birdbeard wrote:
It would have been an easy pick last year, but with Cheptegei just ever-so-slightly off his game this season, I can't ignore Kiplimo's solo 26:33 and Barega's 26:49 with that 53 second close.
Final prediction:
1. Selemon Barega, 26:43.3
2. Jacob Kiplimo, 26:44.1
3. Joshua Cheptegei, 26:44.3
4. Yomif Kejelcha, 26:44.4
5. Rogers Kwemoi, 26:46
6. Berihu Aregawi, 26:49
7. Mo Ahmed, 26:53
8. Rhonex Kipruto, 26:58
9. Weldon Langat, 27:03
10. Grant Fisher, 27:09
This is the best prediction I’ve seen so far. One of the Ethiopians and one of the Kenyans will likely blow up in the last mile but predicting is unclear. I also feel Mo Ahmed probably deserves to be a bit higher up on this list. He’s a proven commodity at 5k, and I expect a step up in performance at 10k over Doha. I expect him to finish near or just behind Kejelcha.
A warning to all others: discount Barega at your own peril. He ought to be the favorite based on recent form, with Kiplimo a close second, as birdbeard noted.