Should I lead the first half of Olympic Trials then drop?

Avocado, I think your reservations about OP's proposal are more applicable to races that include both elites and mass start runners, e.g. Chicago. At the Olympic Trials, there is already a filter that has weeded out people like the guys who would try to lead Boston for a mile or two then start carrying the piano. Here, the range is much narrower -- maybe a small handful of sub-2:10 guys, but the vast majority of the field will be 2:10-2:18 guys, so the discrepancy between the fastest and the slowest is nowhere near what it would be for a race that includes the general public. If OP wants to try this, why not? He won't be any more in the true contenders' way than a would-be-true-contender who comes in with an injury, goes with the lead pack in hopes their injury doesn't flare up, but then drops back/out when their odds run out and the injury flares up. As someone pointed out above, the only person's race he will hurt will be his own.

That's often -- maybe usually -- true, but not always. Frank Shorter said, "The man to fear is the one you do not know." And the physique and stride of a 2:16 marathoner often don't look much different from a considerably faster runner. Steve Spence's physique and stride looked about the same when he was a 2:16 marathoner as they did when he was the best marathoner in the country and a WC medalist. Most people who looked at Rob DeCastella (with a muscular physique and generally a heal-toe stride) didn't see a guy who appeared capable of running a WR in a modern marathon. And even if the serious contenders know someone isn't a threat, those who are providing media coverage have a more difficult task if he's not identified as designated pacer.

I am a qualifier. I genuinely wonder what would be a more memorable experience for me: placing as well as I can which would be 50-100 best case scenario or running with the country’s best for as long as I can. It seems like there is a 75/25 split on whether I should do it. I will have family and friends attending, so I will have to get them on board with the idea before I fully commit to it. The last thing I would want is for my parents to take the time to watch me race only to be disappointed that I didn’t race to place as best I could. But maybe they would be more excited to watch me knowing I’ll be with the leaders. Who knows? I haven’t talked to them about it yet.

For the record, I would absolutely be going for a PR if it wasn’t a noon start time.

I’ll just say this. It’s a race and you qualified and therefore you have every right to run it any way you please to satisfy whatever goals you may have and no other competitor has any business looking at you sideways. They can run their own races. It’s total nonsense that you should be expected to run certain splits or in a certain place in the pack based on your level or ranking or previous pr. You have every bit the right to run in the front and hang on or run in the back and pick people off or anything in between. Best of luck. I hope you enjoy yourself and feel good about your effort regardless. If you want to set your unofficial 1/2 pr and see what it’s like up front, go for it.

Maybe, but there is no way the OP slipped through the cracks. If he was capable of making the team, he would have track PRs of at least 13:20/27:40 and I doubt he has broken 29:00. If he does lead early, it’s unlikely he’ll make it to the halfway point and he’ll receive little attention by the other runners and the race commentators during that time.

Receiving TV time and attention would certainly be cool in a funny sense, but I’m more motivated by the experience of running with or slightly in front of the country’s best for as long as I can. Maybe that’s 10K, 15K, or 21.1K. I am continuing to improve as a runner.

It’s not as if you’re Chris Barnicle. Who definitely amazed me from his story. You earned the right to be there. The Pearl Clutchers complain about everything. They complain about women returning from a maternity period or qualifiers who are toeing the line in less than optimal circumstances (injury, life bumps and bruises)

I applaud your accomplishment already. Your family and friends will be happy and proud of you regardless of your approach. You do you

To those contending the OP will create a risky situation or at least a distraction for the true contenders, I offer the following:

- OP is obviously a skilled and experienced enough runner that he knows how to not trip people up or impeded them. He may not have run in the front of the Olympic Trials before, but I'm sure he has experience in leading and winning less competitive races.

- whichever runners finish top 3 and make the team (or however many the US is allowed send next year) had best be used to running with "people who don't belong in the lead pack" during the actual Olympic marathon. In the Olympics, there are always going to be random runners who are nowhere near medal contenders up in the lead pack early in the race looking for their 15 minutes of fame and to be able to make the fans back home proud when they see them on their local TV station. OP should take comfort in that he's helping prepare the eventual Olympians practice for what they'll encounter during the Olympic marathon.

Ignore Avocado. I can imagine his anger in 2000 watching 2:40 qualifier Christine Clark leading the OTM. I can imagine his even greater anger when she managed to win the race. How dare she win as a "B" qualifier and make it a one-woman Olympic marathon team over "A" qualifiers. (The US decided ahead of time that a single "B" qualifier winner would have priority over the top-3 "A" qualifiers to meet the Olympic qualifying rules.)

Will you go for it if it ends up being a cool day in Feb? Or will the noon start mess with you too much to pr anyways?

I completely agree with Wise Old Man - you earned your spot there and have the right to run the race as you so choose. I loved seeing the women who qualified for the Trials and then became pregnant running at the back of the pack - they EARNED their spot, they didn't take it away from anyone else, and they had the right to enjoy their accomplishment. Whatever your circumstances are on race day, or however you wish to run the race (provided you don't impede anyone else) - you earned that right. If I qualified and were injured, I would line up and run the first 100 meters and drop out if I had to...for the "hobby joggers" who make it to Boston, they have the right to run it however they choose. Some people do it as a victory lap for the accomplishment of qualifying, some do it just for fun, some choose to race aggressively. To each their own.

Personally - I'd run with the lead pack as long as possible and be part of the race. You get a front row seat to see how the early part of the race unfolds, maybe you get pulled to a time you didn't think you were capable of, maybe you see you aren't all that different from the guys who wind up winning. There are races to do for time and there are races to do for the experience - I'm nowhere near that level, but if I were in shouting distance of the leaders for the first hour, I think that would be thrilling.

My fast days may be behind me but if I got in good enough shape to have a sub 3 marathon not be a pipe dream, I would definitely aim for that over a conservatively paced, smart race that falls between 3:03 and 3:06 and never has a chance at sub 3. I've run fast times before, but a sub 3 at my age is a much bigger deal to me than running a smart 3:04! If I blow up, I'm old enough to know that the worst races are usually the funniest stories to remember years later!

3.5 weeks out...what's your plan, OP?

OP you gota make up your mind now

I decided that I WILL attempt to lead the first half of the race or for as long as I can. I recently ran 2x4 miles @ 64 flat half pace with 3 min jog between. Trying to help the men secure that third spot. A 64 flat would be a PR, and I can save my legs for a couple of regional spring marathons I can win some decent prize money on. Plus the glory. No, I won’t be interfering with any runners or making a clown show out of the event. I’ll be racing my ass off a step or two ahead of the field. Cheer me on. I’m going to need it to keep that pace.

grrrrr *shakes head angrily* it was at this time i called my buddies in provo utah to activate the byu defense force, a flying v formation that will protect the integrity of glorious king coner mants and his wr attempt.

Is that you T-Roy!?

Perhaps, I may be of service...

Recommendations upon request.

Can't wait to see you in Prime Time TV on Saturday.