What do you think the chances are that Warholm breaks the world record in Stockhom? WR is 46.78 and Warholm has a PB of 46.92 and ran 47.10 at Monaco. How hard will it be for him to take off another 2-3 tenths?
What do you think the chances are that Warholm breaks the world record in Stockhom? WR is 46.78 and Warholm has a PB of 46.92 and ran 47.10 at Monaco. How hard will it be for him to take off another 2-3 tenths?
You must have just watched the world champs from 10 months ago
Low chance in Stockholm. Track is not as fast as Monaco and tends to be more windy as well.
Stockholm I'd put at 80%
Career-wise I'd put at 100%
jjlk wrote:
Stockholm I'd put at 80%
Career-wise I'd put at 100%
Stockholm I'd put at 8%
Career-wise I'd put at 60%
39xc wrote:
What do you think the chances are that Warholm breaks the world record in Stockhom? WR is 46.78 and Warholm has a PB of 46.92 and ran 47.10 at Monaco. How hard will it be for him to take off another 2-3 tenths?
O.1% Stockholm
70% career- I think the American Benjamin will beat him to it.
Jag ar i stkhlm wrote:
39xc wrote:
What do you think the chances are that Warholm breaks the world record in Stockhom? WR is 46.78 and Warholm has a PB of 46.92 and ran 47.10 at Monaco. How hard will it be for him to take off another 2-3 tenths?
O.1% Stockholm
Come on!
Within little over 1 year, he has done 7 of the top 47 performances in history.
47.33 (28); 47.12 (10); 47.43 (=45); 47.26 (22); 46.92 (2); 47.42 (=42); 47.10 (=8)
Just six days ago he run just 0.32 over the world record, in his first 400mH race of the year. He definitely has a serious shot at the record.
letsdrum wrote:
Jag ar i stkhlm wrote:
O.1% Stockholm
Come on!
Within little over 1 year, he has done 7 of the top 47 performances in history.
47.33 (28); 47.12 (10); 47.43 (=45); 47.26 (22); 46.92 (2); 47.42 (=42); 47.10 (=8)
Just six days ago he run just 0.32 over the world record, in his first 400mH race of the year. He definitely has a serious shot at the record.
Nej. In fact, I will go so far as to say that he won’t be within a half second from it. I know the track venue very well. I hope that I am wrong, however.
Stockholm 10%
Career 20%
Lol people asking how hard can it be to knock off a few tenths. How hard can it be to better a long-standing WR?
He is an eager racer, and deceptively fast. IDK squat about the 400mH, but he doesn’t seem to me to have the ability to get out quickly enough, easily enough. 0.2 is there to be had before the 2nd hurdle, maybe before the 1st.
Will he get it? I don’t think so, unless he ups his supps.
letsdrum wrote:
Jag ar i stkhlm wrote:
O.1% Stockholm
Come on!
Within little over 1 year, he has done 7 of the top 47 performances in history.
47.33 (28); 47.12 (10); 47.43 (=45); 47.26 (22); 46.92 (2); 47.42 (=42); 47.10 (=8)
Just six days ago he run just 0.32 over the world record, in his first 400mH race of the year. He definitely has a serious shot at the record.
If he was going to break the world record, he would have already done it.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
IDK squat about the 400mH, but he doesn’t seem to me to have the ability to get out quickly enough, easily enough.
You don't know, and yet you reply.
Warholm is by far the fastest starter and splits better than Young beyond 300m.
100: 11.1
200: 21.9
300: 33.8
The last 100 is where he loses vis-à-vis Young.
Manbearpig15 wrote:
letsdrum wrote:
Come on!
Within little over 1 year, he has done 7 of the top 47 performances in history.
47.33 (28); 47.12 (10); 47.43 (=45); 47.26 (22); 46.92 (2); 47.42 (=42); 47.10 (=8)
Just six days ago he run just 0.32 over the world record, in his first 400mH race of the year. He definitely has a serious shot at the record.
If he was going to break the world record, he would have already done it.
Fortunately you were not Michael Johnson's coach before Seville 1999.
I will take your word for it, although it’s difficult to believe that he gets to the 1st hurdle better than Benjamin.
