Can I go from almost zero to Marathon PR in 23 weeks?

No.

maybe sub 3 but no PR.

You could probably work your way into shape to finish but it’s going to hurt and I wouldn’t expect you be able to break 3 hours.

I would increase your run frequency to 4 days a week, all easy runs x 4 weeks of 45-60 minutes

Weeks 5-8 increase to 5 days a week 45-60 minutes with one run 70 minutes

Weeks 9-12 increase Long run by 10 min a week

Week 13-16 add one quality day ( 20-30 min at moderate effort) ; continue to increase LR by 10 min a week. By 16 weeks your long run could be up to 2 1/2 hours

Weeks17-20- Add some Fast finishes to LR and get 2 of your LRs up to 3 hours

Week 21-23 taper

Lol, thanks for the honesty.

I was trying to keep the original post as short as possible, but I did get a stretch of about 4 weeks training where I ran a 3 mile tempo at 6:30 pace. That was in April and then I broke 2 ribs that week and was out for about 3 weeks and I'm back to square one. I realize 3 miles at slightly faster than my goal pace is a far cry from running a PR, but it did give me some hope. Also, I live in FL and the dew point was 77 on my training run today. I'm hopeful running in 60 degree weather in a couple months will give an extra boost. One last thing, even being "heavy" I'm only 160lbs at 6'00". At 145lbs, I always seemed to be able to run decently fast for a long time even though I never had short distance speed.

I believe I can break 3, but it seems pretty clear that a sub 2:55 is a real long shot.

You won't likely pr and you have only an outside shot at sub 3. I'd aim for something a little more modest. Do a half 4-5 weeks out from the marathon and if you can run sub 1:25, the sub 3 is probably possible.

Thanks for the advice.

I developed my own similar plan of 12 weeks running 5 days per week followed by 9 weeks of 6 days per week with a 2 week taper. Week 1 is 26 miles and peaks week 20 at 54 miles.

Why is everyone interested in learning about the absolute limits of how fast they can progress? Who cares if you CAN do it. Just go out and run for fun, and then when you do that for a while, we know you actually LIKE to run, and then you might as well train for a race. Otherwise, WHY are you running? You want to just get a good time? Someone will have run faster. Not many people will understand what you are talking about if you brag about it.

Run for you.

Very valid point. It’s more of a means to an end.

There is a local race 23 weeks out, and while I’ll be very happy just to finish, I know I will train harder with a difficult goal. Even if I don’t break 3, I will be happy with a progression towards 3 hours. Not because I can brag to my friends about the time, but because I feel much better when I’m in shape. If I’m a lean 150lbs and my cardio is solid but i can only muster a 3:05, so be it.

However, it would be nice to know that if I really push I can beat my former self, even if it takes a race well beyond this one. However, I’ll be just shy of 43 at this race, so the clock is ticking.

I’m going to post weekly updates, mainly to hold myself accountable.

In 23 weeks, no.

In one year and 23 weeks, maybe.

In two years and 23 weeks, more likely.

11 years of couch sitting is a long time. You might run under 3:15 but that has to be seen first as well. Run a HM 6 weeks before the actual race and that time will define which Marathon time you have to go for.

Chance of injury and not making the start are very high.

I’d say it depends on how much you were training for your PR and what your genetic potential is. If you train the same as you did for PR, don’t expect to beat it. If the last 12 weeks of your training are much higher quality than what you did for your PR and get you closer to your potential, you have a shot.

Stating the obvious, but you will need to be more fit and probably have run much more.

You can run a 6:30 mile. What you lack is the endurance to do that for 2 hours and 50 minutes. I would just run a lot. My vote is that you throw out the training plan and ramp up mileage as quickly as possible without injury.

All paces are "survival mode/don't get injured/this is easy".

Week 1 - 5 miles AM and PM = 70 miles

Week 2 - add a 2 miler at lunch = 84 miles

Week 3 - make lunch a 5 miler = 105 miles

Hold at 105 until most of it doesn't feel like you were in a car wreck.

Give yourself a day off and look for a high mileage marathon plan. Match the time you have before the race with the plan and train with specificity if you want. Personally I would just keep running a lot. If you don't hit the mileage above, maybe you get close, maybe it just takes longer to get there, but you could really load up on aerobic work now and brush up on speed near the end.

I did a progression of less than 40 mpw to 94 in a month for a mileage contest and I'm older than you. I didn't hit 105 and maybe you won't either but I still think shooting for high, sustained mileage would get you closer to your goal.

You should only think of one run at a time, not the endless miles you have planned. You have got to enjoy running. In a given day you will feel like you can barely move and almost shuffle through the run and in the same day you may cruise along at 5k pace - just run what you feel and don't get injured.

I didn’t say 11 years of couch sitting, just an 11 year old PR. I ran a couple 2:55s on tougher courses as recently as 2012. I ran my last marathon 5 years ago averaging just under 30 miles per week, missed a lot of workouts including some long runs and ran a painful 3:12. That was my most recent race of any distance.

I’m admittedly in worse shape and older now, but I know I can train much better than that disaster. Even better than I did for my PR.

Based on the responses, it seems I should probably forget the PR and focus on 2:59.

I can’t tell if you are joking or not. I’ve never run more than 4 weeks in a row above 50 miles. Partly the reason I think I can improve. 23 weeks may not be enough time.

However, I have been injured leading up to a race and I’m fairly certain if I even hit 70 miles, I will get injured. I also don’t have time for doubles between work and family. I can get a solid AM run 6 days a week no problem. I’ll consider ramping it up past week 10 if my body feels good. Thanks for the advice.

JS hasn't even shown up in this thread, that means no chance in hell.

Less of a joke. More, testing the waters to see if you are as crazy as I am. Your family will be pleased to know you are not.

My run up to 90+ was when my office made me work from home. With family and work completely contained and no commute time I ran doubles and triples every day in May. Maybe I get injured less than most. Other than starting nearly every run painfully sore, it was great. And the aerobic benefit got me back to running 15k times I had not seen in 10+ years with no speed work.

not my real handle wrote:

JS hasn't even shown up in this thread, that means no chance in hell.

I found this so funny! (and true)

My experience jives with shoulder devil's. I'm 50 and was completely out of shape last year when I decided to start running again. Volume and consistency with quality workouts allowed me to knock about 55 seconds a mile off my tempo pace starting in January with 6:50s and running 5:56's by end of June... Based on my previous training and performance experiences that would have put me from running in the neighbourhood of a 3:15 (assuming reasonable marathon endurance which I didn't have had at the outset) to gunning for a sub 2:50 (with endurance I had regained) in roughly your timeframe... But doubles and triples aren't everyone's cup of tea and I find I start burning out mentally. And not everyone can run volume without getting hurt. That said, weight loss and threshold runs will do wonders by themselves for most masters runners but I love chips.

Is it a virtual 'thon of some sort?