I believe most of y’all are underestimating him. he will be training for this during the summer in south Texas. it’s BRUTAL. Hobby joggers have finished this race so I don’t think it a stretch to believe someone like Nick whose whole life is dedicated to fitness pursuits will have much of a problem finishing. His work ethic is unmatchable by most ultra hobbyists.
big daddy wrote:
Nick Bare is a beast. Matt Carpenter's course record is literally on borrowed time now.
Oh, Absolutely!! It's a pretty soft record. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bare break 15 hours easily. If he can run a sub 3 'thon, surely sub 15 for a 100 where most of it is on the road is easily doable.
You are looking at the next (first?) big ultramarathon star.
Not only is he going to take Leadville, he's going to take Western States! And Badwater! And Hardrock! And Umstead! He's going to take UTMB! And Spartathlon! And Comrades! And Barkley And then we’re going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. Yaaaaaaaay!!!
(In case you didn't realize it, this entire post is sarcasm)
Who Is This wrote:
Unless he is getting to the mountains multiple times, there is no way he finishes. Not so much the trail running that is going to get him ...its going to be, like another poster said, the thin air that does him in.
I've seen people from sea level to about 1,500 feet try to take on Leadville. It doesn't end well. Usually DNF before the 50 mile mark.
Just going to the mountains will help him not much.
First of all, this is a 100 mile race. 100 miles is quite far. That's even difficult at sea level on an easy course. People forget that.
Leadville 100 used to be the only race where you could just sign up without having done any other ultra. Not idea if that is still the case. That was also the reason why Leadville had so many DNF's. And of course the organizers loved that, because Leadville always appears to be more difficult this way.
And then there is the altitude. Leadville is 10,000ft high and that is pretty much the lowest spot in the race. It will be interesting to see where Nick drops out.
tim roth wrote:
I believe most of y’all are underestimating him. he will be training for this during the summer in south Texas. it’s BRUTAL. Hobby joggers have finished this race so I don’t think it a stretch to believe someone like Nick whose whole life is dedicated to fitness pursuits will have much of a problem finishing. His work ethic is unmatchable by most ultra hobbyists.
What makes you say his work ethic is unmatchable by most ultra hobbyists? Seems like he puts in a moderate amount of work for slightly below average results. More than anything he just does extensive marketing.
I have no experiences running ultra marathons so my opinion isn't really valid but based on everything I know and have read about Leadville if his goal is simply to finish it should be doable. If he tries to compete my guess is he DNFs before halfway.
Not a Bare fan.....but barring injury he will finish. He knows how to endure the suck.
Alan
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
big daddy wrote:
Nick Bare is a beast. Matt Carpenter's course record is literally on borrowed time now.
Oh, Absolutely!! It's a pretty soft record. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bare break 15 hours easily. If he can run a sub 3 'thon, surely sub 15 for a 100 where most of it is on the road is easily doable.
You are looking at the next (first?) big ultramarathon star.
Not only is he going to take Leadville, he's going to take Western States! And Badwater! And Hardrock! And Umstead! He's going to take UTMB! And Spartathlon! And Comrades! And Barkley And then we’re going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. Yaaaaaaaay!!!
(In case you didn't realize it, this entire post is sarcasm)
Unironically it would be great to have Big Nick in the oval office. With him in charge all this Chinese aggression would not stand, man.
tim roth wrote:
I believe most of y’all are underestimating him. he will be training for this during the summer in south Texas. it’s BRUTAL. Hobby joggers have finished this race so I don’t think it a stretch to believe someone like Nick whose whole life is dedicated to fitness pursuits will have much of a problem finishing. His work ethic is unmatchable by most ultra hobbyists.
You could not be more wrong.
Most ultra hobbyists are very skilled in ultrarunning.
Nick is just a gym rat. All his impressive muscles will not help him one bit to finish Leadville 100 or any other 100 miler.
I don't even really know much about him. But I am with you on this. If his only goal is to finish, he will finish. Unless an injury occurs.
Nick has basically an unlimited budget to prepare for any endurance endeavors, as he’s earned it respectfully. He will truly do whatever it takes to achieve his goals.
I predict he will drop at 50 miles. He will show no respect for the distance and go out too fast. Also, this current trend that weight training can replace milage (and it's somehow better) will cloud his build up.
