Official We Want the Tokyo Olympics Thread (How Can We Make Them Happen Safely?)

Easy, the answer has been the same all along: wear a mask, socially distance from those you don't live with, wash your hands frequently. If the spread had slowed significantly months ago, if the USA looked much more like NZ in COVID stats, then we could move ahead.

Would it not be wiser to wait until 2022 ? The pageantry of the Olympics with the spectacle of the opening and closing ceremonies is part of what makes the Olympics different from other sporting events. There is precedent for the Olympics being held 2 years apart when the Winter Games changed their schedule in the early 1990s.

Summer Olympics in Japan 2022, Winter Olympics in China, 2023, then the regular schedule can continue starting in 2024.

U Bozo wrote:

Easy, the answer has been the same all along: wear a mask, socially distance from those you don't live with, wash your hands frequently. If the spread had slowed significantly months ago, if the USA looked much more like NZ in COVID stats, then we could move ahead.

Yes if world-wide there was almost no COVID having the Olympics would be a no-brainer.

New Zealand I think brings up a good point in that it an island like Japan where it is easy to prevent entry and exit. Covid in Japan has been much less than in the World at large and the Japanese people will not want the Olympics to import a lot of COVID. But with lots of testing I think this is preventable. No one going to the Olympics wants to have covid as they won't be allowed to compete.

Having said that, the Australian Open is going on now and their Covid measures are what I think we don't want to emulate. I guess some athletes tested positive after they landed so now they are locking everyone on those airplanes in their rooms for 2 weeks.

I'd like to think there is a better way than that. At the least couldn't they be let out to exercise in a contained environment? But there needs to be procedures in place for everything. I'm operating under the assumption COVID will be around and we still want to have the Games. If that's the case then athletes will test positive.

No reason not to have the Olympics or any public events with full capacity crowds.

Seems there are 2 options for hosting:

Proceed like it's a normal olympics and covid explodea in Japan resulting in thousands ot tens of thousands more deaths - don't think this is a good option for the japanese people

Proceed with an athletes only/bubble type games and japan loses billions due to hosting costs, etc. not being recouped through thw extra tourism dollars. Alos not ideal for the host country but probably preferable to the mass casualty event option 1 would provide.

Or just don't host it at all and push to get the next open olympic year.

dont quarantine the healthy wrote:

No reason not to have the Olympics or any public events with full capacity crowds.

Japan will make the decision on crowds. I think we can have an Olympcis without full capacity crowds.

From what I understand they were having sporting events with crowds but have now locked down more so. But even in the US i think it is interesting. The Dallas Cowboys averaged over 27,000 fans a game. The BCS Semifinal was held in the same arena and they limited capacity to under 20,000. Many NFL teams had no fans for a lot of games but hen once they made the playoffs said "let's have fans." So this gets down to tradeoffs and what people are comfortable with. Personally I'd be very comfortable to going to an outdoor sporting event. Some wouldn't.

Also there is a huge money component as the IOC gets most of its money from TV while the local people get their money from ticket sales. So if crowds are limited to 50% capacity that affects a lot of the money the LOC would get. If it is an issue of money some of the TV money could presumably be shared.

dontdowhatletsrundid wrote:

Seems there are 2 options for hosting:

Proceed like it's a normal olympics and covid explodea in Japan resulting in thousands ot tens of thousands more deaths - don't think this is a good option for the japanese people

This is the false dichotomy I don't agree with. Japan has had 5,000 deaths from COVID TOTAL. I

If the concern is not importing COVID, you can test the athletes left and right, and limit interaction with the public. You could bar foreigners form attending as fans. Or you could have testing requirements for them.

Better to find ways to open Japan up to international business before sports entertainment events. Which, yes, have economic benefit. The slightly less simple answer has already been floated by the IOC and LOC: Games in empty venues, no spectators, only a televised audience. It's probably the best compromise to put in motion in time for the stated schedule.

This is an extremely difficult question of economics and politics. It is above everyone's credentials on these forums but that does not mean we can't hash out the shape of the conversation.

I think that the best point brought up thus far is: if the Olympics were held, the loss of revenue due to COVID is unfairly absorbed by the host country.

I think - because of exceptional circumstances, and because the Olympics is a celebration of all peoples - relevant parties need to be thinking altruistically about how to disperse the revenue-loss sucker punch so that Japan is assured and incentivized to step up to the historic task.

I agree with wejo that the Olympics can be held safely without the regular fanfare and be a success. Not only just a passable success too, but a 2021 Olympics has the potential to be distinctly transcendental.

Now is a time of global community-suppression. A 2021 Olympic Games not only honors the hardworking of this planet's athletes, but can stand in as a beacon for hope and togetherness that one could argue is much needed.

