500,000 Americans Have Died of COVID

[quote]2600 bro wrote:

I suspect you don't really read anything:

If the pandemic or testing is fabricated/useless, why are excess deaths highly correlated with COVID-19 positive tests throughout time and space?

Asked and answered. Look above a few comments. Basically it is a made up, fake number.

No way 500k Covid deaths of old, sick people, 40% of them in nursing homes, causes excess deaths of 500k. I would say more like 50k, but even Covid believers have to admit excess deaths would be well below the full 500k.

Common sense and basic math puts the lies to the excess deaths number.

Unless you believe that the 200k who died with Covid in nursing homes all would have lived the entire year, whereas all other nursing home residents have a median life expectancy of 5 months and 63% of them don't last a year

Can you point me to data that refutes this?https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm And globally:https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker ~20% more people died in 2020/early 2021 than expected, do you disagree? The fact these deaths correlated highly with high numbers of COVID-19 positive tests is VERY strong evidence that COVID-19 is killing a lot of people.

Das Unkle wrote:

[quote]2600 bro wrote:

I suspect you don't really read anything:

If the pandemic or testing is fabricated/useless, why are excess deaths highly correlated with COVID-19 positive tests throughout time and space?

Asked and answered. Look above a few comments. Basically it is a made up, fake number.

No way 500k Covid deaths of old, sick people, 40% of them in nursing homes, causes excess deaths of 500k. I would say more like 50k, but even Covid believers have to admit excess deaths would be well below the full 500k.

Common sense and basic math puts the lies to the excess deaths number.

Unless you believe that the 200k who died with Covid in nursing homes all would have lived the entire year, whereas all other nursing home residents have a median life expectancy of 5 months and 63% of them don't last a year

nobody is saying there are 0 excess deaths

but when a single dead viral fragment is amplified at a pcr threshold of 40, of course there will be many 'cases' - you could pick up practically anything and say, you have x, y, z

once there's a 'case,' any death that occurred is almost always attributed to covid19

not to mention postmortem 'cases' -

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance-postmortem-specimens.html

again, the lockdowns and restrictions have contributed to 'covid deaths' in many ways already enumerated

I will refer to a fellow autodidact to explain further (from several months ago):

"It is clear and obvious that heart disease and cancer deaths are being called COVID fatalities. for the week 11/28/2020 through 12/4/2020 CBS cites the official death tally of 11,820 COVID deaths, 10,724 of heart disease, and 3,965 of cancer. Remember, this is the WORST week for Covid ever.

if you annualize these numbers it implies this. 614,640 will die of COVID, 557,648 of heart disease, and 206,180 for cancer. combined all three equate 1,378,468.

2018 is the most recent year with fully reviewed death tallies by category, so those will be the figures we use.

1,254,655 persons died in 2018 of cancer and heart disease. for 2020 on the normal 1.38% growth rate of two years this implies expected deaths in 2020 of heart disease and cancer of 1,289,523.

Using these numbers with Covid's WORST WEEK on record, excess deaths due to COVID in this country from the top two killers in one year would annualize to 88,945. Right now, CDC is claiming nearly 300k excess deaths. So if the worst week in COVIDs existence equates to under 100k excess deaths from the top 3 categories, this all but proves that the true majority of excess deaths that will hit 2020 will be because of SUICIDE

So when you see the number of 300k excess deaths this year, know that 250,000 of those deaths are likely OVERDOSE and SUICIDE."

1) The whole point of excess deaths is you don't need testing data at all. 2) I already broke down how those numbers you posted resulted from reporting lags. But I think see again how you are misleading people with bad numbers: Go here (again) and get the CDC data for 2020 and 2014-2019https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6https://healthdata.gov/dataset/weekly-counts-deaths-state-and-select-causes-2014-2019 Look at "malignant neoplasm" (column H) and "diseases of the heart" (column P). Average the weekly deaths for 2020 and 2014-19Malignant neoplasm: 2014-2019: 11,449/week 2020 10,165/weekDiseases of the heart: 2014-2019: 12,284/week 2020: 13,189/week I dont see a large shift in reporting for those "leading causes" from 2020 vs the previous 5 years. I'd like to know where you got your data. Furthermore the latest CDC models for suicide and drug overdose show small changes for 2020 - more overdoses, less suicides: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr011-508.pdf Rather than just quote articles you do not link to. I would like to see the raw data so I can confirm your calculations! I'll go through again

There are 500,000 excess deaths, nearly all preventable if people had chosen better diets and more exercise. Why does no body really care about preventing deaths. We could prevent 2 millions deaths if people lived healthier lives.

Preventative health is a big goal for health insurers and governments. We should be focusing spending even more. Getting people to be healthy is HARD. Evolution didn't prepare us well for modern society where food is plenty, caloric expenditure minimal, and lifespan ever increasing.

