500,000 Americans Have Died of COVID

You honestly don't understand that some of the 200k or so Covid deaths that took place in nursing homes would have occurred without Covid.

Surely you can understand and admit that much?

And once you grasp that, you see that 500k covid deaths cannot = 500k excess deaths.

Hence the excess deaths number is phony.

This is pre junior high math and logic

Bro you don’t know what excess means do you!! It means MORE than was expected. This is kinda funny. Yes 200k people have died in nursing homes from COVID. Yes some of them would have died anyway. Excess means MORE than would would have “died anyway” based on previous averages. I feel like people have been saying this to you since May! Maybe back to kindergarten for you :)

The Unkle wrote:

You honestly don't understand that some of the 200k or so Covid deaths that took place in nursing homes would have occurred without Covid.

Surely you can understand and admit that much?

And once you grasp that, you see that 500k covid deaths cannot = 500k excess deaths.

Hence the excess deaths number is phony.

This is pre junior high math and logic

Ok I think I'm starting to see where your confusion comes from. You are under the impression that COVID-19 deaths based on testing are equal to excess deaths. Thus it doesn't make sense to you that they can all truly be "excess" if some of these people would have died anyway! However, excess deaths have always been significantly more than COVID-19 deaths - since not all COVID-19 deaths are accurately tested/recorded. It's actually slightly non overlapping subsets of people, excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths! The two numbers are independent measurements of the burden of the pandemic. . This kinda throws a wrench into your idea that excess deaths are including people who would have died during the measurement period anyway. For example: CDC total excess deaths for 2020 (March-Dec): 419,112 CDC COVID-19 deaths for 2020: 344,849 Sources:https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/datahttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totalandratedeathssevendayrate

The Unkle wrote:

Wow.

What an amazing display of stupidity. And proud of it too!

The Unkle wrote:

Common Cents wrote:

How many people need to die before you admit you were wrong? We are now at 529K Americans dead because of people like you who don’t take this pandemic seriously.

40% of deaths have taken place in nursing homes where 63% of people don't last a year.

So that means about 212k of that 529k died in nursing homes.

You think that all those 212k people would have defied all odds and lived through the year had Covid not arrived?

Of course not. You're not stupid. Hence we can conclude with zero doubt that the 529k is an exaggerated number.

Now there you go again making sense. Prepare to be attacked by the covidiots.

No, he is conflating COVID-19 coded deaths with excess deaths. Which are independent measurements. I've tried to explain this but it's not really getting through the ego. I highly recommend looking at the underlying data for all these arguments (see previous pages) and not just being spoon-fed by your media provider of choice.

55YO wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

40% of deaths have taken place in nursing homes where 63% of people don't last a year.

So that means about 212k of that 529k died in nursing homes.

You think that all those 212k people would have defied all odds and lived through the year had Covid not arrived?

Of course not. You're not stupid. Hence we can conclude with zero doubt that the 529k is an exaggerated number.

Now there you go again making sense. Prepare to be attacked by the covidiots.

2600 bro wrote:

No, he is conflating COVID-19 coded deaths with excess deaths. Which are independent measurements. I've tried to explain this but it's not really getting through the ego.

I highly recommend looking at the underlying data for all these arguments (see previous pages) and not just being spoon-fed by your media provider of choice.

55YO wrote:

Now there you go again making sense. Prepare to be attacked by the covidiots.

I think the bigger issue is that he has a hard time accepting that there is a large number of people who died of Covid and yet had their death attributed to something else. That clearly is the case as under many circumstance the deceased would have never been tested.

On a side note, your nursing home paper came from Norway. Unkle's numbers on nursing home deaths are probably more accurate for the USA(they are dated). The issue described above means that the nursing home mortality issue doesn't make his general point about Covid deaths and excess deaths.

It's harder than I thought to find well sourced data on nursing homes in the US - probably too decentralized in the US(?) I think his underlying issue is he starts from the mindset of "the numbers are faked" and works backwards to convince himself. Your prior should be... reasonable.

2600 bro wrote:

I feel like people have been saying this to you since May!

Not since May, maybe, but certainly for quite a while.

...Because TU is a troll, and it would be nice if people stopped feeding him.

2600 bro wrote:

Bro you don’t know what excess means do you!!

It means MORE than was expected. This is kinda funny. Yes 200k people have died in nursing homes from COVID. Yes some of them would have died anyway. Excess means MORE than would would have “died anyway” based on previous averages.

I feel like people have been saying this to you since May!

Maybe back to kindergarten for you :)

The Unkle wrote:

You honestly don't understand that some of the 200k or so Covid deaths that took place in nursing homes would have occurred without Covid.

Surely you can understand and admit that much?

And once you grasp that, you see that 500k covid deaths cannot = 500k excess deaths.

Hence the excess deaths number is phony.

This is pre junior high math and logic

Yes, and the expectation bar was mysteriously dropped by 2000 per week in March of 2020. They lowered it right at the onset of the pandemic know full we'll the year prior had a low death count and that 2020 would likely have excess. The excess death number is arbitrarily selected and means absolutely nothing. It it just a bogus talking point used by poor health officials to shoot down problems with the claims being made around covid.

