Fauci is full of baloney

Harambe wrote:

joedirtt wrote:

They are not taking it more seriously than anywhere else. My town has had mask mandates since the summer, virtual learning for over a month, in person dining banned, and our case growth has been among the fastest in the nation. Like I said, compare New York City to basically everywhere else that didn't get hit hard initially. It's not even close, and it's not behavior.

Compliance in general is pretty poor in USA. NYC has been more strict than most but I digress....

Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are rising in NYC. How is that herd immunity?

Your estimate of 660k deaths is 0.2% of USA population roughly. A little less. NYC is already at 0.3% fatality rate and climbing.

Been over this. New York killed many by putting them on ventillators. If you do crappy care yes your FR goes up. Their official number also includes several thousand deaths that there was no evidence had anything to do with Covid that they added to the count because of the "Science".

Also deaths in NY aren't really going up that much, certainly not like the spring, clearly signs of a level of herd immunity. Herd immunity means a slowing of community spread through people being immune. It does not mean the virus goes away.

I'll let you smarter guys debate whether or not we have heard immunity here. Deaths haven't been going up in Queens by much. Statistically more than a month ago but nothing compared to the Spring. Not one administrator, Dr, or nurse I know is panicking like in April. We hear ambulances more often than the summer but nothing like the Spring and there aren't any tents with make shift morgues outside the hospitals like the Spring. Yes I know this is anecdotal. I read the crap from the "it's only the flu crowd" and "hospitals are empty" this Spring and now I'm reading the opposite from the fear mongers.

Mayor DeBlasio is going to shut down the city again. It was needed in the Spring but not now.

It would not be unusual for an epidemic to have the IFR decline a bit over time. It is true that we have learned how better to care for Covid patients with experience. I don’t have confidence in an upper bound, but I do think lower bound exceeds 600k.

coach wrote:

I'll let you smarter guys debate whether or not we have heard immunity here. Deaths haven't been going up in Queens by much. Statistically more than a month ago but nothing compared to the Spring. Not one administrator, Dr, or nurse I know is panicking like in April. We hear ambulances more often than the summer but nothing like the Spring and there aren't any tents with make shift morgues outside the hospitals like the Spring. Yes I know this is anecdotal. I read the crap from the "it's only the flu crowd" and "hospitals are empty" this Spring and now I'm reading the opposite from the fear mongers.

Mayor DeBlasio is going to shut down the city again. It was needed in the Spring but not now.

I believe it's not nearly as bad as the Spring. I also believe NYC isn't near herd immunity so deaths could easily get worse. A full shutdown is maybe an overreaction but in a place as devastated as NYC I get people want to be cautious. DeBlasio is a bit of a hack so... that doesn't help.

I do trust public health experts especially after their first hand experience in the 1st wave.

I'll admit I haven't kept close track of NYC's trajectory so I don't really have a good opinion besides: not at herd immunity.

From their peak of almost 1000 deaths per day reported in April, NY dropped to a low of 8/day and now are at 54, with flat trajectory. It's best to describe it as another "endemic" virus. This is the typical path of all respiratory viruses, from epidemic in first season to seasonal endemic indefinitely after.

YMMV wrote:

From their peak of almost 1000 deaths per day reported in April, NY dropped to a low of 8/day and now are at 54, with flat trajectory. It's best to describe it as another "endemic" virus. This is the typical path of all respiratory viruses, from epidemic in first season to seasonal endemic indefinitely after.

NYC trending upwards in deaths right in line with cases and hospitalizations. Not surprising.

I thought those deaths were faked? Surprising you now acknowledge they're real.

Progress.

Harambe wrote:

joedirtt wrote:

They are not taking it more seriously than anywhere else. My town has had mask mandates since the summer, virtual learning for over a month, in person dining banned, and our case growth has been among the fastest in the nation. Like I said, compare New York City to basically everywhere else that didn't get hit hard initially. It's not even close, and it's not behavior.

Compliance in general is pretty poor in USA. NYC has been more strict than most but I digress....

Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are rising in NYC. How is that herd immunity?

