Could kipchoge move to ultra road/trail running someday and destroy all the world records?

First he has to go run a sub 4 mile to answer that other poster's question how easy it would be.

He should take a shot at 50k for the sub 2:30 barrier, for sure. But that is not a real ultramarathon. In fact the 42k marathon should be abolished because the 50k is much more interesting.

ultrarunningisntthatcompetitive wrote:

I don't see why not. If you have the speed to run what he does at altitude on dirt roads in Kenya, why wouldn't you have the leg strength to take on a mountain trail? Sure he'd make some training adjustments, but at the end of the day has ANYONE with that level of talent put it towards ultra running?

Sounds like you have never done a ultramarathon.

So many things can go wrong in a longer race than Marathon.

.Running 2+ hours is one thing, Running for 6+ for 100k or 12+ for 100 miles is a whole other world. Blisters, weather, nutrition just to name the 3 most important issues which carry way more weight in a longer race than just speed.

But for these top athletes the main reason is, that they are done when their Marathon career is over. They have nothing left in the tank and they are not going to run a 100 miler for a Belt Buckle.

The 100k World Record is held by Nao Kazami at 6:09:14. When he ran this in 2018 his personal best at the marathon was a mere 2:17:23, but he has since run 2:13:13 (Tokyo 2020).

Let's compare these to Eliud's 2:01:39 best.

2:01:39 / 2:13:13 = 7299s / 7993s = .9132

2:01:39 / 2:17:23 = 7299s / 8243s = .8855

If we assume that these ratios hold more or less constant as we extend from the marathon distance to 100k, what would Eliud's performance in the 100k be? (Of course, this is a big assumption. It depends on Kazami's marathon bests being reflective of his top fitness, and even beyond that one could argue either way, that the ratio should actually decrease as we elongate the distance, or that it should increase. Hard to say precisely, but we're just looking for a range of possibilities here).

We have .9132 * 6:09:14 = .9132 * 22,154s = 20,231s = 5:37:11

and .8855 * 6:09:14 = .8855 * 22,154s = 19,617s = 5:26:27

This predicts a plausible range of 5:26 to 5:37 for Eliud in the 100k. Now, of course, this kind of projection could be meaningless - if I compare two runners in the 1500m or 5000m and try to extrapolate up to the marathon, we could in fact see an inversion rather than a stability in their performance ratio, as runners have different aptitudes at different distances. I would tend to be more confident in extrapolating from 42k to 100k than in 1500 to 42k because of the similar physiological profiles of the races, but you could easily argue against this: the 100k certainly presents unique demands beyond just being a "longer marathon".

Still, I like to think that these numbers present a plausible ability range for Eliud. If you believe he has substantially superior endurance (from 42k to 100k) than Kazami, you could imagine him running as fast as 5:15 or so. If you believe he has substantially inferior endurance, perhaps he runs as slow as 5:45, 5:50. We are unfortunately flying blind here, due to the almost complete dearth of top tier marathon talent tackling the ultra events in their prime.

For what its worth, 5:15 is 5:04 pace, 5:26 is 5:15 pace, 5:37 is 5:25 pace, and 5:50 takes you to 5:37 pace. A human being running for 5 and a half hours at 5:20 pace does not seem possible, but its hard to overstate how much better 2:01:39 is than 2:13 or 2:17.

If we scale this performance differential of roughly 90% down to the mile distance, you are talking about the difference between say a 3:54 runner and a 4:20 miler. Meditate for a moment on the performance discrepancy in ceilings you would expect in the marathon for a 3:54 versus a 4:20 runner. That is what we are dealing with in the case of Kipchoge versus Kazami. Assuming both runners are distance runners (i.e., the 3:54 guy is not a 400/800m specialist or whatever), there is really no conceivable reality in which you would expect the 4:20 guy to beat the 3:54 guy over the marathon distance. The difference in ceilings is simply too vast.

It would be like Mike Trout playing Single A baseball.

Bad Wigins wrote:

First he has to go run a sub 4 mile to answer that other poster's question how easy it would be.

He should take a shot at 50k for the sub 2:30 barrier, for sure. But that is not a real ultramarathon. In fact the 42k marathon should be abolished because the 50k is much more interesting.

Agreed. The marathon should be 50K, or not even called the marathon any more. 42.195K is just like the foot, half cup, gallon, etc. Pointless.

Not every distance should be doubled or whatever, but should at least be an even number.

I think up to 100k he would do fine and break the records, at least on the roads. 100 miler? Over gnarly trails? I dunno.

Alan

Been a handful of threads on this.

I think sub 2:30 for a road 50km is his any year he fancies it in the next 6-7 years at least. His for the taking. There is no case against. It's like arguing that he wouldn't be fastest over 43.2km, or 44.2km, etc.; of course he is. It's like arguing Usain Bolt wouldn't have broken records for 108m - the additional distance is relatively insignificant.

But he won't - he wants to win all the marathon majors after 2021. Plus the marathon is his baby - his magnum opus. He's like one of the Japanese old masters who perfects a single art. I don't know 50km or 100km would ever be of interest for him (not the romance of it, the history, or the crowd interest), but anything at all running for several hours on roads >marathon he is best placed.

Mountain trails, I don't really think so. Dirt roads of Iten are not the same. He could do well, but he has so much biomechanical changes to make to what is necessary. Like Chris Froome doing the X-Games - the fitness and aerobic engine is second to none but it's the specific skills like ascent and descent etc. Rolling fire roads or gravel he'd be very competitive on the other hand, as he's a pretty handy XC runner.

Kipchoge has won world majors and an Olympic Gold Medal. The thought of him possibly running a race that ends on a HS track in Auburn, CA is absurd. It would be like the Rolling Stones having a concert at a sports bar.

They are different sports and how fast Kipchoge can run 100K is irrelevant.

Maybe, but maybe not. He will need good core, a stomach that tolerate nutritions while running and most of the best distance runners have worse than average lactat clearance do to genetics. That is the trade of for very high lactat. Either you can get more lactat and still run or better clearing. In the longest runs you need a good clearance.

Dubious Caesar wrote:

I think sub 2:30 for a road 50km is his any year he fancies it in the next 6-7 years at least. His for the taking. There is no case against.

Eliud might be able to break 2:30 for 50k but it's not obvious. The current fastest is 2:42:30 by CJ Albertson, a 2:11 marathoner. There are other guys with marathon bests similar to or faster than CJ who have raced 50k and not gone any faster.

There is 1 real sub 2 record untouched... Pikes peak ascent