Anything is possible wrote:
This is an interesting thread. Having a plan for when to retire is much different than having one for how to retire. I’m not sure many people really know what they’ll want to do in retirement, and it may not be as palatable as simply “evolving” and doing something else for work, part time.
Anyway, you seem to be one of the resident financial advisors on here, & we are roughly the same age, so I’m wondering how much you think is enough to retire on at say, age 56? I know that answer is different for everyone, but I’m assuming home paid off and kids out of college. What is the rough number to be able to retire, assuming a lifespan of 30 years +/- beyond the mid-50s?[/quote]
Flagpole, what is the answer?[/quote]
You will probably hate my answer, but here it is anyway...it depends.
I don't mean that to be flippant. There are just too many variables. I will list some.
1) Say you have a house that is paid for and you live in the SF Bay Area. You bought the house in 1987 for $300,000, and now it is worth $3 million. You could sell that house, buy a $300,000 house or condo in a ton of places in the US and retire easily at age 56 on the proceeds from just the sale of that house. Let's say you only cleared $2 million. Take 4% of that a year, and that's $80,000 per year. A person or a couple can EASILY live a nice retirement on that...if they have no debt, if the kids are out of the house, if they don't have big health issues/costs. I know a person who is in just this situation. He saved and has a 401k too, and he and his wife will also get SS.
2) Let's say you are 56 and have no debt and own your home. You can start taking as much as you want from your 401k at 59.5 with no penalty, and you can get at the contributions before that. Let's say you have $1 million in retirement money. Over the life of your million dollars accumulated, you contributed about $200,000 (give or take), so for 3.5 years you COULD take ~$57,000...that's more than you should take, so let's do 4% and just take $40,000. Can a person or could with NO debt and living in a paid for house live on $40,000 per year? Do note that this particular could can start taking Social Security early age age 62, and assuming they are the same age, that should be another $30,000-$40,000 per year depending on how much they earned...and if one spouse made nothing to little, he/she gets half again what their spouse gets, so if she gets $24,000 because she worked, he gets another $12,000 even though he was a house husband and never worked.
3) Where do you want to live? There are perfectly nice homes in perfectly nice and safe small towns all across American where housing is cheap as are the property taxes.
4) What do you want to do in retirement? If you plan to travel the world frequently, you'd better have more than the average.
5) Let's get to the very low end (and there are frugal stars who can make it happen on even less than what I am about to suggest) - If, at age 56, you had ZERO debt, no kids, a paid for house with property taxes that aren't insane, own a car that works and is paid for, and you live an extremely frugal life, you could get by on $500,000 in a retirement account. Let's say this person earned $90,000 in their final few years, and had a wife who made very little. He will get $24,708 a year at age 62, and his wife will get half again that for a total of $37,062 (used $90,000 for a current 56 year old and what he will get at age 62...SS quick calculator gave the results). So, they have that coming at age 62. If they feel they can live on that, he can spend all of his $500,000 before age 62 if he wants, but that's $83,000, and that's not necessary. If I were to advise in this case, I would suggest he takes 6% of that $500,000 until he's 62. That is $30,000. Assuming market is average, he will still have $500,000 and even a little more than that by age 62, but let's say it was a bad period and he has just $300,000 left. Ok. They take the $37,000 from Social Security and then take 4% a year beginning at age 62 from the $300,000. That's $12,000, so they now have $49,062 per year to live on. That's doable in most areas of the country.
So, I say bare minimum at age 56 to retire if you have zero debt, own a home and a car, no kids around, no costly health issues...$500,000. Again, superstar frugals can do it on less. A million dollars would be better, but honestly, that's not easy street for most. $2 million, and now we're talking, and if you want to have a really nice retirement, $3-$5 million. Beyond that is getting either into high income earners or people who invested early and often and had a good stretch of returns. If you can't make it on $3 million (that's $120,000 per year) with a paid for house, no debt and Social Security to the tune of $30,000 or more by age 62 and even more if you wait a bit, then you've got problems.