The NCAA data is in - The super spike effect is real

Hot takes & clickbait wrote:

https://i.insider.com/5d30d30cb7f3bd0d2f65baba?width=1000&format=jpeg&auto=webp

This seems like a half-assed attempt to prove correlation equals causation, but as far as I can see rojo is only comparing 2019? I think many people do underestimate athletes getting a year off from racing. No doubt the shoes may help but also consider how the level of talent and training continues to improve each year. Another poster mentioned the HS class of 2017 and I think they make a great point. The shoes alone do not make runners go faster

Out of 36 runners I count three second years, 6 third years, 5 fourth years, 10 fifth years, 10 sixth years, 1 seventh year, 1 eighth year

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Isn't it possible the sprinters will add a lot more top times at their conference meets and in the championship season than the distance runners? Feels weird to not wait until the championships season where sprint times >>> distance times.

Yes. I have thought the same thing. And I'll republish.

SuperSpike_thereal1.... JASARI

Jasari is Swahili for FEARLESS

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Still Standing World Records... Check

NCAA Titles.... Check

Olympic Qualifiers.... Check

Olympic Medals..... Check

Still Standing World Records... Check

NCAA Titles.... Check

Olympic Qualifiers.... Check

Olympic Medals..... Check

According to your study, is it fair to call these “cheater spikes”?

rojo wrote:

To all of the haters who have been basically saying the same thing which is like the quote below - please answer the following:

duck sauce wrote:

i'd probably guess something along these lines if you asked me how much faster the #50 mark would be after ~9 months of no racing and with 5 full classes of guys with eligibility rather than 4

Why haven't the sprinters also improved in similar fashion?

Game. Set. Match. Rojo.

PS. I never tried to claim this was some scentifically valid study. I just literally thought, "Let's look at the 50th time. WOw, they are faster this year versus 2019 in the distance races but not the sprints (yes the 10k is messed up)."

I would guess that sprinters usually run their fastest at championship meets and distance runners run their fastest at random mid-season meets, and this will look very different in a month.

Carl Lewis has weighed in with his thoughts:

https://twitter.com/Carl_Lewis/status/1392145343341551616

This is what I said, and I don't really think Rojo has much of a rationale for doing his "study" now besides he is impatient to feed his confirmation bias. I do think the spikes work, by the way, but maybe wait until the season is over.

rojo wrote:

You should pay me for the privilege of reading my mediocre data analysis!

Fixed.

Stop taking the bait, Carl!

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Carl Lewis has weighed in with his thoughts:

https://twitter.com/Carl_Lewis/status/1392145343341551616

rojo wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Isn't it possible the sprinters will add a lot more top times at their conference meets and in the championship season than the distance runners? Feels weird to not wait until the championships season where sprint times >>> distance times.

Yes. I have thought the same thing. And I'll republish.

Sorry missed this. Sounds good, Rojo.

Brooks is allowing their athletes to compete in competitors shoes at the trials because their super shoe won't be ready in time.

That speaks volumes to how much the shoes help.

Maybe the spike advantage is real. Shoe companies have been trying for decades to make a shoe the leads to faster times. They seem to have done it and now many are upset. Technology moves sport forward. Anyone really care to see wooden racquets at Wimbledon this year?

There is no doubt in my mind that the recent world-records in the 5,000 and 10,000 and the two 3:50 indoor miles by the Oregon guys (putting them 7 and 8 on the world All-Time list) are a direct result of the super shoe. From 2017 - 2019 Cheptegei only improves his 5,000 pr by two seconds. Then, in one year, he improves 22 seconds to break an already unbreakable record. He goes from 205 on the All-Time list to #1. At best, Cheptegei is a 12:50 guy without the shoes. The two Oregon guys are 3:53-3:54 milers without the shoes. Cheptegei in a different brand of shoe doesn't run within 15 seconds of his wr. But I predict he never races again in anything but a super shoe.

It doesn't stop there. This year, 3 U.S. guys ran sub 27:15 in the 10,000 and 4 of the top 12 All-Time performances have been in the last year and a half. This has never happened in the history of U.S. distance running in the 10k. This isn't even taking into account the recent performances on the women's side.

