Many people here are underestimating the Ethiopian runners and overestimating the Ugandans.
Less than two months ago, Barega and Kejelcha ran 26:49 at the Ethiopian trials with a sub-53 last lap. One Letsrun commenter reported that the race was "was EXTREMELY uneven with hard surges being thrown in every few laps. This group goes 26:25-26:30ish in an even effort."
Another commenter wrote: "Yeah I watched the race and the surges were mad, one lap was 61 second then the next lap would be 68, it was like a fartlek session , very entertaining race😂 couldn't imagine them running so fast off such tactics. I agree a evenly paced run would have produced a 26:25 which is scary."
Yet another commenter pointed out that a sub-53 second last lap is probably unprecedented in a sub-27 race.
That sub-53 last lap at the Ethiopian trials was also much faster than Kiplimo's last lap -- 56.6 seconds -- when he beat Ingrebretson last year in Rome over 3000 meters. I don't think Kiplimo can match the Ethiopians' speed, and Olympic distance races almost always come down to a kick. The idea that Kiplimo is going to run 26:20 to take the sting out of the Ethiopians' kicks seems far-fetched to me.
As for Cheptegai, he hasn't looked good this year. I doubt he will medal.
I predict a winning time of around 26:40 with the three Ethiopians sweeping the medals:
1. Barega
2. Kejelcha
3. Aregawi
4. Kiplimo
5. Cheptegai