close in 52 wrote:
1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.
2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800
I agree with this. Legit it is the 800. But the 5k and 10k are most obtainable with the spring boosted shoe technology. The 10k is a distance the shoes will help at. Kenny B could probably have broken 26 or 12:30 if he had the shoes in his prime.
close in 52 wrote:
1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.
2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800
+1
sub 1:40 sounds possible, especially if they use some really good long sprinting spikes with some of that alphafly tech inside it.
The 800m and 5000m times will probably eventually happen. Those mile and 10k times will probably not happen, especially not the mile. El G was the perfect miler, running in the EPO era, in a perfectly paced race where he was challenged right down to the line. 3:43 may never be broken, never mind 3:40.
To run 1:39.99 you’d need someone to bring you through 600 in 1:13 high or 1:14 low. There are a lot of guys capable of making that pace.
To run 12:29.99 you’d probably want to come through in 7:31-32. More difficult to find someone who can pace you evenly. Then you need to break 5:00 for the last 2k all by yourself.
Same for the 10k. How far could someone get paced evenly at 62.4 per lap? 6k? 7k? If you made it to 7k on pace you’d need to solo a 7:48 last 3k...
cnskjdf wrote:
The 800. Not because the record is weak, rather because more will attempt it and more athletes with different strengths will have a chance.
To run sub 26, you probably need to be a 110 pound dude of E. African descent.
The number of humans with a 0.01% chance of running 1:40 is just bigger (imo) then the number of humans with a 0.01% chance of running 26. And fast 800s are run all the time. 10Ks at that pace are run almost never. An 800 stud can take multiple cracks at records in one season. 10K guys blow it all in one race. MAYBE two.
agree-way easier to set up 800s and multiple attempts in a season...10000m getting to be a rare bird-let alone a race set up for speed..
what do we think about braziers 1500m/mile potential?
My Thoughts wrote:
If I travelled back in time to 1972 when the 800 record was 1:44, I'm sure I could find people saying "Sub 1:42 is impossible"
Why would they say that when it was 1:46 less than 20 years earlier?
20 years before now it was 1:41 low and now it's 1:40 high. It's less than 1 second faster than it was 40 years ago. It's hit the wall.
Rudisha himself could never have gotten near 1:39. He'd have to go out in 48 and that would kill even him. That little difference of a half to one second on the first lap means everything on the second lap.
close in 52 wrote:
1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.
2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800
+1
The sub 3:40 mile might not happen for another 100 years
[quote]carbonplatedmagic wrote:
Well, according to Canova both the 5k and 10k WR are rather weak, at least compared with what Bekele could have done in his opinion.
I know Canova is a coaching legend, but this logic just does not hold up at ALL.... both of these records have stood for over 15 years, and he considers them weak?!?! They are two of the most impressive times in track and field history, if not the entire history of human athletics.
Obviously, I think all of these are unlikely to be broken for a long time, although you never know...
But if I had to pick, in order of most likely to least likely:
5,000
10,000
800
Mile
It was a hard pick between 5 and 10, but I went with the 5 just because it’s run more often. I think there are a few guys that can run under 12:40 (5 or so, without counting), which is an increase from 2-3 years ago so if the influx keeps up, it’s possible one of them could break 12:30? Again unlikely but still the most likely of the choices.
The 10 has Kamworer, Cheptegei, and Kipruto, all capable of running under the current WR but breaking 26 would be insane. But who knows, if one of them really goes for it and somehow doesn’t get popped...
800m Brazier is a freak, but I’ll still be surprised if he breaks 1:40.... and no one else is even close. When barely anyone comes within 2 seconds of that barrier I can’t see it happening.
The mile, as others have said, is equal to about a 3:25 1500. Cheruiyot hasn’t even broken 3:28, and nobody else even broke 3:30 last year (going off memory so I could be wrong here). This is not happening.
Bad Wigins wrote:
My Thoughts wrote:
If I travelled back in time to 1972 when the 800 record was 1:44, I'm sure I could find people saying "Sub 1:42 is impossible"
Why would they say that when it was 1:46 less than 20 years earlier?
20 years before now it was 1:41 low and now it's 1:40 high. It's less than 1 second faster than it was 40 years ago. It's hit the wall.
