I'm seeing meets in Europe with thousands of fans sitting next to each other, and nobody wearing masks

The statistics say that CA would have to increase their total deaths by a factor of about 6 to equal NY deaths per population. And the hospitalization rates in CA are going down and based on the graph they should be back to pre-riot numbers in just a few weeks.

Are you under the impression that the NY lockdown was somehow a magical cure relative to the lockdowns in CA?

Cuomo didn't order a lockdown in NY until March 20. If he had acted earlier given the obvious early spread of the virus in NY, he may have saved the spread to other parts of the country. CA was in lockdown in March and the curve was flat until the riots began and then the Covid rates increased. Now that the riots have subsided, the covid hospitalizations are now subsiding.

What is it that you don't understand about these facts?

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

I've been saying it for the past few weeks. South Dakota is fully open and has been with almost no masks or social distancing. The city of deadwood is packed with tourists, they've had rodeos with fans. Mount Rushmore is a zoo, not just at the trump 4th of July. Despite people coming from a wide range of states there has not been mass breakouts. They did not catch the hysteria. They had a couple breakouts in food plants. People have gotten sick. But they decided not to tank the economy any more than neccessary for a virus with a similar fatality rate to the flu.

Deadwood is a sh*thole, they've got casinos and a Subway. How the hell is anyone going there as tourists.

I was living in Europe at the start of the pandemic. When the country I am in had positive cases less than 30 they shut down schools across the whole country. Later on the restrictions became heavier, basically only allowed out to shop, and that was limited as well. One interesting thing they did was rather than grocery stores limiting hours, they actually stayed open all night long, except for 2hrs around 2am for cleaning and restocking. That allowed for very strict restrictions on capacity. At one point, anyone under the age of 16 was not allowed out in public without an adult, because youth were continuing to congregate.

I went back to the US (California) for 4 months, where I would agree with some posters above, things were maybe only restricted to 50% at most. I can't tell you how many parents of my kid's friends said they were kind of "over" quarantine after a month and just started doing what they wanted.

I'm back in Europe now, and life is much more normal here, though there are still restrictions like wearing masks indoors. Otherwise, life is slowly edging towards normal, I even got to race recently. It has been very interesting moving between two countries during a pandemic. I don't recommend it, but it has given me a different perspective on country's responses to Covid-19.

Can also give you some perspective as a European.

Life is pretty normal now, with some exceptions :

- We wear masks indoors ( shopping malls, retail stores etc ). We do not have to wear them in restaurants / bars.

- Masks are mandatory on public transport.

When we went on lockdown ( March 13th), we had massive restrictions on what we could do ( couldn't go further than 2km from home), could only go to shop for food, all retail stores closed, bars, restaurants closed, all running events cancelled, all sports in general cancelled.

We put up with that for about 3 months, now everything is back to normal other than the above.

Yes, we still have some cases, but it's gone from 1,000+ per day to 50 per day. Less and less people in hospital, meaning our cases can get better care where needed. We have well and truly "flattened the curve".

Now, because of the early action, life is back to normal. Races are back, I go for out to eat for food a few times per week, yes it was a pain in the a$$ but completely worth it now.

Unfortunately, it seems the US isn't in the same boat here ( really sorry for you guys and gals). Hopefully something happens soon that helps you get it under control.

PS - I caught Covid while the lockdown was in place, most likely at a shop! Unlucky, eh? :)

TheKidsUnderstand5012 wrote:

Spain, UK, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal have about 162,000 deaths as of today. Their population is about 350,000. But good try.

There is no disputing that EU and UK screwed up their initial response by delaying lockdowns and allowing the virus to spread exponentially in March. But today, Spain, UK, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal are averaging less than 50 deaths a day and around 10k new cases a day (which is mostly resurgence in France and Spain). The US has been above 1,000 deaths a day for two weeks straight with 50-60k new cases every day.

EU and UK did what the scientist told them to do. Locked down hard until positive infection rates were below 5%, tested, traced and isolated and reopened very slowly with very widespread compliance with social distancing rules. The result is that they are able to get back to normal while in the US, we have full ICUs and are sending our kids to school while infection rates are 15-20%.

Take a look at this: Particle Size: The Key to it All

• Zhu, Na, et al. (2020). “A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019”

N Engl J Med 2020; 382:727-733.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2001017

§ Scientists were at a consensus that the diameter of the 2019-nCoV particles were

0.06 to 0.14 microns in size. Most N95 and N99 face masks can filter out 0.30

microns. Airborne coronavirus particle (<0.125 micron) will pass directly

through a N95 face mask.

