good job out there today too! Anyone who ran Chicago today should be proud we made it through the conditions and yes, the clouds definitely helped us!