Ole Miss Rocks it wrote:

There are 500,000 excess deaths, nearly all preventable if people had chosen better diets and more exercise. Why does no body really care about preventing deaths. We could prevent 2 millions deaths if people lived healthier lives.

Oops, figgo brought unsourced copy-paste to a data fight.

The 2 of you make too much noise. If you were right you wouldn't need it.

figgo gave you the answer you said no one was giving you and what do you do? You dismiss it.

It's OK. Make all the noise you want :)

y63h wrote:

The 2 of you make too much noise. If you were right you wouldn't need it.

figgo gave you the answer you said no one was giving you and what do you do? You dismiss it.

It's OK. Make all the noise you want :)

The question really is how one reconciles the large excess death numbers with the postulate that Covid deaths were overwhelmingly people who were on death's doorstep anyway. "figgo" didn't reconcile those, he denied the excess death statistics.

I'm not heavily invested in trying to convince anyone who is invested in not being convinced, but he clearly didn't reconcile the two and I would suggest it isn't possible to do so.

Monkeys typing wrote:

[quote]y63h wrote:

The 2 of you make too much noise. If you were right you wouldn't need it.

figgo gave you the answer you said no one was giving you and what do you do? You dismiss it.

It's OK. Make all the noise you want :)

The question really is how one reconciles the large excess death numbers with the postulate that Covid deaths were overwhelmingly people who were on death's doorstep anyway. "figgo" didn't reconcile those, he denied the excess death statistics.

Of course you deny the excess death figures. 500k covid deaths -- many (most really) of folks on their way out before Covid came -- somehow causes 500k excess deaths.

Makes no sense

He didn't give me an answer. He gave me speculation with no sources. I would gladly look at more data! It's possible there is miscoding of deaths, some grand conspiracy, a huge rise in suicides, etc. I just haven't seen evidence for it. I see LOTS of evidence for COVID-19 killing ~500k excess people this year and COVID-19 testing predicting those deaths very well. Figgo didn't give me anything to dismiss, just unverifiable numbers. I gave him back the best data I could find to validate his claims Unkle just says "data is faked" and or gives similarly unsupported numbers.

y63h wrote:

The 2 of you make too much noise. If you were right you wouldn't need it.

figgo gave you the answer you said no one was giving you and what do you do? You dismiss it.

It's OK. Make all the noise you want :)

500k covid deaths -- many (most really) of folks on their way out before Covid came -- somehow causes 500k excess deaths.

40% of the deaths in nursing homes where 63% if the people die in the 1st year.

Makes no sense

Care to address that observation?

Ok I hate that I have to go find sources for your random numbers, just to fact check made up nonsense. I hope other people get SOME value from these exercises. Let's see:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6143238/ It claims yearly nursing home mortality is 31% not 63%. Do you know what excess death means? There were ~1.3 million people in nursing homes in 2019 Assuming 31% mortality rate that would mean 400k deaths in 2020. There were actually 582900 deaths in nursing homes in 2020. That's excess deaths. The baseline nursing home mortality is already factored into the equation. No one is claiming the 200k COVID nursing home deaths are all "excess." But there is no denying there was a ~50% increase in the number of elderly deaths over previous averages during the COVID peaks COVID-19 accounts for ~1/6th of all nursing home deaths this year. sources:https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htmhttps://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedRows=%7B%22wrapups%22:%7B%22united-states%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D You don't really have a coherent argument aside from "the data is faked." If you do, please present some data to support a hypothesis for the 500k excess deaths not being real.

The Unkle wrote:

The data is faked.

Can you explain to me how 200k Covid deaths in nursing homes causes 200k excess deaths when 63% of all people in nursing homes are dead within a year?

If your theory is that in the coming years (2022, 2023, 2024) deaths will be significantly LOWER because we cleared out people who "were on deaths door"... then say that more explicitly rather than just "makes no sense" and repeating fabricated numbers. Actuarial tables strongly suggest this theory is wrong though and I think you severely overestimate the number of terminally ill people in the US. But, I'd love to see the math!

The Unkle wrote:

500k covid deaths -- many (most really) of folks on their way out before Covid came -- somehow causes 500k excess deaths.

40% of the deaths in nursing homes where 63% if the people die in the 1st year.

Makes no sense

Care to address that observation?

The length of stay data were striking:

the median length of stay in a nursing home before death was 5 months

the average length of stay was longer at 14 months due to a small number of study participants who had very long lengths of stay

65% died within 1 year of nursing home admission

53% died within 6 months of nursing home admission

First off, 2600 has his data wrong.

But his logic is absent.

If a big number (let's stay away from data) of Covid deaths took place in nursing homes (and they did), and many of those folks would have died this past year in any event (and they would have), then 500k Covid deaths cannot lead to 500k excess deaths.

Quite simple. Both the logic and the math.

Hence we can conclude that the excess deaths number are phony.

QED.

Covid believer are immune to common sense.

“Let’s stay away from math”

Haha I’m done here.

Cute effort