So if virus goes through an N95 mask then how much easier they go through surgical masks or cloth masks...and this from WHO and CDC :

According to the World Health Organization's June 5, 2020, guidance on face mask use, there's no direct evidence that universal masking of healthy people is an effective intervention against respiratory illnesses

While masks do not prevent the spread of viral infections, the WHO still makes a case for universal mask-wearing, citing benefits such as reduced stigmatization of people caring for COVID-19 patients in nonclinical settings, making people feel like they're doing something to help, serving as a reminder to be compliant with other measures, and economic benefits for people who can sew homemade masks

Despite the fact that cloth masks are far less effective for blocking potentially infectious respiratory droplets, the WHO recommends cloth masks should be worn by infected persons in community settings

A policy review paper published in the CDC's journal Emerging Infectious Diseases found that masks did not protect against influenza in non-healthcare settings

Harms and risks of mask-wearing include health effects associated with poor air quality and toxic ingredients in the mask, self-contamination caused by manipulation of the mask by contaminated hands, general discomfort, facial skin lesions, irritant dermatitis or worsening acne, and a false sense of security that may reduce adherence to other preventive measures such as hand hygiene...

I think Americans are more prone to do/ believe what they are told by "officials ".

I

go away run wrote:

People are waking up. Everyone is going to to be exposed within a year no matter what they do so why cower in fear?

Because there will likely be vaccines before then.

TheKidsUnderstand5066 wrote:

Is Europe doing something different that we don't understand in America? Do you guys have a vaccine already?

Most of Europe tried to learn lessons from other countries which were affected earlier. I don't think Europe have many people like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Charlie Kirk, Herman Cain, Trump etc. telling people to ignore scientific advice.

Scientists have been unsuccessfully trying to develop vaccines for Corona viruses for 60 years. You are confident that they can now do it in the next year?

TheKidsUnderstand5012 wrote:

What are you talking about? Most of California was shutdown for the better part of 5 months and still is. Most businesses were closed, no in-dining restaurants, no school. The same was true for many states. What did Europe do differently?

Why does Europe have more Covid deaths than the US if they did it right? I would love to hear your explanation.

There are probably a lot of different factors.

Italy had a very old population (average age around 48, compared to low 40s in most of Europe and the US). Also, a lot of old people live with their families, so it spreads easier, and there are a lot more old people who get very sick (and have to be hospitalised) and die.

In Europe everyone can go to the hospital without worrying about insurance or bills. In the US there were already tens of millions without health insurance and this has increased significantly as many have lost their jobs. Isn't it likely that a lot of these people are dying at home rather than risk the bills they couldn't afford? They don't necessarily know they are dying of covid and neither do the authorities.

go away run wrote:

Scientists have been unsuccessfully trying to develop vaccines for Corona viruses for 60 years. You are confident that they can now do it in the next year?

I think there must be a lot more research groups with a lot more resources devoted to developed a vaccine that in the period 1960-2019. So I don't think that is a particularly good comparison.

go away run wrote:

Scientists have been unsuccessfully trying to develop vaccines for Corona viruses for 60 years. You are confident that they can now do it in the next year?

Vaccine efforts on SARS and MERS stopped almost as soon as they started because these viruses disappeared. Prior to that, there was very little effort on a coronavirus vaccine because it was not a problem.

There are good reasons to be optimistic about a vaccine. COVID 19 is a relatively stable virus. It goes through gene editing when it reproduces and does not mutate very frequently. HIV mutates very rapidly, making a traditional antibody vaccine all but impossible. Also, the fastest trial to FDA approval for a vaccine was the mumps. It took four years. A good portion of that was the process of finding a good candidate to start replicating for the trial process. The COVID 19 genome was sequenced in about a week and that sequence was made available worldwide. We did not have that back in the 1970s. So, technology has probably cut the time to find a vaccine in half. We cannot rush the time it takes to do a phase 3 trial. There is no way around testing the vaccine in large numbers of people to see if it works and if it is safe. But there are already 200 vaccine candidates in development with 3 very promising ones stating phase 3 trials.