Your estimate of 660k deaths is 0.2% of USA population roughly. A little less. NYC is already at 0.3% fatality rate and climbing.

Cases rising, yes, but so what, we are testing a lot more right now. Yes, deaths are on the rise as well but they are only a fraction of the rates we saw in the spring, I doubt NY has even broached 5% of the April deaths while places in Europe have already observed a second wave that is nearly the same magnitude of death as observed in the spring. I would think this much reduced 2nd wave in NYS is an indication that they are almost there. Saying things are rising means nothing unless you put some values to it. Yes, people are still dying in NY, but that is mostly upstate where they were not hit as hard earlier. Again, generalized hand waving that does not actually prove what you are saying, but you hope people think it does.

I a still pretty sure you are vested in the vaccines somehow and you need to push this dogma all the way until everyone lines up to pay up. Yes, there are a lot of things to still be concerned about, and yes we should get a lot of elderly people vaccinated, and we should probably still be cautious of how we go about things, but overall your constant drum beat of demanding that people stay terrified really makes it hard to trust what you say without heaping on a pile of salt. Really everything you have posted in the last 8 months screams you should not be trusted because it seems like you have an agenda and something to gain by being slightly, not entirely, but slightly deceptive.

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

Cases rising, yes, but so what, we are testing a lot more right now. Yes, deaths are on the rise as well

Ok, all I need to see here

Harambe OUTED for his MRNA $200 calls.

[quote]2600 bro wrote:

What? climbing cases, hosp, and deaths presents no evidence for herd immunity. I fail to see how such certainty is unjustified.

High estimates for NY State total infected is ~35-40% (avg predicted 20%). Obviously that's on the path to herd immunity... any infection is on the path, but to make claims that NY is at herd immunity you have to make some pretty bold claims about the nature of the virus or our detection rates - and that's on you not Harambe.

[quote]Lead Foil Hat wrote:

It is not a bold claim in NY; not at all. You are just claiming it is a bold claim. You had a whole summer and fall of nothing in nys, now very mild bump during the onset of flu season. Many of these deaths are in the elderly homes upstate, and many could easily be flu deaths getting rolled in as covid for liability and financial reasons. Who knows, but what we do know is that things are fairly mild in nyc compared to the spring, suggesting herd immunity there. I do not believe it is bold to speculate this at this point.

Whoa! You're right!!!

IT'S A CONSPIRACY!!!

THEY are out to get US!!!

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

SAVE YOURSELVES!!!!!!!!

Harambe wrote:

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

Cases rising, yes, but so what, we are testing a lot more right now. Yes, deaths are on the rise as well

Ok, all I need to see here

That is because you thrive of generalizations and exaggeration of reality. Wouldn't the extent of the rise be important information in this context?

My favorite is the Sweet Lebanon bologna. It's really strong so I get it sliced thin.

I do like to fry up a big hunk of cheap bologna on occasion melting some cheese over it and slathering some mayo on top. Makes for a yummy snack.

Usually

YMMV wrote:

From their peak of almost 1000 deaths per day reported in April, NY dropped to a low of 8/day and now are at 54, with flat trajectory. It's best to describe it as another "endemic" virus. This is the typical path of all respiratory viruses, from epidemic in first season to seasonal endemic indefinitely after.

Sorry, accidental post above. Spanish flu started in the United States in March 1918 and had 4 waves going through 2020. The most damage was done in the second wave, but the third, in winter-spring 1819 exceeded the first

Note how this does not like the points I have made but cannot dispute them A purely emotional reaction devoid of facts and arguments. This is indicative of someone who has been programmed

This sounds about accurate, and we are all hoping it stays this way, minus DeBlasio shutting the city down again for no reason at the holiday.

The Unkle wrote:

Timothy Foyle wrote:

Whoa! You're right!!!

IT'S A CONSPIRACY!!!

THEY are out to get US!!!

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

SAVE YOURSELVES!!!!!!!!

Note how this does not like the points I have made but cannot dispute them A purely emotional reaction devoid of facts and arguments. This is indicative of someone who has been programmed

He is trying is trying to become a doctor, so he needs to practice mocking his patients. He is going to have tons of patients who love him for it.