Is cole hocker USAs best chance to medal at 2021 olympic 1500m?

Hocker 1

Hunter 2

Engels 3

Like Drew Hunter?

Also

1.Centro

2. Hocker

3.Engels

Is there another American named Hunter?

I figured you mistook Hunter for Charlie Hunter, another guy did that not too long ago

Looks like you thought Hunter was foreign because you didn't include him

Shelby Houlihan is definitely the most likely to get a 1500m medal for the US

abertwo wrote:

"You guys forget that Johnny gregorek ran a 3:49 mile but ended up last in the trials in 2019. Beating a bunch of 3:55 milers with a fast closing 200m is not equivalent to medaling at the olympics when you're racing people who have run 3:28 1500 or 1:43 800m. Centros gold in 2016 was maybe not a 'fluke', but after his gold the kenyans understand that they have to make it a fast race in order to win. Fact of the matter is that Centro is still the best hope for USA to medal. Centro has run 3:31 and 13 flat so he has the fitness and he also has the kick to compete with Lewandovski, Big Makh etc. Final will probably look like 2017 and 19 where one or two guys go out fast and pick up the gold, while 5 or 6 others compete for whats left."

-------------

You (and zxcvzcxv below) are living in the past when considering Centro´s possibilities at the US trials and at the Olympics.

Centro ran high 3:31 at DL Monaco 2018 and high 3:32 in the WC final in Doha 2019. It seems very unlikely that Centro after a year off in 2020 should even come close to his 2018 and 2019 SBs in 2021.

So it seems very unlikely that Centro will run in the Olympic 1500m final.

By the way : The same goes for Lewandowski and Makhloufi. Lew has not been close to his 3:31 PB from 2019 and was easily beaten by Jakob in the 1500m final at the European Indoors Champs recently. Even though Jakob worked as a rabbitt for Lew and the rest of the field most of the race.

Makhloufi: I doubt he will even compete at the Olympics.

Actually our best chance would be Brazier if he cared to run even though he won't. Still, you never know what will happen in 800 and he probably will always be entered in the 1500 just as a backup.

TheSummerSoldier wrote:

Actually our best chance would be Brazier if he cared to run even though he won't. Still, you never know what will happen in 800 and he probably will always be entered in the 1500 just as a backup.

^This

the answer is yes. That is all

College kids, especially young duded like Hocker, sometimes have problems timing their peaks (lack of experience) - depends on coaching experience and quality of coach/athlete relationship.

Centro is not on a roll like he was in 2016 (world indoor gold) - but he has experience. Can he align his body and mind for a title defense? Is the HUNGER there?

yeah i get that the chances are slim of any american men snagging a medal in the 1500, but hocker with that crazy speed might be able to hang in the 3:30-3:32 pack and kick for maybe a bronze? I dont know, right now he seems like our only hope. Teare doesnt seem to have the raw turnover and speed to medal. I could be wrong!!

objectiveobserver wrote:

Their 3:50 mile times equals 3:33 in the 1500m and that is still almost 5 seconds away from Timothy and Jakob and 4 seconds behind Jake Wightman. And there are also McSweyn and Hoare to take into consideration.

But it could be interesting to see Hocker and Teare in DL Monaco. In a well paced race they might go close to 3:30?

Jakob ran a 3:31 earlier this season, 3:33 with time to grow isn't worlds apart (Jakob said he was in base training and felt he could go faster, but so did Rupp when he ran 3:50 and he didn't get faster after another attempt or two).

Even if they're not in contention for gold, picking up a bronze is still on the table. Before this year I don't think anyone saw Hocker as a contender for the trials, but in just a few months he's really come around. It's still several months before the games, it's definitely possible he can drop a second or two by then. Same with Teare. They could have a Wheating type season where they're in 3:30 shape by summer, but they certainly look in a better position than he did prior to it. 3:30 shape with the ability to close a tactical race in 50.x definitely is within the realm of possibility to medal, even if they don't win.

Nope, he won't even win the OT.

No. The 1500m is stacked right now. Even on the women's side, Shelby Houlihan, who is much better than Hocker on the int'l level, will have trouble medalling.

For mid-d/distance events, America's best attempt to medal is in the 800 with Brazier for sure. Women's Steeple could also go well with Coburn. Very low chances in the 5k-10k- Marathon.

In 2011, Centro got bronze behind two dopers, one convicted now, in 3:36.08. According to letsrun, he closed in 1:49/51.5. I get him at 26-26.1 for his last 200m. 3:36 is about equivalent to 3:53. Hocker was slower the last 800/400 but slightly faster the last 200m. The difference was that Centro drafted behind others most of the way and then had people to chase the last lap. The pace was 55.30 from 700-1100m. Hocker's performance was indoors, so it may be that he'll be at Centro's medal level in the summer. He is not far off. On the other hand, his 800m currently is only 1:48, so he may need work to do a long close like Centro's (pr 1:44.62).

I like Cole. He's clearly in the best form right now out of 1500 type guys. He also just peaked for an indoor national championship.

I wouldn't bet against guys like Centro, Engels, Blankenship, Gregorek, etc. Experience matters. Going through rounds against pros is different from 1 round where they cut only a handful of runners.

Centro has 4 real medals. I'm not trying to discredit that even though he just ran 3:40. He also ran 13-flat not so long ago. Should just be fun to see if the younger guys can knock out the more established guys. I'm here for it.

zxcvzcxv wrote:

In 2011, Centro got bronze behind two dopers, one convicted now, in 3:36.08. According to letsrun, he closed in 1:49/51.5. I get him at 26-26.1 for his last 200m. 3:36 is about equivalent to 3:53. Hocker was slower the last 800/400 but slightly faster the last 200m. The difference was that Centro drafted behind others most of the way and then had people to chase the last lap. The pace was 55.30 from 700-1100m. Hocker's performance was indoors, so it may be that he'll be at Centro's medal level in the summer. He is not far off. On the other hand, his 800m currently is only 1:48, so he may need work to do a long close like Centro's (pr 1:44.62).

Centro's 800m PR was far from 1:44 in 2011. He had only run 1:47.77 at that point. I think Hocker can run 1:46. The first lap of his 1:48 was 29. Centro had also only run 3:34 in a DL race prior to 2011. People weren't expecting Cento to medal in 2011. I put Hocker in a similar position.

StravaStalker wrote:

Hocker couldn't hang with Jakob today due to Jakob's high lactate threshold. A 3:51 mile isn't comparable to 3:28 at all.

No, but his 3:53 mile with a 25 second close puts him at about a 3:49 high ...indoors. Which is easily worth 3:47 outdoors, which then converts to about a 3:30 1500, which Jakob has only surpassed on one occasion. Jakob and Cheruiyot are the favorites but they're far from untouchable, especially when we talk about Hocker. His kick is deadly.