Coevett wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
How is it realistic to make up statistics?
They're more realistic than your statistics.
I took the fastest 3 Kenyans between 2015-2018 in each event from 400m to the marathon. That makes 21 runners. 6 of them are now banned or suspended.
Are you counting "whereabouts failures" when you say 50% are doped?
Coevett wrote:
and the likelihood is at least 50% of international Kenyan runners are doped.
Yes - I bett it's a lot more than that, given that the worldwide average is likely more 44%, and that Kenyans are apparently among the worst offenders.
Siele wasn’t anywhere near the Impossible Games. He’s a marathon runner.
Coevett wrote:Lol, he doesn't have the same coach as Kiprop but they were very close and Manàngoi considered him his mentor. Defended Kiprop after his bust and boasted of running sub 3:26 in Monaco. The guy is very flash on Instagram and it's clear he's financially motivated. Let's be realistic -1 in 5 top Kenyans have now been caught, and the likelihood is at least 50% of international Kenyan runners are doped. He had a bizarre season last year (the year after his mentor was busted) and so did George. My guess is the Kiprop bust probably spooked him. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that the top Kenyan who jumped out of the window to escape the testers was Manàngoi. Maybe that's how he hurt his ankle.
What evidence do you have of their closeness and defense of Kiprop?
Talking big about times does not make one a doper.
If he jumped out a window the facts will come out like in Kipsangs case. There’s a lot of baseless conjecture in your post.
Coevett wrote:
Now I've updated my Kenyan elite doping stats. To the mods. Instead of deleting this post, why don't you delete posts that claim yet another major Kenyan doping busts somehow proves that Kenya is the cleanest country of all, and that the Brits are all dirty?
I took a look at the Kenyan men's top lists for each flat track event from 400m to 10000m, as well as the half marathon and full marathon, for 2015-2018. I left out last year because the list would include a number of new faces who haven't been tested much.
So 2015-2018 gives a realistic look at the number of elite Kenyan doping busts, although you could probably at least double the eventual numbers given the rate of busts and that a majority are still active (and will get busted down the road). And then of course, you're free to speculate what percentage of dopers are/aren't getting caught. But the percentage who have already been caught is shocking enough, and totally contradicts the lie that El K puts forward that the reason for the huge number of Kenyan busts is that they 'have more elite runners than the rest of the world put together'.
Here is the list of elite busts, and their position in the Kenyan rankings for the four years 2015-2018.
400m
3. Bonface Ontuga MWERESA
800m
3. Alfred KIPKETER
10. Kipyegon Bett
14. Asbel Kiprop
1500m
1. Asbel Kiprop
3. Elijah Manangoi
5000m
6. Cyrus Ruto
1000m
18. Vincent Kipsegechi YATOR
half-marathon
1. Abraham Kiptum
Marathon
2. Wilson Kipsang
9.= Daniel Wanijuru
9.= Abraham Kiptum
So in the seven events, a top 6 athlete has been busted in 6/7 of them. A top three athlete has been busted in 5/7 of those events.
What other country even comes close to that crazy rate? And as stated above, it's very improbable that there will be no more busts from those years. And even then, it's just as improbable, that they will represent all the bad apples caught.
So 7 events x top 3 in each = 21 top 3 athletes for 2015-2018.
Six of those have been busted already. That's over a quarter.
3 of the top 10 Kenyan marathoners have been busted. 3 of the top 14 800m runners have been busted. 2 of the top 3 Kenyan 1500m runners have been busted.
Any other country with that confirmed doping rate would already have been suspended.
Anyone remember when Rekrunner insisted that it was only Kenyan women being busted and do that Kenyan men work harder than everyone else?
Subway Surfers wrote:
Anyone remember when Rekrunner insisted that it was only Kenyan women being busted and do that Kenyan men work harder than everyone else?
Probably no one. Did it happen?
Subway Surfers wrote:
Coevett wrote:
Now I've updated my Kenyan elite doping stats. To the mods. Instead of deleting this post, why don't you delete posts that claim yet another major Kenyan doping busts somehow proves that Kenya is the cleanest country of all, and that the Brits are all dirty?
