When will Komen’s 3000 m outdoor record be broken?

Tron wrote:

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Kipruto lacks the speed for it. Hasn't done anything to suggest it. 7:30 would already be good for Rhonex.

At the moment, with specific work, the only one who can break it is Joshua.

maybe...I think he would have to improve his speed significantly. Maybe I'm wrong but seems like he is the kind of guy who can hold those 60s laps but doesn't have that much more speed. Not sure if i've ever seen him do a 55s lap

If you watched the Doha 10,000 you saw him do a 55s lap.

Kejelcha would have an outside shot.

birdbeard wrote:

If you watched the Doha 10,000 you saw him do a 55s lap.

you're right, my bad. ..for whatever reason thought that race was 56-57 last lap

Impala31 wrote:

None of them will break it.

12:35 does not convert to faster than 7:20 and Cheptegei lacks speed so I guess 7:22-23.

I don't seen how jakob could shave 7sec off his pb in the next few year. Probably 7:23-24 at best in the next years.

I don't know if kiplimo can still make huge progression but I doubt it. He looks like a fully developped athlete.

So Komen WR is safe for a few more years. All tried (El G, bekele Gebre) but only one got closer than 5sec gap lol.

Bullocks. It's an absolute monster of a record but Joshua has the potential to do it. 12:35 in hot, humid conditions, remember. He is likely capable of 12:32-33 in ideal weather. With even pacing @ 58.7 per lap he will be able to do it, maybe not now but eventually.

FWIW, Daniels Vdot converts his 5000m time to a 7:13 3000m.

Loppas wrote:

Kongen wrote:

You turds have been predicting that for a long time. Not gonna happen.

Heard about re-testing?

Macdaddy is as dirty as Jakob Ingebrigtsen. Now take your pick.

Lol. That's like saying OJ Simpson is as much a killer as Djokovic.

What's Kejelcha's deal right now? Injury?

I feel like he might have the best chance out of the current crop. He ran a 3:47 indoors, so you gotta figure he'd be 3:45-6 outdoors (3:29-8 1500) which would be the necessary speed. The 3k has been his main event for most years, he's got 2 indoor golds as well as some youth World/Oly golds, so it would be right in his wheelhouse. If everything went perfect for him the next couple years, I think it would be stupid for him not to go for the record.

He, no. Bouncy Boston track equals to 3:49 outdoors. No one setting pbs on that track was able to run faster outdoors.

Kejelcha has about the same shot at that WR as McSweyn

Mind = BLOWN wrote:

What's Kejelcha's deal right now? Injury?

I feel like he might have the best chance out of the current crop. He ran a 3:47 indoors, so you gotta figure he'd be 3:45-6 outdoors (3:29-8 1500) which would be the necessary speed. The 3k has been his main event for most years, he's got 2 indoor golds as well as some youth World/Oly golds, so it would be right in his wheelhouse. If everything went perfect for him the next couple years, I think it would be stupid for him not to go for the record.

Kejelcha's a good pick. When he ran 3:47.0 for the mile, I would say he was in 7:24-5 shape if not better.

Since the Diamond League is embracing the 3,000 we should see more races over the distance. Jakob is perfectly built for it, and. I think can drop a few seconds off his 7:27. Still, I'd tend to favor someone who is more of a 5k type to grind it out. Cheptegei is thus the top prospect to me. Then Kejelcha, Kiplimo, and Ingrebridsten. Barega in the mix as well.

hgggg wrote:

He, no. Bouncy Boston track equals to 3:49 outdoors. No one setting pbs on that track was able to run faster outdoors.

Kejelcha has about the same shot at that WR as McSweyn

Unless this season is the start of his decline, this is a crazy idea. Kejelcha ran 7:28.00 with a 2:23.96 last K (sub 55 last lap). He was at the front hammering the last 1300 or so. You can see the flags waving it was a really windy day. Not to mention he has far better 5-10K credentials than McSweyn. His form's been off this year, but his upside and resume is far greater than McSweyn.

dader wrote:

Lol. That's like saying OJ Simpson is as much a killer as Djokovic.

Sure. Lol away but your analogy is crap.

jacob has avoided the phenom crash,

at 19, with a 727 and 328,

then the natural progression is near WR in both events.

that's about all the analysis you need right there.

12:35.36 definitely is better than 7:20.67.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

hgggg wrote:

He, no. Bouncy Boston track equals to 3:49 outdoors. No one setting pbs on that track was able to run faster outdoors.

Kejelcha has about the same shot at that WR as McSweyn

Unless this season is the start of his decline, this is a crazy idea. Kejelcha ran 7:28.00 with a 2:23.96 last K (sub 55 last lap). He was at the front hammering the last 1300 or so. You can see the flags waving it was a really windy day. Not to mention he has far better 5-10K credentials than McSweyn. His form's been off this year, but his upside and resume is far greater than McSweyn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2rYWaMHdu8&ab_channel=RunnersAwesome

Sorry. Don't see Kejelcha going more than a couple seconds less than his current PB. I think Jakob has the best chance but I'm not sure he'll even break it. May get to 7:21. Jacob might go down to 7:23-4 since I don't think he'll get much faster. This is looking at Kenyan and Ugandan 17-18-19 yr olds.

Will have the Kwemoi effect.

Against McSweyn(who is a superior 1500 runner) Kejelcha has a better resume so far but absolutely not far more upside. Gotta be kidding me there. I will save this post for next year during which we'll see who drops their PBs more. Mc Sweyn is faster but Kejelcha has more endurance strength. It will always be close between them at the 3000.

Komen's record is more likely to be nullified for some reason than broken. Maybe the track was short.

Dirtrunner wrote:

Honestly, the athlete that had the best potential to break it was Mo Farah, as he came closest to matching Komen's 1500m/Mile to 5000m ability, but obviously he never really went for that distance minus that random indoor 2-mile world record he ran in 2014(better showing he might have had a chance). Jakob is the only guy today who seems somewhat comparable over that range, but even he was "only" 7:27.

This is not quite true. Mo had 3:28 and 12:53. ElG had 3:26 and 12:50 so even if we give Mo 12:48 he is still in no better position than ElG who could not do it either. I would say Lagat had a slightly better chance than Mo as Lagat had 3:26 and 12:53. One could just as easily give Lagat 12:48 if one is to give Mo 12:48 which in neither case makes sense as they both ran 12:53. A prime Lagat had a slightly better chance than Mo run to 7:20 but neither seemed quite capable.

I don't think it is as easy for him as doing specific work during 2-3months. (which he probably wont do anyway).

He has already worked on his speed a lot for the 5k. To make a significant improvment again, I think he would need to dedicate a full year to it, then I think sub 7:20 might be possible. But this will never happen.

Mo could definitely run much faster than 12:53, if it were what it took to win.

Tron wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

If you watched the Doha 10,000 you saw him do a 55s lap.

you're right, my bad. ..for whatever reason thought that race was 56-57 last lap

For some reason Cheptegei's speed is often underrated. In 2017 WC he closed in 55, running in lane 2, almost catching up with Mo, who is one of the best kickers ("one of" could arguably be omitted) in the world with a 3:28 1500. And he's got consistently better since then.

If he can devote several months of specific work, he will smash 7:20 easily.