Rudisha himself could never have gotten near 1:39. He'd have to go out in 48 and that would kill even him. That little difference of a half to one second on the first lap means everything on the second lap.
I would argue that Rudisha breaks 1:40 by going out .25s slower and not closing in 26.5 rather than taking it out harder. Or even just being a hair fresher from not having run a couple races over the previous days. Or drafting behind someone for 500ms.
Agree. Rudisha was obviously a 1.40.4 man with drafting, and with today's shoe technology he had gone sub 1.40.
I hope I can present a world class runner to break the standing world records at 1500/ mile in a couple of years. Preparations are in progress.
Rhodium Nights wrote:
[quote]carbonplatedmagic wrote:
Well, according to Canova both the 5k and 10k WR are rather weak, at least compared with what Bekele could have done in his opinion.
I know Canova is a coaching legend, but this logic just does not hold up at ALL.... both of these records have stood for over 15 years, and he considers them weak?!?! They are two of the most impressive times in track and field history, if not the entire history of human athletics.
He just tell that they are week to make it look better he has coached some 26: 40-26:55 runners, lol.
Bad Wigins wrote:
My Thoughts wrote:
If I travelled back in time to 1972 when the 800 record was 1:44, I'm sure I could find people saying "Sub 1:42 is impossible"
Why would they say that when it was 1:46 less than 20 years earlier?
20 years before now it was 1:41 low and now it's 1:40 high. It's less than 1 second faster than it was 40 years ago. It's hit the wall.
Rudisha himself could never have gotten near 1:39. He'd have to go out in 48 and that would kill even him. That little difference of a half to one second on the first lap means everything on the second lap.
Yeah 800m progression has halted almost as much as 1500m progression.
To answer the question then the most likely is the 10k, followed by the 5k, then 800 then mile.
The problem is the 10k is never raced anymore so then the 5k is the most likely.
But I think the 10k is by far the easiest of those marks.
However this is an extremely theoretical question. It's like saying will man drill to the center of the earth or walk on Mars first? Both are very unlikely for a long time.
If you wanted to ask a shorter term question then it would be which world record will be broken first, 10k, 5k, 1500/mile or 800? That's a bit more interesting.
100% that 2 hour marathon has been broken. It was on October 12 2019.
pattylover2001 wrote:
100% that 2 hour marathon has been broken. It was on October 12 2019.
Nope... and it is because of pacers rotating in/out and because of a shoe prototype with a stack height close to 50mm which would be illegal even with all the leeway they are giving to Nike these days....
So the real question is how much that 2.01 can be lowered in a certified race setting....
That is not a good logic. the 5000m and 10000m use virtually the same aerobic percentage. The shorter distances have different contributions from anaerobic and aerobic systems.
That is why some runners are able to close the second half of a 10km at close to their 5km time when the pace isn't too fast. An 800m runner will never be able to run the last 400m close to his 400m pb.
Also a 1:40:00 runner will also have to split well under 49 to compensate the crazy deceleration that will inevitably occur on the last 300m. Probably 48.2 and that is assuming the guy can actually run 1:40.
It would likely take sub 3:28 and sub 44 ability.
Sub-7:20 3000? wrote:
Bring back the mile. wrote:
Now that the 2 hours marathon barrier has been broken what other magical barriers can we expect to be broken in the future? Out of the following which is most likely?
800m 1:39
Mile 3:39
5000 12:29
10000 25:59
Definitely the 800. It will take a super fast 400 guy to move up or maybe a really good 400h guy who is just super strong.
The mile (3:40 is just ridiculously fast when the WR was probably *aided*) seems improbable. I would say the 5000 is next most likely and then the 10,000 because the 10,000 is rarely ever run. Actually, the 26:00 barrier is the least likely to be broken. It wasn’t that long ago that an untouchable, likely doped Aouita could barely break 13:00 for one 5,000.
I do wish they would run more miles and less 1500s. 3 3/4 laps just seems arbitrary, despite being the international distance. It’s like running a 700 instead of an 800. Silly.
1500 meters is 1.5 kilometers. The metric world can relate to that. 5000 meters is 12.5 laps why don't they run 4800 meters so it's 12 even laps?