I took a look at the Kenyan men's top lists for each flat track event from 400m to 10000m, as well as the half marathon and full marathon, for 2015-2018. I left out last year because the list would include a number of new faces who haven't been tested much.
So 2015-2018 gives a realistic look at the number of elite Kenyan doping busts, although you could probably at least double the eventual numbers given the rate of busts and that a majority are still active (and will get busted down the road). And then of course, you're free to speculate what percentage of dopers are/aren't getting caught. But the percentage who have already been caught is shocking enough, and totally contradicts the lie that El K puts forward that the reason for the huge number of Kenyan busts is that they 'have more elite runners than the rest of the world put together'.
Here is the list of elite busts, and their position in the Kenyan rankings for the four years 2015-2018.
400m
3. Bonface Ontuga MWERESA
800m
3. Alfred KIPKETER
10. Kipyegon Bett
14. Asbel Kiprop
1500m
1. Asbel Kiprop
3. Elijah Manangoi
5000m
6. Cyrus Ruto
1000m
18. Vincent Kipsegechi YATOR
half-marathon
1. Abraham Kiptum
Marathon
2. Wilson Kipsang
9.= Daniel Wanijuru
9.= Abraham Kiptum
So in the seven events, a top 6 athlete has been busted in 6/7 of them. A top three athlete has been busted in 5/7 of those events.
What other country even comes close to that crazy rate? And as stated above, it's very improbable that there will be no more busts from those years. And even then, it's just as improbable, that they will represent all the bad apples caught.
So 7 events x top 3 in each = 21 top 3 athletes for 2015-2018.
Six of those have been busted already. That's over a quarter.
3 of the top 10 Kenyan marathoners have been busted. 3 of the top 14 800m runners have been busted. 2 of the top 3 Kenyan 1500m runners have been busted.
Any other country with that confirmed doping rate would already have been suspended.
Anyone remember when Rekrunner insisted that it was only Kenyan women being busted and do that Kenyan men work harder than everyone else?
Yes but he meant working at "planting potatoes".
Track doing what track does. Smh but this will just give another, younger, Kenyan a chance hopefully.
Please take that back!
VroomVroom wrote:
Track doing what track does. Smh but this will just give another, younger, Kenyan a chance hopefully.
Some 9 year old running 3:31 no doubt. That's how ridiculous the sport is getting because they never got a handle on East African doping and age cheating.
Hardloper wrote:
OG Coconino Cowboy wrote:
Biggest bust since Kiprop......
Just as big as the Kiprop bust, in my opinion. Asbel Kiprop always seemed like a bit of a clown. I actually think it's possible Kiprop was clean until he started struggling around ~2016.
Kiprops demise was predicted in 2014
https://kenyapage.net/commentary/kenya-sports-commentary/someone-please-advise-asbel-kiprop-before-he-loses-his-career/Coevett wrote:
Now I've updated my Kenyan elite doping stats.
...
I took a look at the Kenyan men's top lists for each flat track event from 400m to 10000m, as well as the half marathon and full marathon, for 2015-2018.
...
Here is the list of elite busts, and their position in the Kenyan rankings for the four years 2015-2018.
400m
3. Bonface Ontuga MWERESA
800m
3. Alfred KIPKETER
10. Kipyegon Bett
14. Asbel Kiprop
1500m
1. Asbel Kiprop
3. Elijah Manangoi
5000m
6. Cyrus Ruto
1000m
18. Vincent Kipsegechi YATOR
half-marathon
1. Abraham Kiptum
Marathon
2. Wilson Kipsang
9.= Daniel Wanijuru
9.= Abraham Kiptum
While I commend the effort to put data behind your analysis, once I start looking at the cases, there are a few things here that leave me less impressed (and I don't mean just the typos and misspellings).
