Ingebrigtsen and Cheruiyot, both in top form from the Olympics (I can't believe they would've lost significant fitness since last week) in a race without qualifying rounds... seems possible.
Ingebrigtsen and Cheruiyot, both in top form from the Olympics (I can't believe they would've lost significant fitness since last week) in a race without qualifying rounds... seems possible.
Seems possible. His olympic time translates to what? 3:45?
Depends on how pissed off Timmy is. We will see if his Olympic results have caused him to become more cautious at the start.
I don't think a WR is possible but I do think entering the all-time top 10 is. Nobody has touched the top 15 for over 20 years...If the race goes 56/1:52-3 then we could see a time under 3:46.24 which is what is necessary.
it is just slightly weaker than the 1500 record, right? maybe high 344. don't see better than that
346 would be a pretty standard run for when these guys face off. that barrier to reach top 10 is a good over/under mark
It's possible, but maybe unlikely. What is the weather supposed to be like in Eugene? It's usually windy in the afternoon, but I'm not sure how August in Eugene compares to June in Eugene. Tim always seems to go out in 1:51, so 3:43 isn't farfetched, but it would be hard.
Total Running Production did a YouTube video of the chances based off his (Jakob's) splits in Tokyo.
He certainly is threat to the record. He ran pretty damn fast without a pacer or pacing lights.
Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.
A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.
No world record. But a great race- a fast race. I just watched the Rome WR race and it just seems like these two new kids are a similar match up. After watching El G . I can't imagine them getting past him or Ngeny for that matter.
arunaround wrote:
Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.
A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.
Partially this is due to the infrequency it is run (really just Oslo and Pre). Kejelcha ran 3:47.0 as well and he is not a natural miler. That being said breaking 3:46 is like breaking 3:29 except arguably harder as frequently the pacers cover 100 meters less than in a 1500. There are two guys on paper who can for sure, but there're no guarantees especially if it's windy or the pacers screw up.
It should be a good fast mile. WR? I really don't think so.
deeeeep wrote:
Ingebrigtsen and Cheruiyot, both in top form from the Olympics (I can't believe they would've lost significant fitness since last week) in a race without qualifying rounds... seems possible.
I very much doubt either is capable of the mile WR, which is slightly weaker than the 1500m.
Jakob's 3:28.3 , with almost perfect even pacing (not to mention being drafted to 1300m by Cheruiyot!) - 56.1, 55.9, 55.4, 40.9 (54.6) - in Tokyo, is worth 3:45.0. BUT, this was on the latest Mondo track which was claimed by the designer/manufacturers as being '1% to 2% faster than any other track'. Meaning it was more like a 3:30.3 on other tracks.
So the most relevant question is when was the current Eugene track installed? I can imagine it is still a Mondo one and almost certainly faster that tracks from the 80's and 90's.
I doubt they go faster than 3:46, which in itself is more like a 3:47 on old skool synthetic.
3:45-3:46 range at best.
I'd be surprised if Potato Tim starts if his calf issue is a real excuse. Surely he needs to rest that and then get ready for next season?
Luv2Run wrote:
Total Running Production did a YouTube video of the chances based off his (Jakob's) splits in Tokyo.
He certainly is threat to the record. He ran pretty damn fast without a pacer or pacing lights.
What!? He had the best pacer, in Cheruiyot, he could possibly have, offering him drafting to 1300m. When the Kenyan runs opening splits of 42.0, 55.8 and 55.7, there is no need for pacing lights. There are many other champions from the past who would have managed a 3:28 in an Olympic final with that kind of pacing; especially on a track that gave an extra 1% advantage in time.
You didn't think Warholm would come up that big, did you?
no
If I'm not mistaken, no one has run faster than 3:46.91 since Alan Webb ram that time in 2007. If they beat Webb's PR it would be a great performance. I say go for the record and if they blow up so be it.
arunaround wrote:
Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.
A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.
3:42.3 or something equates to 4:00.
3:25.4 or so would equate to 3:43.1, then.
3:28.XX is more like 3:46.