4 time Leadville finisher wrote:
Who Is This wrote:
Unless he is getting to the mountains multiple times, there is no way he finishes. Not so much the trail running that is going to get him ...its going to be, like another poster said, the thin air that does him in.
I've seen people from sea level to about 1,500 feet try to take on Leadville. It doesn't end well. Usually DNF before the 50 mile mark.
Just going to the mountains will help him not much.
First of all, this is a 100 mile race. 100 miles is quite far. That's even difficult at sea level on an easy course. People forget that.
Leadville 100 used to be the only race where you could just sign up without having done any other ultra. Not idea if that is still the case. That was also the reason why Leadville had so many DNF's. And of course the organizers loved that, because Leadville always appears to be more difficult this way.
And then there is the altitude. Leadville is 10,000ft high and that is pretty much the lowest spot in the race. It will be interesting to see where Nick drops out.
This is true, but imagine if 50% of the Chicago Marathon field DNFd every year. It’s not that it is the hardest mountain 100, it is what a mountain ultra looks like when you let any 800+ people enter that want to run. Mostly the course is just high, but hope pass is a pretty good filter. It is a one way route for a lot of people. In theory just finishing before the cutoff is easy, but somehow a lot of people never make it.
Did Nick finish an Ironman? That is more like finishing a 50 if you have a running background.
tim roth wrote:
Nick has basically an unlimited budget to prepare for any endurance endeavors, as he’s earned it respectfully. He will truly do whatever it takes to achieve his goals.
In order to finish a 100 miler you need to run 100 miles. Sounds simple but it is not that easy to achieve. Right now Nick has nothing what a novice 100 mile runner needs to have.
Not true at all. 90% of ultra runners walk the majority of the distance. That’s not including the rest periods at a station every 5 miles for someone to change your shoes for you and hand feed you a bean burrito.
tim roth wrote:
Not true at all. 90% of ultra runners walk the majority of the distance. That’s not including the rest periods at a station every 5 miles for someone to change your shoes for you and hand feed you a bean burrito.
The picture you are painting is not entirely wrong.
But it's not 90%, not in Leadville and not anywhere else.
Great. Another endurance athlete who will share every last detail on social media.
tim roth wrote:
Nick has basically an unlimited budget to prepare for any endurance endeavors, as he’s earned it respectfully. He will truly do whatever it takes to achieve his goals.
No one cares how much he wants it or how much he prepares. The question is can he keep moving, at altitude, for 30hours. Can his feet, chaffing, nutrition, body weight all hold up to 30hours of being pushed, at 10,000-12,600.'
If he finishes, he'll be fighting to get under the 30hr mark. I'd give 3:1 odds that he DNFs
If mental fortitude is the most important aspect to compete and ultra then I can guarantee a top 50% finish for Bare. Just watched some of his videos where he does long rucks with a weighted backpack on the highways in Texas in the heat. A guy with his athletic and business credentials don’t get to where they are without a strong mental game.
Easy top 50% finish for nick.
His own Moto is “Embrace the Suck”
81611 wrote:
[quote]tim roth wrote:I'd give 3:1 odds that he DNFs
I would be interested in the other side of this bet for a friendly wager assuming that he starts the race.
tim roth wrote:
If mental fortitude is the most important aspect to compete and ultra then I can guarantee a top 50% finish for Bare. Just watched some of his videos where he does long rucks with a weighted backpack on the highways in Texas in the heat. A guy with his athletic and business credentials don’t get to where they are without a strong mental game.
Easy top 50% finish for nick.
His own Moto is “Embrace the Suck”
The mental game for ultras is probably quite different than for working out in a gym.
I could not lift 100 lbs but I will beat this Nick guy in an ultra any day.
A 50% finish at Leadville would mean :
374 finishers under 30 hours
50% = 187th place = 28:38 in the 2019
Realistic IF he finishes but he won't.
Remember this whole thing is above 10,000ft and unless you have performed in that altitude you have no idea what to expect.
Nick can lift 500lbs all day long but that will get him not one inch closer to a Leadville 100 finish.
If I saw that right, he has not done one ultra race ever. There is almost zero chance that he can pull that off.
https://calendar.ultrarunning.com/event/leadville-trail/race/23575/resultsSo he quit his ironman goal?
Who wants to bet he shows up with nike carbon plated or similar shoes to do Leadville