For example, you call MWERESA a top athlete by virtue of his "top-3" status in Kenya. However, Kenya is not really known for 400m, and MWERESA ran 45.01, a performance ranked #2375 all time, and was busted for Higenamine.
Another example, YATOR is #18 in 10000m -- unsurprising to find one doper in the top-20, but not very damning. YATOR is not particularly fast, at 27:14.70, ranked #304 of all time. He was busted for testosterone and steroids.
Several of your top-3 examples were busted for whereabouts (Kipsang, Kipketer, and Manangoi), which is an anti-doping rule violation, but not necessarily conclusive of doping.
If we look at athletes who have performed in the top-100 all-time, actually busted for doping, this list reduces to just Kiptum, and Kiprop.
I note here once again that Kiprop ran his fastest time in 2015, and in 2016 got slower and in 2017 got slower again. He was busted from a test in November 2017.
Your repeated plea to bust a nation based on busts would also have us banning US sprinters. Recall that nations cannot be banned for number of busts, but Russia was banned for widespread tampering with and failure to enforce anti-doping.
I don't think you're wrong but I do think doping is widespread in other (majority white) countries even if athletes aren't getting caught.
rekrunner wrote:
Coevett wrote:
Now I've updated my Kenyan elite doping stats.
...
I took a look at the Kenyan men's top lists for each flat track event from 400m to 10000m, as well as the half marathon and full marathon, for 2015-2018.
...
Here is the list of elite busts, and their position in the Kenyan rankings for the four years 2015-2018.
400m
3. Bonface Ontuga MWERESA
800m
3. Alfred KIPKETER
10. Kipyegon Bett
14. Asbel Kiprop
1500m
1. Asbel Kiprop
3. Elijah Manangoi
5000m
6. Cyrus Ruto
1000m
18. Vincent Kipsegechi YATOR
half-marathon
1. Abraham Kiptum
Marathon
2. Wilson Kipsang
9.= Daniel Wanijuru
9.= Abraham Kiptum
While I commend the effort to put data behind your analysis, once I start looking at the cases, there are a few things here that leave me less impressed (and I don't mean just the typos and misspellings).
For example, you call MWERESA a top athlete by virtue of his "top-3" status in Kenya. However, Kenya is not really known for 400m, and MWERESA ran 45.01, a performance ranked #2375 all time, and was busted for Higenamine.
Another example, YATOR is #18 in 10000m -- unsurprising to find one doper in the top-20, but not very damning. YATOR is not particularly fast, at 27:14.70, ranked #304 of all time. He was busted for testosterone and steroids.
Several of your top-3 examples were busted for whereabouts (Kipsang, Kipketer, and Manangoi), which is an anti-doping rule violation, but not necessarily conclusive of doping.
If we look at athletes who have performed in the top-100 all-time, actually busted for doping, this list reduces to just Kiptum, and Kiprop.
I note here once again that Kiprop ran his fastest time in 2015, and in 2016 got slower and in 2017 got slower again. He was busted from a test in November 2017.
Your repeated plea to bust a nation based on busts would also have us banning US sprinters. Recall that nations cannot be banned for number of busts, but Russia was banned for widespread tampering with and failure to enforce anti-doping.
What are you talking about? You might not regard suspensions for missed doping tests to be doping offences, the rest of the world does, and most importantly the AIU and World Athletics does.
I'm sorry I haven't made myself clear (as for the typos and spelling errors, I copied the names straight from World Athletics). I took the three fastest Kenyans from every men's event from 400m to marathon. That's 27 runners (including 400 hurdles and the steeplechase). 6 of those 27 have been banned. That's great that only the 18th ranked 5000m Kenyan has so far been busted. Perhaps that's why they are useless that event now whereas they were absolutely dominating it only a decade ago?
I know you're being willfully obstinate, and hoping Casual Observer will come in shortly to wreck the thread entirely with you, but it's very simple.
6 of the top 27 Kenyan male runners (top 3 in each event) have been suspended or banned for doping offences. Three of the five male medalists at the London World Championships have been suspended. And there's likely more. There was one 2 days ago.
