Our first distance preview for Tokyo has been published. Can one of the two Ugandan studs make history? It's hard to believe but Uganda has never won a distance medal on the track of any color at the Olympics.
The race is absolutely loaded and a total stud will leave with no medal.
As you note - the 10k is hard to predict due to lack of data. And despite the field missing out on Kandie and Kamworor it's still crazy stacked and anyones guess is as good. If the Ugandans team up and push the pace (and are at 100% fitness), yes, then a 1-2 seems likely. But if that doesn't happen I back the Ethiopians for the win. Both Kejelcha and Barega have lethal kicks - I'm more worried about their tactics. If Barega can keep calm, run the minimum distance and stay with the pack - and not do crazy surges mid-race like in his Ethiopian trials win, he's my pick for gold. Rhonex Kipruto has a engine as good as anyone with his insane 26:24 in old school racing flats, so if he can draft off the ugandans in a fast race he could be very dangerous. The 800, 1500, 5000 and 10 000m are all stacked as hell, can't wait to see how it all plays out.
Either Cheptegei or Kiplimo
So I'll predict a high pace but not high enough to get rid of the Ethiopians which results in:
1: Barega 26:35,40
2: Kiplimo 26:36,70
3: Kejelcha 26:36,90
I predict one or more US competitors lapped with 1200 to go.
And no, I have never run in an Olympic Games, thanks for asking.
cramberrys wrote:
So I'll predict a high pace but not high enough to get rid of the Ethiopians which results in:
1: Barega 26:35,40
2: Kiplimo 26:36,70
3: Klecker 26:36,90
Fixed
Woody!
If they run like they did at Doha, plus now Kiplimo, it going to be very fast. I see the K’s and U’s trading pacing duties. In Doha the E’s did not take part in that duty, but they covered every move. Cheptegei and Kipruto broke everyone except Kejelcha and Cheptegei out kicked him.
The pace was 64-66 at Doha, but those laps were surge infested. Cheptegei then closed 64,62 61,55.
Add Kiplimo in the mix I believe the the first 5k will be around 13:30 (13:33 at London and Doha) and the second 5k approaching 13:00.
Like I’ve stated on other thread the E’, K’s and U’s learned from Mo. Don’t let the pace lag and be in the lead at the start of the last lap. Let the runners behind sprint from 300 to 200 togo and save yourself for the last 100.
Tuntivate stated after his 27:17 that he knows the Olympic 10k will not be an evenly pace race like the race he had just run. When a runner know what’s coming in the race he going to race in we should listen.
My picks:
1. Cheptegei
2. Kiplimo
3. Kipruto
4. Kejelcha
when does this go live, Friday morning?
Forgot to add this: The E’s all have devastating kicks. But at Doha Cheptegei and Kipruto showed us how to take that kick away.
Kejelcha is a wicked kicker, but look at the last hundred in Doha. The kick lacking (per this board) Cheptegei pulls away.
What’s more likely, an American finishes top
8, or and American is lapped? Maybe both will happen.
There’s a strong possibility that these Olympics prove to be 20 year old Jacob Kiplimo’s coming out party.
Wise Old Man wrote:
What’s more likely, an American finishes top
8, or and American is lapped? Maybe both will happen.
Exactly.
Barega is in good form. I think this will go to the wire. Barega has improved his sustained kick to shift once more in the final 50. I agree that the Non kicker Kenyans will push this. Picks Barega kiplimo kejelcha.
Kejelcha is underrated. Betting on him
Wow.
1. Joshua Cheptegei, Uganda
12:35 WR, 26:11 WR, last year; 2019 10,000 WC gold, a few less remarkable performances this year
2. Jacob Kiplimo, Uganda
7:26, 57:37 #2 all time World Half win over Cheptegei last year, 26:33 closing in 13:06 this year, 20 years old and improving.
3. Yomif Kejelcha, Ethiopia
2019 10,000 WC silver to Cheptegei, 26:49 with 52 close for 2nd at Ethiopian champs this year.
4. Selemon Barega, Ethiopia
2019 5000 WC silver, 26:49 with 52 close to win Ethiopian champs this year.
5. Berihu Aregaw, Ethiopia
26:50 closing in 53 for 3rd at Ethiopian champs this year. 20 years old and improving.
6. Rodgers Kwemoi, Kenya
27:05 at 5500 feet for 2nd in the Kenyan trials this year, 4th WC 10,000 in 2019.
7. Rhonex Kipruto, Kenya
26:24 10k WR last year, 3rd 10,000 WC in 2019, dropped out of Kenyan 10,000 trials this year, 21 years old.
8. Mo Ahmed, Canada
12:47 5000 last year, 3rd WC 5000 in 2019, 6th in 10,000.
I wonder if the race opens near WR pace.
It will play between Kiplimo and Barega (if they are in their usual form) with an edge for Kiplimo.
While Cheptegei will rank 5th at best.
Jakob when he wins the 5k and 10k in both 2024 and 2028.
Whoever wins this Olympics 10k will be a flash in the pan.
Jakob would win the 5k and 10k in this Olympics if his daddy wasn’t so obsessed with the 1500. Jakob has the rare sub 3:30 wheels and amazing aerobic ability like Geb, Bekele, and Mo.
With Barega and Kejelcha in the same race there is also the added drama of whether Kejelcha will pull down Barega's shorts on the last lap. Somehow this possibility wasn't mentioned in the 10K race preview.
high school xc coach wrote:
when does this go live, Friday morning?
I’ve looked on: NBC , USA, NBCSN & the Olympic Channel.. I don’t see where the M-10,000m is being broadcast.. zip zero. Where is this showing up ..?!