The COVID 19 variant in South African has been confirmed to be an escape variant. The COVID 19 variant in Brazil is suspected to be an escape variant. We have seen what the UK variant has been able to do and there may even be a California variant that is more contagious. And who knows what other variants may spring up between now and this summer.
On top of that, first world countries are currently hogging vaccines. Third world countries are not getting much. The Oxford vaccine was supposed to be an open source vaccine so any country could make it without having to pay, but Bill Gates convinced them to license the vaccine to AstraZeneca.
In order to have a safe Olympic Games, you would have to make huge changes. No opening/closing ceremonies. No spectators. The games would have to be stretched out over a a much longer time period to limit the number of athletes in the Olympic Village housing at any one time.
Athletes would have to quarantine for 14 days if they were not vaccinated (assuming that the current crop of vaccines provide effective sterilizing immunity). Each even would need to have its own bubble. Athletes staying in the same facilities who would be transported to and from the housing site to the competition site each day. The housing site would have to be able to provide meals. Athletes will not be able to go out into the public. Outside of competition, athletes would have to stick with their team and cannot socialize with teams from other countries. Athletes will get quick tests every day with PCR tests every few days. Anyone testing positive will force a lockdown of their event until everyone who came into contact is cleared. N95 masks must be worn at all times when not competing. Athletes who break rules get DQ-ed, held in quarantine for 14 days and sent home.
Once an athlete is done with their competition, they will need to quarantine for 14 days before leaving Japan to make sure they are not carrying on the way home.
A plan like this would be able to limit transmission enough to make the risks reasonable. With the highly contagious variants out there, contamination at the games could spread like wildfire due to shared housing and the number of indoor events, locker rooms, training facilities, etc.
Even if the OG athletes were able to get through the games without a super spreader event, you would probably see a surge in cases as people get together with friends and family to watch the OGs. The virus' seasonality is not like the flu and the next variant may be as good at spreading in the summer as the winter.
But if the Olympic Games are going to stand for anything, they should stand for protecting the health and safety of our communities from the virus. The Olympic Games could actually lead by example on how to be safe during the pandemic. That might be worth some of the risks.
Unfortunately, I think it will be easier for organizers to just can it rather than to undertake what is necessary to make it safe. The sponsors will probably rather have no games at all than to have a lockdown/bubbled games that deliver a poor return on their investment. Sadly, the Olympic Games are not what they used to be. People can go a few years without watching 4'9" girls flip on balance beams or watching a Usain Bolt-less 100m/200m. We may be better off staying home and waiting for better times in 2024.