BTW, I'm surprised your stats brain didn't spot it rekrunner, but I got the marathon figures wrong. I missed out Sammy KITWARA (and had Kiptum a bit higher than he was). So, in fact, four out of the 12 fastest Kenyan marathon runners in the four seasons 2015-18 have been busted.
Marathon :
2. Wilson Kipsang
8. Sammy KITWARA
9. Daniel Wanijuru
12. Abraham Kiptum
Are they not elite enough for you and El K?
Coevett wrote:
What are you talking about? You might not regard suspensions for missed doping tests to be doping offences, the rest of the world does, and most importantly the AIU and World Athletics does.
I'm sorry I haven't made myself clear (as for the typos and spelling errors, I copied the names straight from World Athletics). I took the three fastest Kenyans from every men's event from 400m to marathon. That's 27 runners (including 400 hurdles and the steeplechase). 6 of those 27 have been banned. That's great that only the 18th ranked 5000m Kenyan has so far been busted. Perhaps that's why they are useless that event now whereas they were absolutely dominating it only a decade ago?
I know you're being willfully obstinate, and hoping Casual Observer will come in shortly to wreck the thread entirely with you, but it's very simple.
6 of the top 27 Kenyan male runners (top 3 in each event) have been suspended or banned for doping offences. Three of the five male medalists at the London World Championships have been suspended. And there's likely more. There was one 2 days ago.
BTW, I'm surprised your stats brain didn't spot it rekrunner, but I got the marathon figures wrong. I missed out Sammy KITWARA (and had Kiptum a bit higher than he was). So, in fact, four out of the 12 fastest Kenyan marathon runners in the four seasons 2015-18 have been busted.
Marathon :
2. Wilson Kipsang
8. Sammy KITWARA
9. Daniel Wanijuru
12. Abraham Kiptum
Are they not elite enough for you and El K?
I'm not too concerned with what "the rest of the world considers", as facts are not decided by popular vote.
"Doping offenses" or not, both dopers and non-dopers can commit whereabouts failures, and you cannot tell from a whereabouts violation, which is which.
World Athletics spells Rutto with one "t"? Not in his profile. Who calls 10000m the 1000m? I spoke of the 18th runner in 10000m, an event which has been rarely run in the last decade.
Sammy Kitwara was busted for Terbutaline in 2019.
I didn't list all my objections, but I do also wonder at the relevance of a 2019 bust for your period of 2015-2018.
Kiptum was elite enough, and remained in my list of top-100 performances actually busted for doping.
Kitwara's 2014 performance would too, but not any of his 2015-2018 performances.
Just for your information, I noticed at least one more mistake.
Very good work by Coevett and rekrunner! Very interesting material. There are so many doping Kenyan doping busts that it is hard to a make a complete detailed list.
you'll never see western countries held accountable for their state doping programs cause they run the 'antidoping' system
Thankfully, it appears there are few doping apologists in Kenya itself. They are aware of the scale of the problem, the guilt of the athletes, and have a real desire to clean it up.
Elijah posts regularly on multiple social media accounts, showing off his latest sharp suits or car. How difficult could it be for him to use this app on his smartphone to report each day which hour slot and where he can be tested, then still either not do so or not be at the reported time/location THREE TIMES IN THE SPACE OF MONTHS (he claims all three missed tests occurred last year during his spell out with injury)?
Rekrunner, ex-runner, and I have to say Canova too, would like us to believe that 21st century Kenyans are little more than children, unable to get to grips with modern technological wonders such as the smartphone and social media.
They're not, even if I get called racist for denying it. They just have a lot of athletes (encouraged by mainly Western agents and coaches) trying to game the system.
rekrunner wrote:
Subway Surfers wrote:
Anyone remember when Rekrunner insisted that it was only Kenyan women being busted and do that Kenyan men work harder than everyone else?
Probably no one. Did it happen?
Yes, I remember that.
Coevett wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
Probably no one. Did it happen?
Yes, I remember that.
Your memory is flawed.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
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