The other big issue is how long will a successful vaccine last. No one knows right now. The typical corona virus that causes a cold produces immunity that lasts only about 4-5 months. But t-cell immunity in people who had SARS-COV-1 lasted years, much like measles or polio. So far, there is good evidence that the current vaccine candidates are producing t-cell immunity. But we just do not know how that will play out until the phase 3 trials are complete. So, there is no reason right now not to expect a vaccine. The potential road blocks have not emerged yet. They could still come up in the results of phase 3 trials, but we just have to wait and see.

You need to read up on N95 masks - check the technical aspects and you will understand a bit more!

TheKidsUnderstand5066 wrote:

NY State has three times the number of Covid deaths compared to California to date.

California has twice the population of NY State.

NY State has a cumulative death rate of 169 per 100,000 people to date. California has a cumulative death rate of 28 per 100,000 people to date.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

The hospitalization rate for California has been decreasing for the last two weeks.

https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/california-coronavirus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/https://www.kcra.com/article/gov-newsom-coronavirus-update-august-12/33586605

So what does CA have to do with closing D1 sports or this year?

NY state as well as NJ are terrible comparisons to any other place. Cuomo and his gang of thugs absolutely cooked the books. First they killed thousands of nursing home patients by sticking very sick COVID patients in nursing homes. He changed the way the state counts nursing home COVID deaths to try and cover this scandal. This is absolutely true, NY stopped counting it as a nursing home death unless the person died in the nursing home. Then he time traveled, twice, to add almost 10,000 people he decided should be COVID deaths to the counts despite there being no evidence they died of COVID. They also egregiously started counting people as COVID deaths despite COVID not being a factor because he had gone on a national news cirucit claiming how he needed 10's of thousands of ventilators and this was all Trumps fault. When the number of COVID hospitalizations did not hit anywhere near what they projected New York cooked the books to save face.

Their deaths per capita is a massive outlier worldwide. They are over 1500 per million. Sweden who has reached herd immunity isn't even at 600. Italy and Spain who had wide initial spread but whose deaths have just about stopped are around 600 per million. Depending on a couple of factors such as your countries demographic and healthcare this virus runs its course in the 600-900 death range per million. The lockdowns have only caused us to reach this number slower.

I can't stand Newsome and think he is an incompetent idiot. But Cuomo's corruption makes him look like a choir boy. So Cal is very close to the saturation level and you can see spread is tapering off. Unfortunately for Norcal they went lockdown hard before much spread occurred and they have much farther to go to hit herd immunity. LA County is at the 500 per million range, as our deaths start to fall precipitously over the next 2 months Garcetti will try to take credit for the victory. But that will be about as accurate as his we only have 102 ICU beds left claim from early July.

Doctor Zevv Zelenko wrote:

Where exactly are these meets?

The stands I saw in Monaco were not that crowded. People spread out.. and its outdoors, yes?

I could not really tell, from the little I saw about mask use.

Also, Monaco has, um, 146 total cases of COVID-19.

So please, what other meets had "thousands of fans"?

Everyone has had to wear a mask in Monaco, it was even controlled by the police during the meeting.

So I will say I agree with you on this one Roy. I think there is a lot of evidence that the immunity to this virus will last years like SARS as opposed to the cold. The biggest being there is no evidence of individuals getting this twice yet. It has been circulating for 8 months now, around 6 in the US. If immunity only lasted 4-5 months we would be seeing repeat infections, especially as evidence has shown antibodies disappear within weeks. There is also the evidence that 25-40% of the population does not get this due to T-cell protection inherent from infection with other Coronaviruses. This adds up to a very optimistic outlook that this virus will be something we can develop lasting immunity to.

Rave Dubin wrote:

TheKidsUnderstand5066 wrote:

Is Europe doing something different that we don't understand in America? Do you guys have a vaccine already?

Most of Europe tried to learn lessons from other countries which were affected earlier. I don't think Europe have many people like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Charlie Kirk, Herman Cain, Trump etc. telling people to ignore scientific advice.

Yeah... ignore the scientists! Ignore the thousands of doctors around the world prescribing a decades old medication that is successfully treating tens of thousands of patients, and ignore the scientists! Oh, wait... it's my liberal friends and CNN/MSNBC that is telling us that.

ravaging the ravish wrote:

Here you go, Doc...

https://www.zonerama.com/MiroslavHolub/Photo/6469594/235458666

My friend says "your American Democrats are lunatics."

Your friend is correct!

ravaging the ravish wrote:

Here you go, Doc...

https://www.zonerama.com/MiroslavHolub/Photo/6469594/235458666

My friend says "your American Democrats are lunatics."

Wrong picture