Perhaps I might add that you can say that maybe one of them has or had the greater potential but it is a kind of "so what" question to me. Wheating never did anything.
A more interesting comparison might be Ryun or Webb, who showed enormous potential at a young age but arguably never realised what many thought they were capable of. I, for one, never thought that Ryun would peak at 20 to not get any better over the next 5 years and to not get the Olympic gold that seemed to be his birthright in 66/67. And I would have expected Webb to have been an Olympic and world championship medalist at least.
I agree that Ryun and Webb are probably more relevant comparisons. In 2007 Webb (at age 24) crushed Lagat at the trials and then again in Paris, running 3:30. But it was Lagat who came through with the double gold in the WC and Webb faded. And then Webb’s career went into decline and he never made another national team.
I think the OP's point about Wheating is that it’s impossible to predict the trajectory of a young athlete’s career. It’s crazy to think that Webb and Willis are only a few months apart in age. Both showed remarkable talent at 18 but their careers could not have been more different. Centro never had the extraordinary raw talent of Ryun or Webb but, to his credit, he has done an exceptional job of managing his career, understanding his limitations and getting the most out of his talent.
i second this. cole only got there from his miracle shoes.
Well obviously Hocker is a special talent as was Wheating. The shoes are indeed a factor in comparing performances. Look today when McSweyn runs 3:48, Kejelcha 7:26 and others, the shoes are a factor and actually show that despite his kick Hocker ain’t ready for the big leagues yet.
Pretty typical of letsrun posters to write off Hocker already. Why can’t we be happy for the guy and the talent he brings to the sport?
You haven't understood the thread. He isn't being written off. It's little more than a caution, that early promise doesn't always translate into great things - as we saw with another similarly promising athlete in Wheating.
But of course if we go by your logic and assert that Centro was not yet a WC bronze medalist until the next year we must also assert that Centro is 5 years removed from being a gold medalist and it is not clear exactly the caliber of field that Hocker defeated. After all clearly Engles was off his game and so Hocker defeated a past his prime Centro and a good college runner in Nuguse. It was NOT as impressive as many think.
The splits speak volumes. A 12.2 last 100m in a 3:35 race. 38.67 final 300. Look at NCAA's with the 1:48 high final 800. Wheating did not put together splits like this. His best 1500m race was in Monaco, which showed a different skillset that is less applicable to championship success.
As for the field — Nuguse solo'ed a 3:34.6 1500, which is a historically impressive performance. His NCAA run was similarly so. Centro completely destroyed Jake Hayward who ran 3:33.99 a week later. He waited until what 250 to go and then stopped trying with 50 to go and still beat him by over a second? Engels had run 3:33.6. You're saying he "was off his game." There's not really any evidence for that. He beat Thompson and Wynne the same pretty much as he had in the 3:33.6 race. His tactics weren't great, but he ran fine.
You say Centro is "past his prime," but his splits are near-identical to his 2012 Trials ones which were right around his bronze and 4th-place performance, and then silver in 2013.
But of course if we go by your logic and assert that Centro was not yet a WC bronze medalist until the next year we must also assert that Centro is 5 years removed from being a gold medalist and it is not clear exactly the caliber of field that Hocker defeated. After all clearly Engles was off his game and so Hocker defeated a past his prime Centro and a good college runner in Nuguse. It was NOT as impressive as many think.
The splits speak volumes. A 12.2 last 100m in a 3:35 race. 38.67 final 300. Look at NCAA's with the 1:48 high final 800. Wheating did not put together splits like this. His best 1500m race was in Monaco, which showed a different skillset that is less applicable to championship success.
As for the field — Nuguse solo'ed a 3:34.6 1500, which is a historically impressive performance. His NCAA run was similarly so. Centro completely destroyed Jake Hayward who ran 3:33.99 a week later. He waited until what 250 to go and then stopped trying with 50 to go and still beat him by over a second? Engels had run 3:33.6. You're saying he "was off his game." There's not really any evidence for that. He beat Thompson and Wynne the same pretty much as he had in the 3:33.6 race. His tactics weren't great, but he ran fine.
You say Centro is "past his prime," but his splits are near-identical to his 2012 Trials ones which were right around his bronze and 4th-place performance, and then silver in 2013.