We have seen how isolated, "fanless" events can still be tear-jerkers (track meets, the marathon project, the recent carbon x WR attempt), but I do think it is going to take a degree of democratic socialism, of altruistic thinking, to overcome the economic behemoth that stands in japan's - and thus everyone's - way.

wejo wrote:

dontdowhatletsrundid wrote:

Seems there are 2 options for hosting:

Proceed like it's a normal olympics and covid explodea in Japan resulting in thousands ot tens of thousands more deaths - don't think this is a good option for the japanese people

This is the false dichotomy I don't agree with. Japan has had 5,000 deaths from COVID TOTAL.

Because they've taken stricter measures than we in the US have. Which led to the postponement in the first place. Tokyo is an massively huge, incredibly dense city that you cannot hermetically seal off from Games venues or the rest of the country. Even if eliminating all foreign spectators from the Games, how many athletes and staff would enter Japan in that two week period to stage the Games?

wejo wrote:

DanM wrote:

Would it not be wiser to wait until 2022 ? The pageantry of the Olympics with the spectacle of the opening and closing ceremonies is part of what makes the Olympics different from other sporting events. There is precedent for the Olympics being held 2 years apart when the Winter Games changed their schedule in the early 1990s.

Summer Olympics in Japan 2022, Winter Olympics in China, 2023, then the regular schedule can continue starting in 2024.

I meant to advise people to not post in this thread that they think the Games shouldn't be held. If you think that feel free to start another thread on that. I'm not out to squelch opposing views, but I want threads to be on topic.

As for delaying to 2022, I think it's better than cancelling but the organizers have said it's not an option.

So you say “feel free to start another thread on that,” and a thread is created on that and it is deleted? Apparently your subordinates do not heed you.

That thread is here:

The COVID 19 variant in South African has been confirmed to be an escape variant. The COVID 19 variant in Brazil is suspected to be an escape variant. We have seen what the UK variant has been able to do and there may even be a California variant that is more contagious. And who knows what other variants may spring up between now and this summer.

On top of that, first world countries are currently hogging vaccines. Third world countries are not getting much. The Oxford vaccine was supposed to be an open source vaccine so any country could make it without having to pay, but Bill Gates convinced them to license the vaccine to AstraZeneca.

In order to have a safe Olympic Games, you would have to make huge changes. No opening/closing ceremonies. No spectators. The games would have to be stretched out over a a much longer time period to limit the number of athletes in the Olympic Village housing at any one time.

Athletes would have to quarantine for 14 days if they were not vaccinated (assuming that the current crop of vaccines provide effective sterilizing immunity). Each even would need to have its own bubble. Athletes staying in the same facilities who would be transported to and from the housing site to the competition site each day. The housing site would have to be able to provide meals. Athletes will not be able to go out into the public. Outside of competition, athletes would have to stick with their team and cannot socialize with teams from other countries. Athletes will get quick tests every day with PCR tests every few days. Anyone testing positive will force a lockdown of their event until everyone who came into contact is cleared. N95 masks must be worn at all times when not competing. Athletes who break rules get DQ-ed, held in quarantine for 14 days and sent home.

Once an athlete is done with their competition, they will need to quarantine for 14 days before leaving Japan to make sure they are not carrying on the way home.

A plan like this would be able to limit transmission enough to make the risks reasonable. With the highly contagious variants out there, contamination at the games could spread like wildfire due to shared housing and the number of indoor events, locker rooms, training facilities, etc.

Even if the OG athletes were able to get through the games without a super spreader event, you would probably see a surge in cases as people get together with friends and family to watch the OGs. The virus' seasonality is not like the flu and the next variant may be as good at spreading in the summer as the winter.

But if the Olympic Games are going to stand for anything, they should stand for protecting the health and safety of our communities from the virus. The Olympic Games could actually lead by example on how to be safe during the pandemic. That might be worth some of the risks.

Unfortunately, I think it will be easier for organizers to just can it rather than to undertake what is necessary to make it safe. The sponsors will probably rather have no games at all than to have a lockdown/bubbled games that deliver a poor return on their investment. Sadly, the Olympic Games are not what they used to be. People can go a few years without watching 4'9" girls flip on balance beams or watching a Usain Bolt-less 100m/200m. We may be better off staying home and waiting for better times in 2024.

Personally I can think of one main reason why to hold the Olympics this year. Ist's the sociological side of high performance sports.

As an example check this to better understand what I want to say.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/sports-as-a-service-will-covid-19-change-how-we-watch-sports/

...Young people are also not as engaged with sports as previous generations...

By saying to postpone is no option, to cancel would mean going from 2016-2024 without Summer Games

thereby eroding the future fanbase. At the same rate you risk losing almost a generation of aspiring athletes.

We'll never be back were we were decades ago in terms of how sports are perceived and appreciated (whole families gathered in front of TV to watch Olympics...).

But we need to be aware that this pandemic might accelerate trends (which were here before) by orders of magnitude.

Holding the Games this year should be viewed as an investment for the future of the whole Olympics.

Make fear mongering punishable by law.

Then the Precious Roys of this world would not have the opportunity to instill fear into people.

Covid exists and it kills. It is not as bad as fear mongers paint it.

