57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

real polling data shows Trump landslide victory wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

How many of these so called “positive cases” actually involve sickness????

Can’t or won’t answer the question???

Wisconsin has maxed out its hospital capacity and had to build a 1,000 bed field hospital for COVID patients. Over the summer, many states in the south that experienced a surge of cases had to canabalize hospital beds for COVID patients and had to shut down elective procedures. They also had to bring in extra medical staffing from the US military and from northern states that brought their cases under control.

Cases in Texas are beginning to surge. Past two days have been 5,200 and 4,500. That is a break from a couple weeks of @3,500 a day. The past two days in the Houston area saw new hospitalizations at over 100 a day for the first time in a few weeks. I could just be a blip on the radar, but given that restrictions have been relaxed, it is likely the beginning of a fall surge.

If this happens all across the US at about the same time, there will not be enough doctors and nurses to handle the surge of cases. We have been able to get through these surges by moving resources around, but we have not had to deal with a nationwide surge. And there certainly has been no Federal preparation for such a surge. Hopefully, people will do the right thing and start pulling back from any risk taking and stop this surge. But if they don't, we are just sitting ducks for a catastrophic fall and winter.

Bull!

real polling data shows Trump landslide victory wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

How many of these so called “positive cases” actually involve sickness????

Can’t or won’t answer the question???

More than 220,000 have been sick enough to die from COVID in the US.

Currently, more than 1,300 Georgians are hospitalized with COVID. Down 50%+ from the peak, but remaining stable or a slight uptick the past couple of weeks.

Wear a mask

Social distance

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GET TESTED

HAVE A VIRTUAL THANKSGIVING

Another day with 4,500 positives in Texas. It is definitely a trend. Governor appears in El Paso without a mask sitting next to a Texas Supreme Court appointee at a press conference to announce her appointment.

A program to deliver quick tests to school districts sent tests to eight school districts. None of them were in El Paso where there is currently a significant outbreak or the Dallas area where cases are starting to rise fairly quickly.

Bars are open up to 50% of capacity in most counties. Only a few of the largest counties have held off.

No sign that the Governor is going to do anything or is at all concerned. Hopefully, Trump gets blown away and the Governor realizes that he will be vulnerable in 2022 if he just lets the virus get out of control this winter and puts in some restrictions after the election (or lets local governments have some control). Legislature goes into session in 2021 and all the right wingers are going to introduce bills banning any sort of COVID measures.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Epidemiologists-call-Texas-COVID-uptick-a-15648755.php

Right on , Roy ! History will be harsh on Abbott, DeSantis and Kemp. 3 Trumpets !!

real polling data shows Trump landslide victory wrote:

Bull!

Well! If you say so, I think that should be good enough for anybody--none of that pesky "evidence" stuff required!

5,692 new cases in Texas today. El Paso is still struggling. Dallas is starting to surge. Houston is not far behind. San Antonio and Austin are doing ok. RGV is holding on. Hospitalizations are surging.

This is the worst week for cases since the end of August. Governor needs to allow local governments to implement restrictions. Not every jurisdiction needs restrictions right now. But El Paso is really bad and indoor dining and large gatherings need to stop (at a bare minimum).

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/16/texas-coronavirus-hospitalizations-surge/

7-day average for deaths is at 18.3/day. Lowest since post-shutdown low on Jun21. Down 75% from peak.

7-day average for cases is up 9% over last two weeks.

Positivity is at 7.1%. Up 29% from 3 weeks ago.

Current hospitalizations remain relatively stable.

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It is now clear that Texas is seeing a new outbreak. 7 day moving average on new cases is above 5k for the first time since August. Hospitalizations were down to about 3,200 when the summer surge bottomed out back in September, but are back up to over 5,000. About 9,500 was the peak for hospitalizations over the summer.

El Paso has the worst outbreak in the state. DFW is next worst with Tarrant County (Fort Worth) getting hit pretty hard. West Texas (Lubbock, Midland/Odessa) and the panhandle are also seeing big increases in cases. Cases are climbing in Houston but hospitalizations are not yet spiking. Houston is probably a week or two behind other parts of the state.

Texas is probably more open now than it was back in June when the summer surge started. People in the cities are good about mask wearing, but are going to restaurants and getting pretty loose about social distancing. Face to face school in the big cities is also underway and a lot of employers made workers return to the office now that in person school is an option. In the rural parts of the state, mask wearing is about 50% even though there is a statewide order in place. Governor Abbott is not discussing new restrictions even though he has order a military hospital in El Paso to take overflow non-COVID patients. El Paso local officials are trying to do a stay at home order and have a curfew in place. But it is largely unenforceable as the governor has made it clear that local governments cannot exceed the state wide emergency order.

