Warholm World Record Probability

Renato Canova wrote:

Times of 400m hs are not influnced by improvements in 400m flat. .

It's obvious that the two events are correlated heavily.

Renato Canova wrote:

In Monaco, for the first time he used 13 steps for all the distance,

Not true.

First race 13 steps: 02 AUG 2019 Norwegian Ch., Hamar 47.43

Yes. That was a dumb post. Hard for somebody to break the world record if they can only run 46 for 400. They probably hurdle faster if they drop their 400 to 44. Probably even better if they drop to 43.

I don't think possible running under 46", if the athlete is not able to use 12 strides till 8th hurdle.

During Olympics in Barcelona, I was technical commentator for HD television (broadcasted as experiment for Europe only). When there was the final, I immediately saw Kevin attacking hurdles with opposite legs (one with right leg, the next with left). There were two possibilities only : 14 strides, or 12 strides. Of course, I didn't think of the first possibility, and speaking in the TV (live) I said "Young is using 12 strides ! I never saw something like this before !", and, after the 6th hurdle, when he changed rhythm going to 13 strides, looking at my watch I said "This is a rhythm for a new WR under 47" !" (The WR was 47"02 from Edwin Moses).

Few minutes after the race, the Italian Journalist Franco Fava (who was National Record Holder of steeple, 5000m and 10000m with 27'42", and finalist in Marathon in Olympics in Montreal) came to me in the box of TV, asking some impression. I told him "Young was the first athlete in the World to use 12 strides for the first 6 hurdles", and, during the Press Conference of the winner, asked Young "when did you decide to use 12 strides only ?", but Kevin answered "12 strides ? No, I always use 13 strides".

Fava came back to me blaming me because of what I told him before the Press Conference :

"What did you tell me was wrong, I lost the face with the other journalists".

But the next day, looking at his race, Kevin Young realized that REALLY used 12 strides, never tried before (in training too), because the new track, and the extra-strength he had for the final, pushed him to run so fast that everything happened in natural way.

Without the same stimulus, and the same mental pressure (in this case able to add something to his normal energy), Young never was able to run under 47" again.

wisenheimer at work wrote:

i am sure warholm is ready for the world record. it is just a matter of time (good form on the day, good weather conditions).

i beg your pardon, but if something is currently hindering him, it is over-motivation that drives him to waste energy right before the start. i have seldom seen a runner doing so many explosive plyometrics in front of his starting block, screaming and beating the air with his fists. no wonder if he lacks the strength in the end.

He is Viking and preparing for battle. This will not change.

In a race of 400 meters flat, the progressive reduction of the length of the strides when lactate and fatigue are growing, does not need to be controlled under precise parameters, something fundamental with hurdles. The space between hurdles is 35 meters : considering the attack one and half meter before the hurdle, and the land abou one meter after the hurdle, we have 32 and half meters to run. This means that the average length of every stride is 2,13 m with 15 strides,

2,32 m with 14 strides, 2,50 m with 13 strides and 2,71 m with 12 strides.

Changing from 13 to 14 strides, an athlete has to use every stride 18 cm shorter, with a correct distribution starting from the first step of the new interval, in order not to lose too much speed with to short strides approaching the next hurdle.

All this has nothing to do with the PB in 400m, but with a continue perfectioning of the rhythm.

Renato Canova wrote:

What Warholm has, better than Benjamin and Samba, is the aggressiveness. Benjamin and Samba seem to have more "natural" talent, but are more fragile physically and mentally, and of sure are weaker than Karsten under the aerobic point of view.

.

Lol. How did you arrive at the conclusion that Benjamin & Samba have more natural talent?

I don't think I'm wearing your glasses so maybe if you can help me see...

Young has not used 12 strides for the first 6 hurdles, but 13 as he has said (with one exception where he used 12 strides).

Very easy to see, because he jumps always with the same foot (with the one exception) and therefore the number of strides must be uneven.

Also, it's so obvious that 400m and 400mH are correlated heavily that it's not worth discussing. Who will be the better hurdler (if teached some elementary technique): the 60, 55, 50 or the 45s 400m runner? For sure it's not given that the 44s athlete is the better hurdler than the 45s athlete. But to state there is no correlation is nonsense.

