Impala31 wrote:
usnspecialist wrote:
He certainly has a great chance to get there by Paris 2024, but expecting it for tokyo 2021 is not fair to him.
A 18yo guy running 1:44 solo in the first race of the season can defenitely run 1:43 this year in a big race and 1:42 low next year which will put him in great position for a OG medal if he stays injury free and can handle the heats
I think you are drastically underestimating a few factors.
1) how big of a jump it is from 144.8 to "142 low" (which for me is 142.30 or faster). I'm not saying burgin cant get there eventually, but getting there in 12 months is setting some massive unrealistic expectations for the kid.
2) how he handles the heats at worlds. This is a kid that has never run rounds at a major senior championship, and the 800m rounds are notoriously brutal with the 24 to 8 cut. Last year it took sub 145 (a time that burgin has eked under one time) in order to make the final, and that was after having run a race the day before.
3) staying healthy is not a given. He already struggled at the end of last season with injuries and the 800m is deep enough right now that showing up even slightly injured/out of shape can be thr death knell.
I want nothing but the best for burgin, and if he wins a medal next year I will be the first to accept the "I told you so's", but he has some developing to do and I just don't think 12 months is enough time to get it done.