I will say that I hope he gets it.?
Doesn’t he fall apart at the end of the last turn? I seem to remember him having a good final straight.
Anyway, the question is not how his race compares to Young’s, but where he can improve. IIRC he has been a strong first-half guy, I think maybe he should continue to develop that strength, rather than matching segments with Young.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
Doesn’t he fall apart at the end of the last turn? I seem to remember him having a good final straight.
Anyway, the question is not how his race compares to Young’s, but where he can improve. IIRC he has been a strong first-half guy, I think maybe he should continue to develop that strength, rather than matching segments with Young.
He seems to definitely struggle coming of the last turn. He's usually able to get back together in the final 50m but his finally straight is definitely the weakest part of his race.
If anyone's capable of the WR it's Warholm, though I think he's best chance would be in a close race with Samba and/or Benjamin pushing him down the final straight.
That's being said, Benjamin is quite the talent. So far Warholm has come out on top but Benjamin has demonstrated that he had 10.00 flat 100m speed, and if he can bring that into the 400m hurdles he should continue to be right their with Warholm.
Speaking of that 100m time trial, are there any updates on the USC group? Are we going to get to see Norman and Benjamin run their best events this year?
i am sure warholm is ready for the world record. it is just a matter of time (good form on the day, good weather conditions).
i beg your pardon, but if something is currently hindering him, it is over-motivation that drives him to waste energy right before the start. i have seldom seen a runner doing so many explosive plyometrics in front of his starting block, screaming and beating the air with his fists. no wonder if he lacks the strength in the end.
Facts and Logic wrote:
He seems to definitely struggle coming of the last turn. He's usually able to get back together in the final 50m but his finally straight is definitely the weakest part of his race.
He has struggled a lot with being uncomfortable with hurdling with both legs. Therefore he has worked a lot on taking either 13 or 15 steps between the last few hurdles. In some competitions you will have seen him take unnaturally long strides to only use 13 steps.
In Monaco, he both looked natural with only taking 13 steps, and he held back enough at the start to finish strong. So growing into this improved technique, I expect him to beat his PR and the WR, eventually.
Times of 400m hs are not influnced by improvements in 400m flat. The best specialists were able to stay inside 2 sec of difference : Edwin Moses in 1977 ran 45"60 and 47"45 (1"85 of difference), and few years later improved till 47"02 but probably never could run 400m under 45". Fabrizio Mori had official PB of 46"19 in 1996 when ran hs in 48"33 (2"04 difference), but the next year ran only 46"84 improving his PB on hs till 47"79. When ran his best in 2001 (47"54) was probably able to run a little bit faster than 46", but in any case well inside the difference of 2".
Warholm has an official PB in 400m of 44"87 in 2017, and from that year probably didn't improve his value on the distance, or improved only few hundreds. At that time, he ran hs in 48"22, with big technical confusion. After 6 hs with 13 steps, he had to move to 14 for to spaces, and 15 for the next two.
The next year, he ran 8 hs with 13 steps, attacking only one hurdle (the 9th) with the other leg, and ran 47"64 winning European Champs. He choose the same rhythm also last year, improving the technique with the other leg, going under 47".
In Monaco, for the first time he used 13 steps for all the distance, also if the last furlong was too much demanding because he had to force the length of every stride because the fatigue and the high level of lactate reduced the strength and it's difficult to maintain the same length used when you are still fresh.
What Warholm has, better than Benjamin and Samba, is the aggressiveness. Benjamin and Samba seem to have more "natural" talent, but are more fragile physically and mentally, and of sure are weaker than Karsten under the aerobic point of view.
Don't forget Warholm was the Youth WChampion of Octathlon in 2013, and won the Silver Medal in Decathlon in the European Junior Champs 2015 with 7754 points, with big limits in throwing, but good level in jumping (2.05 HJ and 7,66 LJ).
Athletes with a preparation in multiple events, when young, are more consistant, and more resistant in both training and competition.
I have no doubt Warholm in the future can better the WR running under 46"70, but agree that Stockholm is not the right track for achieving the record.
do you think any of them can improve their speed and technique enough to break 46?
Samba will break it first.