Centro too is benefiting from the new shoe technology and is barely matching some of his prior efforts, showing that he has lost a step. Centro in 2016 is not run down by Hocker like that. That 2021 Olympic Trials 1500m field was stacked with mediocrities and 2 up and coming collegians, along with a past his prime Centro.
Actually, Hocker does because of his showing against professional runners. Wheating was a phenomenal physical talent, probably the best ever -- he ran 3:30 after just five years of running, which is less time than it took Webb -- but his success was almost entirely because of his physical talent. In other words, he beat collegians because he was more talented. As a pro he didn't have much racing moxie nor did he have the most professional habits. Hocker will have a much better pro career than Wheating.
Pretty typical of letsrun posters to write off Hocker already. Why can’t we be happy for the guy and the talent he brings to the sport?
You haven't understood the thread. He isn't being written off. It's little more than a caution, that early promise doesn't always translate into great things - as we saw with another similarly promising athlete in Wheating.
Great things like a 3:53 high schooler going pro and developing into a 1:43/3:30/3:46/13:11/27:20 pro.
OR
Winning Gold but it’s a fluke because the time was slow and you were burritod 2 the gillz.
Take a step back... Pretty good for a singular nation to produce multiple elite runners in the same and across many events. Perhaps it’s our training development programme and access and exchange of elite training schema & regimen on this messageboard.
You haven't understood the thread. He isn't being written off. It's little more than a caution, that early promise doesn't always translate into great things - as we saw with another similarly promising athlete in Wheating.
Great things like a 3:53 high schooler going pro and developing into a 1:43/3:30/3:46/13:11/27:20 pro.
But of course those personal bests match no runner in history. I suppose Aouita is a reasonably close match with 1:43 3:29 3:4612:58 and 27:26.
Um...those were NCAA races. Hocker just won the Olympic Trials against a gold medalist in much faster than what you just presented here.
Hocker so far has more promise than Wheating did.
Ignorant post Flagpole. Wheaton won that 800m in 1:45, faster than Hocker has done. Hocker does NOT have more promise than what Wheaton showed before we had the benefit of hindsight. Plus Wheaton did run 1:44 and 3:30 later that year.
Perhaps I might add that you can say that maybe one of them has or had the greater potential but it is a kind of "so what" question to me. Wheating never did anything.
A more interesting comparison might be Ryun or Webb, who showed enormous potential at a young age but arguably never realised what many thought they were capable of. I, for one, never thought that Ryun would peak at 20 to not get any better over the next 5 years and to not get the Olympic gold that seemed to be his birthright in 66/67. And I would have expected Webb to have been an Olympic and world championship medalist at least.
I agree that Ryun and Webb are probably more relevant comparisons. In 2007 Webb (at age 24) crushed Lagat at the trials and then again in Paris, running 3:30. But it was Lagat who came through with the double gold in the WC and Webb faded. And then Webb’s career went into decline and he never made another national team.
I think the OP's point about Wheating is that it’s impossible to predict the trajectory of a young athlete’s career. It’s crazy to think that Webb and Willis are only a few months apart in age. Both showed remarkable talent at 18 but their careers could not have been more different. Centro never had the extraordinary raw talent of Ryun or Webb but, to his credit, he has done an exceptional job of managing his career, understanding his limitations and getting the most out of his talent.
I pinpointed the end of Webb's career as about 2 miles into the New York Road Runner's 8k road race back in early 2008.
Ignorant post Flagpole. Wheaton won that 800m in 1:45, faster than Hocker has done. Hocker does NOT have more promise than what Wheaton showed before we had the benefit of hindsight. Plus Wheaton did run 1:44 and 3:30 later that year.
Always great to see how good Wheating was at that point, but afraid to put himself in the pack and so content to sit last until the race was almost over, and all the strengths of Centro were already evident, the perfect tactical judgment and strong kick in a slow race. Don't forget that Wheating went on to run 1:44/3:30 that summer, but Centro then medaled the following year and numerous other times.
Always great to see how good Wheating was at that point, but afraid to put himself in the pack and so content to sit last until the race was almost over, and all the strengths of Centro were already evident, the perfect tactical judgment and strong kick in a slow race. Don't forget that Wheating went on to run 1:44/3:30 that summer, but Centro then medaled the following year and numerous other times.
I thought he executed really poor tactics, if you're going to sit at the back, run the rail. He probably ran 1550 meters and barely caught centro and acosta. Fun throwback of a race though.