I think he has used 12 strides 2 times, not once as I have written.

Jag ar i stkhlm wrote:

wisenheimer at work wrote:

i am sure warholm is ready for the world record. it is just a matter of time (good form on the day, good weather conditions).

i beg your pardon, but if something is currently hindering him, it is over-motivation that drives him to waste energy right before the start. i have seldom seen a runner doing so many explosive plyometrics in front of his starting block, screaming and beating the air with his fists. no wonder if he lacks the strength in the end.

He is Viking and preparing for battle. This will not change.

If he does break the WR, there needs to be hefty security around because he may be berserk. Could happen anytime, no way to predict it.

letsdrum wrote:

I think he has used 12 strides 2 times, not once as I have written.

This changes everything.

But wouldn't more speed inbetween the hurdles slow you to cover the distance in 12 to 13 strides more comfortably without over striding , slower runners need more strides to cover the same distance. Young had a 400 pb of 45.11 and without that 400 speed he would not have broken the record.

If I well remember, he used 13 strides between the first and the second hurdle, during the turn, and after in the furlong he ran with 12 strides. The funny thing is that he was not conscious of that fact. If I well remember, Young had also an impact with the last hurdle...

Of course there is correlation between the value of 400m and tghe value of 400hs, but if you understand what I wrote, for specialists of top level, some improvement in their ability in 400m normally doesn't produce improvement in the final time of 400 hs.

How I already explained, hurdles are a "limiting factor" in both the events (110m and 400m), and any improvement in speed (of course, not from 50" to 47" in 400m, we are speaking about 3/10-5/10 of second) is not automatically connected with some improvement in the time in hurdles.

On the contrary, frequently the opposite happens, because the athlete, a little faster, is no more able to use a right rhythm between the hurdles, changing the length of his strides and varying the speed in the middle of every space.

The secret is working on "specific rhythm", not on speed.

Also a those with faster 400m typically hold on to speed and maintain stride length better. All of the best hurdles are near elite quarter milers, 400 flat speed is a important as rhythm.

Renato Canova wrote:

If I well remember, he used 13 strides between the first and the second hurdle, during the turn, and after in the furlong he ran with 12 strides. The funny thing is that he was not conscious of that fact. If I well remember, Young had also an impact with the last hurdle...

No, he used 13 strides all around with two exceptions.

Maybe he was not conscious of this because it's not true?

jjlk wrote:

Stockholm I'd put at 80%

Career-wise I'd put at 100%

Nothing in life is 100% (except for death and taxes).

Jag ar i stkhlm wrote:

wisenheimer at work wrote:

i am sure warholm is ready for the world record. it is just a matter of time (good form on the day, good weather conditions).

i beg your pardon, but if something is currently hindering him, it is over-motivation that drives him to waste energy right before the start. i have seldom seen a runner doing so many explosive plyometrics in front of his starting block, screaming and beating the air with his fists. no wonder if he lacks the strength in the end.

He is Viking and preparing for battle. This will not change.

If the 800 is best run on Pure Hate, then maybe the 400H is best on Pure Anger

Young was able running a part of the race in 12 strides not because had 45"11 in 400m, but because was 1.93 tall.

In 2007, Angelo Taylor ran 400m 8 times with his PB of 44"05, but in his 7 races with hurdles only ran 48"45 (4"40 of difference). Why ? Because his preparation was for 400m in order to be a member of the relay, and never had proper training about the rhythm for hs.

Javier Culson ran his PB (47"72) in 2010, when his PB in 400m was 46"84. Two years later improved till 45"99, but his PB in the hurdles didn't change (47"78).

When you are full of lactate in the last 50 meters in a competition of 400m, you can only slow down a little, progressively ; but you are in the same situation and have a hurdle in front of you and you are "out of rhythm", so have to slow down attacking the hurdle jumping high instead of "passing" in the right way, you lose suddenly too much speed, and this can cost something near one second. At that level, improving the PB in 400m without transfering that improvement to the hurdles using proper rhythm, can't give the athlete any advantage.