Colder and dryer weather will finally take hold over Texas over the next few weeks. The only hope at this point is a huge Democratic win on November 3 with the Texas House of Representatives going to the Dems for the first time in two decades will give the Governor cover to implement statewide lockdown measures. Texas rode out the summer surge with masks and closing in person dining/bars for a short period. With kids in school and a lot more activity going on now, the fall surge will more than likely be much worse.

7-day average for cases up 30+% in last 3 weeks in Fulton County.

7-day average for deaths now above 1/day after a low of 0.4/day ~10 days ago.

Current hospitalizations up 11% in last 2 weeks in Georgia.

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Precious Roy wrote:

Face to face school in the big cities is also underway and a lot of employers made workers return to the office now that in person school is an option.

...

With kids in school and a lot more activity going on now, the fall surge will more than likely be much worse.

fortunately, most reports indicate that schools are not a source of the spread of COVID.

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brazen2 wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Face to face school in the big cities is also underway and a lot of employers made workers return to the office now that in person school is an option.

...

With kids in school and a lot more activity going on now, the fall surge will more than likely be much worse.

fortunately, most reports indicate that schools are not a source of the spread of COVID.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

HAVE A VIRTUAL THANKSGIVING

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

HAVE A VIRTUAL THANKSGIVING

I don't have an NYT subscription. An NPR story in a similar vein a few days ago looked at a bid study in Spain. Most of the kids were in very well controlled classroom environments where they were kept in small bubbles of a few students per teacher and had good hygiene practices. If you limit the number of different kids and teachers students interact with to numbers below 10, you can by definition stop superspreader events in schools.

But, the virus is definitely in the schools. Just look at Utah's covid tracker for schools. It closely mirrors the broader outbreak in Utah with much higher rates for HS age students who are more likely to interact with more students because of class scheduling. And you also have the problem of the "mom code". This happened in my kids' district on the first day of in person school. A parent sent a COVID 19 positive student to HS because they didn't want their kid to have to miss 14+ days of class by reporting the positive test.

Schools can be lower risk environments with good HVAC filtering, masks, social distancing and testing. But if the virus is present in the community, it will make it into the schools. And if control measures are poor in the schools, students can definitely be a part of fueling an outbreak. That is what happened in Israel.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

https://kutv.com/news/coronavirus/parents-fear-mom-code-will-keep-covid-19-numbers-artificially-low-in-utah-schools

Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August. Houston's ISD had set metrics for when in person school would take place and when the district would shut down. The district just started in person school and the positive rate exceeded the district's metrics. Instead of shutting down, the district just abandoned the metrics and will wing it from here on out.

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Social distance

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34% of COVID-19 deaths in GA are from large-scale nursing home residents.

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Cases continue to rise since the low on 9/26 (34% increase - 9/26 - 11/2 [14-day confidence window])

Deaths continue to drop. At 19.9 deaths/day on 11/2 (14-day confidence window). Lowest since 6/23.

Current ventilator at/near lowest point which was prior to shelter in place period in April.

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I thought that Biden's election would give Republicans in Texas some cover to do the right thing. What a fool I was. Governor Abbott thinks that Trump's holding the line in Texas is a big thumbs up to his "leadership" and is now talking a 2024 run for president. When cases broke 10k a day, Abbott tweeted that Texas would have a vaccine by the end of the month. This was just a ploy to get people to think that there is no reason for a lockdown because a vaccine would be available in a few weeks. Meanwhile, in El Paso, prisoners are being recruited into supporting the morgue because there are too many bodies for the morgue's staff to handle. El Paso tried to impose a lockdown, but has been blocked by the courts on the ground that the Governor's emergency order prohibits local governments from taking action.

The outbreak in Texas is on track to eclipse what happened over the summer. Right now, the hotspots are El Paso, Lubbock and DFW. Houston area is seeing a steady climb in cases and just started to see cases over 1,000 a day. Peak over the summer was 2-3,000 a day. Interestingly, San Antonio and Austin have been holding the line and have not seen a big spike in infections. I was out camping in the area the last two weekend and definitely get a sense that people are taking masking and distancing seriously out there. But with (relatively) cold temperatures setting in and the Thanksgiving holiday, I would expect Houston to catch up pretty quickly with SA and Austin not far behind.

Deaths in GA have been flat for the last 48 days ending outside the 14 day confidence window (Sep30 - Nov16). Range has been between 19.7 and 26.1 deaths/day.

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