N.C State, Women's XC, and distance updates

Guys seriously you don't think Katelyn Tuohy is running and going to kill it. How could she not be in better shape than last year when she had to sit in school all day. Now all she has to do is train and take a couple of online classes. Last year she could have ran top 20 NCAA

This kind of reminds me of that episode of The Office where Michael knew that Stanley would be a secret weapon when it came to playing basketball

I mean is there any doubt that the 65 year old obese African American guy in the office is going to be able to kill it on the bball Court

Sure Katelyn Tuohy hasn't actually suited up at all for NC State. But I think the coach knows that she'll be a secret weapon for the Championships and could possibly win it all.

If I remember correctly Stanley absolutely dominated that office basketball game probably the same will happen here

Yeah I think you're right. I think they're trying to lull the other teams into a false sense of confidence. They don't want to tip their hand. I'm pretty sure starliper likes to train Hills and that's why she doesn't run with team. I think she does the Jerry Rice workout. So there's always that to consider as well.

Yeah everyone might not be going all out in these preliminary races. Like last year Kelsey chmiel finished one spot ahead of Steelman. But now suddenly Steelman is like 40 seconds faster than her in a 5k and a minute faster than her in Cross Country. Who knows how much of an effort everyone is giving in these tune-up races. Like I don't really get Arkansas throwing down these 15:30 five k's, are they going to really be able to improve off those efforts or what. What's the motivation for going all out this early in the season? Are they trying to throw down Olympic trial qualifying times or just The Prestige of being top in the nation.

Definitely peaking too soon

All American is top 40. Dudek top 10, Ewert 20-40. (As she is not a big threat to score this year indoor I suspect she is running indoor events with little speedwork and tapering, with focus of training on a good 5k at sec indoor tk meet, and then 6k at xcnat.)

No secret I am Tuohy fanboy and would love to see both she and Starliper at that startline, am just pessimisstic, as I have not heard a peep toward that happening.

Positive is other than dealing with the summer injuries, there is nothing factual out there about any regression in ability, so like everyone else, I am eager to see them compete.

Do I need to dig out the threads from last fall? You will see many claiming that no team could compete with NC State. Freshmen are always an unknown. Just because Tuohy could have placed top 20 last year is no guarantee that she will be as good in college. Especially for women, some improve and some stay the same and some disappear.

Izzo is no longer eligible for xc, and only top 16 qualify for indoor nats track, hence make sure to get safe qualifying marks now for mile, 3k, 5k and dmr. Arkansas always puts priority on track and they have chance to win indoor. Top guns will focus on indoor, pack runners will focus on xc, and they will combine to show up at the line for xc nats.

Running craze wrote:

Do I need to dig out the threads from last fall? You will see many claiming that no team could compete with NC State. Freshmen are always an unknown. Just because Tuohy could have placed top 20 last year is no guarantee that she will be as good in college. Especially for women, some improve and some stay the same and some disappear.

Yeah but it's not really that freshman are so much an unknown. I mean really all athletes have to deal with the unknowns of injury and it's a little more likely for women Runners especially in the age range of 15 to 20

So yeah if someone's established as a college Runner they're a little more likely to be counted on but anyone could be dealing with a setback

Like I said many times freshmen have done quite well if you look at the results of the NCAA over the last 5 or 10 years or just historically it's not like they can't finish top 20

In fact most of the top women have finished top 20 over the last several years from Katie rainsberger to Brie Oakley to Kelsey chmiel. I think Camille was 22nd but close enough. Dudek's going to be top 20 this year

So as with most of these things I think the truth is somewhere in the middle yeah it's always a bit of a wild card and a little more so for freshman

I think it is a bit of a dream but who knows maybe Katelyn Tuohy will come out of nowhere and actually run and do pretty well.

Funny thing is if you look at Katelyn Tuohy Marlee starliper and Claire Walters

They all could have had multiple top 50 NCAA finishes over the last 4 years of their running. Tuohy would have been top 20 any of her last three years. Walters probably could have been top 50 her last three or four years and starliper top 40 or so her last two years. Certainly top 25 or 30 last year

So NC State's top three recruits so far haven't really been able to run even as well as they did in high school

I agree that a lot of other freshmen will do really well this year. Sure they're more of a wild card but the ones that are healthy can definitely score for their team

You just notice it more with freshman that's all

It's sort of a variation of the confirmation bias

It means when you're looking for something you're more likely to notice any discrepancy

So with freshmen they have a big name and you're expecting them to do well and when they do not it stands out

In reality there's probably a lot of girls who go from being top Runners to falling off the next year

But when it's a big-name recruit you just notice it more

With that said it is clear that upperclassmen generally are stronger runners. But every year there is certainly a lot of good upperclassmen who fall off and don't finish anywhere near as good as they did the previous year you just don't notice it because it's not as big of a story as a freshman sensation Who falls off

all right what are the odds that Katelyn Tuohy runs? And what are the odds that she finishes top 25?

I'd say it's about a one-in-three three that she runs. And if she does run I would say it means she's likely to go at least top 50 so probably another one in three that she can go top 25

I thought the jist of those threads was there would be a ton of NC State transfers with the big freshman class pushing people out of the top7, and they would be a dynasty for 2021-23, ie. Not this current year xc.

Am also well aware of the plight of female stars transitioning to college, but I just wait for some facts to be on record before jumping to conclusions.

If she can be top seven for a team I'm sure she'll run. Would you expect that she would at least get some competition experience before then? I don't know. Maybe the secret weapon theory is correct. Yeah probably like 1 and 3 to 1 and 5 that she runs and about the same for a top-25

Why is All American Top 40? In most sports All-American is first second and third team depending on how many people play at a time. So for Basketball top five are 1st team All-American next five would be second team. Football it would go by position with Top Eleven getting all American

Anyway why wouldn't top 7 B The first-team All-American and then next 7 second and then next seven third team

Or even just top 10 first-team All-American, next ten second team, and third 10, third-team All-American. Why top 40? Anyway I guess they like to have a lot of all Americans running around

At nxn the top 20 are All American. 11 through 20 just get their name called. The top 10 get up on stage. The winner gets a big trophy and the other nine gets small trophies.

MidFootStriker wrote:

If she can be top seven for a team I'm sure she'll run. Would you expect that she would at least get some competition experience before then? I don't know. Maybe the secret weapon theory is correct. Yeah probably like 1 and 3 to 1 and 5 that she runs and about the same for a top-25

I find it hard to believe her first college race will be a NCAA XC championship. When is the last time she had to run in a huge pack?

Well she ran a big pack with a lot of Runners at that club cross Nationals. But granted that was when she was running every week for cross-country and seemingly healthy

So yeah in some sense will be crazy to just be for that to be your first race of the season but I'm sure she's running in the pack with her teammates pretty much every day so

I'd have to think that if she can help the team win or do better she'll be running but I think we're all engaged in a bit of hopeful thinking. I mean chances are the coach would want to run her even if it was just for a temple run at one of these indoor meets. I mean why not run just to get experience if she was completely healthy

Honestly I feel like you guys aren't even reading my posts. I explained it all with the office Stanley analogy. You have to watch that episode of the office but it fits perfectly. Katelyn Tuohy is NC State's Stanley.