The solution, Weldon, would be to stop making covid part of the news. The professionals would deal with it like they do with deadly flu epidemics that occur once in a while while more attention could be given to protecting the vulnerable people who WANT to be protected.

The other solution I see is to have some budget Olympics, organized somewhere else if Japan doesn't want to do it.

You wouldn't need all the infrastructure if there is reduced audience and you could even combine a handful of countries, with different facilities, to organize different events.

yukmryeunw wrote:

Make fear mongering punishable by law.

Then the Precious Roys of this world would not have the opportunity to instill fear into people.

Covid exists and it kills. It is not as bad as fear mongers paint it.

The solution, Weldon, would be to stop making covid part of the news. The professionals would deal with it like they do with deadly flu epidemics that occur once in a while while more attention could be given to protecting the vulnerable people who WANT to be protected.

The other solution I see is to have some budget Olympics, organized somewhere else if Japan doesn't want to do it.

You wouldn't need all the infrastructure if there is reduced audience and you could even combine a handful of countries, with different facilities, to organize different events.

It is unfortunate that you want to suppress news about COVID-19. What else do you want big government to prohibit in terms of news? You want a dictatorship. This is obvious. No news about cancer, traffic deaths, airline accidents? No thanks.

yukmryeunw wrote:

Make fear mongering punishable by law.

Then the Precious Roys of this world would not have the opportunity to instill fear into people.

Covid exists and it kills. It is not as bad as fear mongers paint it.

The solution, Weldon, would be to stop making covid part of the news. The professionals would deal with it like they do with deadly flu epidemics that occur once in a while while more attention could be given to protecting the vulnerable people who WANT to be protected.

The other solution I see is to have some budget Olympics, organized somewhere else if Japan doesn't want to do it.

You wouldn't need all the infrastructure if there is reduced audience and you could even combine a handful of countries, with different facilities, to organize different events.

Lmao. You gonna delete this one, brojos?

wejo wrote:

dontdowhatletsrundid wrote:

Seems there are 2 options for hosting:

Proceed like it's a normal olympics and covid explodea in Japan resulting in thousands ot tens of thousands more deaths - don't think this is a good option for the japanese people

This is the false dichotomy I don't agree with. Japan has had 5,000 deaths from COVID TOTAL. I

If the concern is not importing COVID, you can test the athletes left and right, and limit interaction with the public. You could bar foreigners form attending as fans. Or you could have testing requirements for them.

If it were so easy to prevent COVID from spreading then why is it still spreading? You're trying to come up with all of these clever ideas, but if there were a clever idea that people could adhere to then why didn't we do that in the first place? The bottom line is that we're really bad at controlling it without societal lockdowns or strict social behavior.

Japanese people are meticulous about hygiene and they still have covid there. Bringing in thousands of foreigners would be a slap in the face to the hundred million people who have been so careful to try to prevent others from getting sick.

Here are some suggestions for how we could have the Olympics, there are really only two sides to the coin in my view:

1. Have it somewhere where people just don't give a sh1t about COVID. South Dakota maybe. No harm done if we have it there.

2. Here's the other side of the coin: Keep the Olympics in Japan, but only allow delegates from countries where the infection rate is low and the population has figured out how to behave responsibly. Sorry, your country has behaved like an infant for the past year, we revoke their privilege to be represented. Maybe let some athletes attend under a neutral banner like the Russians if those athletes have been training in a country with a sufficiently low infection rate.

yukmryeunw wrote:

Make fear mongering punishable by law.

Then the Precious Roys of this world would not have the opportunity to instill fear into people.

Covid exists and it kills. It is not as bad as fear mongers paint it.

The solution, Weldon, would be to stop making covid part of the news. The professionals would deal with it like they do with deadly flu epidemics that occur once in a while while more attention could be given to protecting the vulnerable people who WANT to be protected.

The other solution I see is to have some budget Olympics, organized somewhere else if Japan doesn't want to do it.

You wouldn't need all the infrastructure if there is reduced audience and you could even combine a handful of countries, with different facilities, to organize different events.

Maybe we could have a separate thread on holding them somewhere else but after talking to an Olympic insider I don't think they'd consider it. For example Walt Disney World has 30,000 hotel rooms just on property. They have tons of sports facilities. Florida is open for business. I think if you had the right attitude you could have it there. But then there is the fact Disney owns ABC not NBC, etc.

So much of this comes down to what you are willing to tolerate.

wejo wrote:

dontdowhatletsrundid wrote:

Seems there are 2 options for hosting:

Proceed like it's a normal olympics and covid explodea in Japan resulting in thousands ot tens of thousands more deaths - don't think this is a good option for the japanese people

This is the false dichotomy I don't agree with. Japan has had 5,000 deaths from COVID TOTAL. I

If the concern is not importing COVID, you can test the athletes left and right, and limit interaction with the public. You could bar foreigners form attending as fans. Or you could have testing requirements for them.

Are..... are you accusing viral infection of being a false dichotomy?