Ok even if that's true 2000/wk from March-December (40 weeks) is only 80,000 deaths? Also the average expected deaths/wk don't even shift that much year on year: From CDC expect death tables: 2017: 53,972/wk 2018: 54,602/wk 2019: 56,591/wk 2020: 54,865/wk Visually, it's hard to see how the slight reduction in expectations over summer 2020 could possibly explain away the excess deaths. https://imgur.com/a/9WtTUf7

I know, but it's nice for me to actually go through the data and continuously reassess my knowledge.

formerly present wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

I feel like people have been saying this to you since May!

Not since May, maybe, but certainly for quite a while.

...Because TU is a troll, and it would be nice if people stopped feeding him.

According to CDC, 2019, US deaths are 2,854,838 which is 869.7 per 100K population.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm And CDC says 2020 US deaths are 3,358,534, including 377,640 involving COVID.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm "Involving COVID" means that there was one of certain codes entered on the death certificate. There is no answer to the "with COVID" or "due to COVID" question here. That's a 4.4% increase among all-cause-except-COVID deaths year 2020 over year 2019. See macrotrends reference below. This alone is an unusual sharp increase. Deaths coded with COVID are 13.2% of the 2019 total. There was some population increase 2020 over 2019, probably about 1.2% "Excess deaths" is a complicated thing involving a 95% one-sided confidence interval on the expected number of deaths on a weekly basis.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard One would expect 95% confidence level on the sum of many weeks to be tighter than the sum of the 95% confidence thresholds. Adding up first, the high and low weeks offset each other. The model that produced that 95% confidence interval is opaque. The reference period may be dominated by a span of unusually low mortality. See https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate Note that this reference gives the 2019 US death rate as 888 per 100K, different from the CDC reported 869.7 per 100K. "Assisted living" and "skilled nursing care" are different categories of elder care. My recollection is that assisted living has a median survival time of 2 years and skilled nursing care a bit under 6 months. It can be hard to sort out what kind of facility is meant referring to deaths in nursing homes. The virulent spread of repiratory diseases in such places is well known. Sure it looks bad what happened in NY, PA, couple other states, but with the nature of the disease, ordinary community spread might be more to blame than any policy. Ok, go argue some more.

2600 bro wrote:

Ok even if that's true 2000/wk from March-December (40 weeks) is only 80,000 deaths?

Also the average expected deaths/wk don't even shift that much year on year:

From CDC expect death tables:

2017: 53,972/wk

2018: 54,602/wk

2019: 56,591/wk

2020: 54,865/wk

Visually, it's hard to see how the slight reduction in expectations over summer 2020 could possibly explain away the excess deaths.

https://imgur.com/a/9WtTUf7

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

Yes, and the expectation bar was mysteriously dropped by 2000 per week in March of 2020. They lowered it right at the onset of the pandemic know full we'll the year prior had a low death count and that 2020 would likely have excess. The excess death number is arbitrarily selected and means absolutely nothing. It it just a bogus talking point used by poor health officials to shoot down problems with the claims being made around covid.

One year since pandemic hit New York, new strain emerges in upper Manhattan,

Yahoo News

ALEXANDER NAZARYAN

March 4, 2021, 10:56 AM

And so it goes. On and on

55YO wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

40% of deaths have taken place in nursing homes where 63% of people don't last a year.

So that means about 212k of that 529k died in nursing homes.

You think that all those 212k people would have defied all odds and lived through the year had Covid not arrived?

Of course not. You're not stupid. Hence we can conclude with zero doubt that the 529k is an exaggerated number.

Now there you go again making sense. Prepare to be attacked by the covidiots.

This is a very simple, easily understood, and undeniable illustration of why the official Covid deaths and excess deaths are contradictory.

Is it possible they really can't follow this?

I can't believe anyone is that dumb.

They are desperate to not have to admit they have been had by the Covid hucksters

"As the arrival of the new variant shows, the pandemic is far from over. Some half dozen strains of the coronavirus are now spreading across the United States."

Be afraid.

Scary, scary.

Never ends.

Threads like this aren't based on any scientific or statistical doubt about the cost in lives of the pandemic; they are built on a claim that a vast medical conspiracy exists to deceive us. But only in respect of Covid - not anything else.

This view of the world was once confined within the walls of an asylum; today the internet and sites like this allow the deranged to walk amongst us, spouting their paranoid delusions without inhibition or constraint. It isn't "freedom" that is at risk today; it is rationality and sanity.

No. I doubt that you are walking amongst us. I have a feeling that Covid has frightened you.

[quote]Armstronglivs wrote:

Threads like this aren't based on any scientific or statistical doubt about the cost in lives of the pandemic; they are built on a claim that a vast medical conspiracy exists to deceive us. But only in respect of Covid - not anything else.

Just pointing out that the official Covid death numbers are wildly inconsistent with the official excess death numbers.

Amazing how effectively you guys ignore my common sense and simple math proof of that.