This myth that the world/U.S. is getting more talented and hard-working is just that - a myth. Sorry, but evolution doesn't work this fast and runners were working just as hard 10, 15, 20, and 30 years ago. If anything, the amount of time spent running is getting less. There's only one way to settle this; have everyone switch from the super shoe until the Olympics. Not a single athlete will. Why? Because we all know that there is an huge advantage to the shoe. Everyone will make excuses as to why the times are faster this year but everyone knows why. They just don't want to admit it and they don't want to accept that their pr in 1500, or the 5, or the 10 was set while using a performance enhancer. Take away the shoe and performances drop.

The season is early and the shoe has only been available to the masses a short time. It's hard to point out anything with the data that's available at the moment. I predict that in the next 2 years we see American Records in the mile to the 10,000. The mile might be asking a bit much considering that they have to be, at least, a 3:49 miler without super shoes.

Also, to clear up any argument that the super shoe is "just a natural progression in technology like artificial tracks" Ryun and Clarke (who raced on both cinder and artificial tracks during their careers) set their mile, 5,000, and 10,000 records on cinder. They never ran as fast as they did on cinder despite running several races on artificial. Their world records weren't broken until many years after artificial was introduce and, when they were, they were broken by very small margins.

Hats off to the NC State women's team who have remained true to Adidas and have not transitioned over to the super shoe. I'm sure there are others but it's hard to know since it seems everyone is wearing Nike.

fxhjb2 wrote:

There's only one way to settle this; have everyone switch from the super shoe until the Olympics. Not a single athlete will. Why? Because we all know that there is an huge advantage to the shoe. Everyone will make excuses as to why the times are faster this year but everyone knows why. They just don't want to admit it and they don't want to accept that their pr in 1500, or the 5, or the 10 was set while using a performance enhancer. Take away the shoe and performances drop.

This is a nonsense circular argument because none of this happened in a vacuum. Taking away the shoe clearly wouldn't result in performances universally dropping to zero improvement, nor necessarily the statistical mean of improvement. We can't know or provide absolute proof, yet there is clear basis for understanding based on other factors at play in the same timeframe. The elephant in the room that super shoe lynch mobs (like rojo's rabble) routinely ignore is that dopers had months and months of unchecked blocks to cycle anything and everything they could get away with OOC. That will naturally skew perceived levels of improvement. Additionally, a "performance enhancer" is not an "advantage" if all competitors are given essentially equal access. Plenty of athletes sponsored by other brands have been granted permission to compete in Nikes, so while on an individual level it might not always fall in line with this trend it is indeed invalid reasoning.

rojo wrote:

I've crunched the numbers and compared the 2021 and 2019 NCAA times and the distance times are faster in 2021, while the sprint times are not, showing the super spike impact is real.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/05/the-ncaa-data-is-in-the-super-spike-effect-is-real-starting-in-the-1500/

(Sub required).

Rojo -- did you crunch the numbers for all other factors that could lead to faster times? Causation versus correlation. Obviously there is some sort of impact. It is more than a little misleading to post something like this like it is scientific in any way/shape/form.

How has the pandemic altered training/racing? Might people be running faster now who did cross instead of a full indoor season? Might people be running faster because they haven't been required to race as much? Might people be running faster when they actually get to race because they do not know when their next chance to go for a fast time will come?

Crunch the numbers on those things too.

fxhjb2 wrote:

It doesn't stop there. This year, 3 U.S. guys ran sub 27:15 in the 10,000 and 4 of the top 12 All-Time performances have been in the last year and a half. This has never happened in the history of U.S. distance running in the 10k. This isn't even taking into account the recent performances on the women's side.

This myth that the world/U.S. is getting more talented and hard-working is just that - a myth. Sorry, but evolution doesn't work this fast and runners were working just as hard 10, 15, 20, and 30 years ago..

You're missing some important details. The US has historically stunk at the 10,000 as far as PBs. Bob Kennedy, Matt Tegenkamp, Dathan Ritzenheim, even Paul Chelimo all ran superb 5,000 marks that stand up today. Yet their 10,000 PBs don't match up like Galen Rupp's or Chris Solinsky's.

It's not all the shoes. Training has improved and the Bowerman TC is the best domestic training group of the last 30 years. They are running more mileage and putting in more work with a better system and team training structure than Americans of the 90's and aughts. The spikes help, but you're cherrypicking a historically weak even for the US. Right now, the US is strong at 5K-10, really strong at 800, and weak at 1500. The spikes help in all 4 events.

Bob 12:58 Kennedy is still relevant in 2021.

Jasari Super Spike

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