Harambe wrote:
Health care providers are now required to report serious adverse events to VAERS that happen after administration of the COVID vaccine regardless of causaility.
Harambe, help me understand this because I can't get the math to add up. And when the math doesn't add up, I start questioning the talking points I hear and read.
Let's begin with reporting deaths under VAERS.
All deaths of vaccinated persons should be reported under VAERS, right? If so, here's the math (all numbers are approximate).
US age 85+ population: 6.5 million
SS actuarial table expected annual mortality at 85: 7.5%
Expected annual mortality in the age 85+ cohort: 487,500
From here on, we have to make some assumptions, but assuming 75% of the 85+ population was vaccinated by 30 April, we have over one full month of VAERS deaths being reported from this cohort alone. So....
One month (1/12) of 75% of 487,500 is 30,468 natural deaths in this cohort.
Next...
The 80-84 cohort is ~6.2 million. Applying the same math assumptions, we should see 29,000+ natural deaths in this cohort in one month.
If ALL deaths of vaccinated persons regardless of cause were reported in VAERS, we should be seeing a minimum of 59,000 deaths. If we add natural mortality for the 75-79 cohort, that's another 15,000 or so deaths.
Instead, VAERS is reporting only around 4,500 deaths.
CONCLUSION #1
If my math isn't wrong by an order of magnitude, then VAERS is not reporting all deaths.
CONCLUSION #2:
If the death data is wrong by an order of magnitude, the adverse events data is also suspect and could be vastly underreported.
Show me where I'm making a mistake here. I mean, yeah, I didn't double-check all the math so there might be a mistake or two, but nothing to change the conclusions.
Thoughts?