Indiana XC predictions

Right. They were also missing Montgomery. But cg still would have lost if they both raced

Week 5 Meets to look for this next weekend. Hopefully weather at least can hold up to be able to race. Really sucks Columbus North couldn't be run last weekend due to thunderstorms. Rankings are based off of Indiana Runner. No Sure who's going all out or not either this next weekend.

Eagle Classic (Brown County) - 9 Ranked Teams
#1 Carmel
#3 Zionsville
#6 Columbus North
#7 Center Grove
#9 Brebeuf Jesuit
#10 Bloomington North
#11 Bloomington South
#13 Westfield
#19 Floyd Central

Wildcat Invite - 3 Ranked Teams
#2 Noblesville
#12 HSE
#16 Penn

Mason Ohio Invite - 3 Ranked Teams
#5 Fishers
#15 Brownsburg
#22 Mt.Vernon

Bob Thomas Invite - 3 Ranked Teams
#18 Portage

#21 Lake Central
#23 Chesterton

Ben Davis Invite - 2 Ranked Teams
#4 Valparaiso
#8 Franklin Central

Minutemen Classic - 2 Ranked Teams
#14 Northridge
#17 Goshen

All Catholic Invite - 1 Ranked Teams
#20 Guerin Catholic

FW Northrop Invite - 1 Ranked Teams
#25 Homestead

It's gonna be frustrating when 1/2 the teams run 1/3 of their team at Brown County.

Franklin Central is looking really good next year. They are only getting rid of their #1 guy.

Oooof the Eagle Classic lineup looks ABSURD. That course just might be the fastest in the state. The times there this weekend could be real spicy.

And I think bringing in a stud freshman that has broken 10:00 for every race he's run this year.

Will be interesting to see who runs full strength. Will Zionsville boys run all their guys after running so well last week? Will Carmel run their full group? 3 weeks away from Nike Twilight which will be even more loaded than this.

Seems like Center grove ran everybody. Even Garrett. And only got 4th. And look how close Columbus north and Zionsville were to Carmel. Columbus north seems to be reloading.

carmel also seems to have a 5,6,7, and 8 runner get close to their 4

Brebeuf was missing Legue and Williams. It seems like based on not having raced so long, Legue will probably be in the similar shape as Lesnet (or younger Burrell) if he returns

Fishers IN finished 3rd in this meet behind Mason OH and Rock bridge MO.

Mason was missing their top nonsenior from state last year. Liao didn’t score like he did last year. They got depth though. They could go to NXN this year if Center Grove can’t put it together at NXR.

Freshman Jacob Mitchell freshman 15:36. Went to middle school in the little town I’m from ( Oolitic)… very challenging area to be from and be a runner.

Very exciting and I hope he has a great running career.

What is going on at Center Grove. They were supposed to be lights out this year.

Obviously weren't on top of recruiting out of state transfers.

Sounds like they are gonna need him again this year

Another reason XC and track need classes. How many 1a or 2a are ranked in the top 25 compared to 5a and 6a schools?

Columbus North are solid through 4. They could be even better if they find a number 5.

Thought I’d make a new set of rankings after these last two
weekends.

The favorite

1. Carmel (S1): Barring disaster, no one is beating the Carmel
Greyhounds this season. Mathison and Provenzano are all but assured to make it
onto the podium, and Leedke has very good odds to join them. Biltimeier and
Capes are a very solid four and five who should have no issue helping the
hounds secure their first title since 2018. Additionally, depth is not an issue
for them at all. Their tenth runner finished, at worst, ahead of every other
teams seventh runner yesterday. I have no insider knowledge, and don’t wish ill
upon them, but they have a solid amount of injury insurance should things not
go to plan.

Hoping to take home the smaller trophy

2. Zionsville (S2): They’ve been rolling all season and finished
second behind Carmel in a fantastic race yesterday. Helton gives them a
potential all-stater, and five runners with PRs under 16:00 is a feat only
matched by Carmel right now. In several years they would be fighting for a
title, but Carmel has their best team since at least 2013, and maybe ever.
Their best hope to pull off the upset would be to hope for Carmel’s entire back
end having a rough state meet, and to put their entire pack in the 15-40 range.
I like their chances to finish on the podium as a team for the first time in
school history.

3. Columbus North (BC1): It was nice to finally see them
race yesterday after their meet last weekend was rained out. In their one race
they have certainly out performed their preseason expectations, and look to be
a team with >50% odds to be on the podium now. Through four, they were
better than Zionsville yesterday, but they don’t have the fifth that Zionsville
or Noblesville have. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think we’ll see any wild
improvements for them at five, as their fifth, sixth, and seventh runners are
all seniors. They have their conference meet next weekend, so we won’t see them
race high level competition until the twilight meet.

4. Noblesville (S3): I really wish that the Columbus North meet
wasn’t canceled last weekend, so we would know how they stack up against Zionsville
and CN. Two weeks ago I had felt like they were structured fairly similarly to
Zionsville, but they had the edge. After this weekend I think that has flipped.
Propst gives them a good chance for an individual all stater, and a pack that
might be a step or two behind Zionsville. They should race Zionsville next weekend
at Flashrock and will definitely race next them the following weekend at the
HCC meet. Also, FWIW, INCCStats considers Zionsville and CN’s performance yesterday
(and Zionsville’s State Preview performance) better than anything Noblesville
has done this season.

Probably the last podium spot

5. Center Grove (S4): I’m definitely off the CG hype train.
Even with Garrett’s return, they were nowhere near Zionsville or Columbus North
yesterday, despite running their supposed top 7. Hennessey and Mimbela are
trending in the right direction from state preview, but they haven’t lived up
to expectations at all this season. Of course, the talent is there, and for all
we know, they might be treating every race as a workout right now, but until I’ve
seen something significant, they are out of the conversation for the runner-up
trophy and the safe bet for fifth.
Have a chance to grab that last spot on the podium (these
three felt like a crapshoot to rank)

6. Valparaiso (NP1): They made quite the statement by finishing
second at the state preview meet, behind Zionsville and ahead of Fishers, while
going 1-2 individually. They have a fantastic 1-2 punch in Dillabaugh and
Nobles, but aren’t as deep as the other teams in this group towards the back
end. However, their 3-5 are tight, and
if those boys keep pushing each other forward they might be looking at their
first team podium since 2017. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing them compete against
any of these other teams until state because of geography. Look for them to
cruise to wins at New Prairie, DAC, sectional, regional, semi state, and hopefully
carry that winning momentum onto the podium in Terre Haute. New Prairie has had
its share of teams spoil the fun for central Indiana teams at the state meet
over the years, and Valpo grabbing the last podium spot might be the next
example.

7. Fishers (NH1): Its tough to really access how they looked
last weekend since they only competed against Brownsburg and Mt. Vernon. They
were a point behind Valpo at state preview hence their lower ranking. Sam Q
looks to have had an off race last weekend based on how close he was to Meaux
and Wilson, but its hard to say for sure given I can only base it on how close
he was to them. Sam Q still gives them the front running to get on the podium,
but 2-7 need to close the gap if they want to get the job done as a team. They presumably won’t race their varsity at Flashrock,
as they haven’t in nearly a decade, and then we will get to see how they look
against Franklin Central at the HCC meet the following weekend.

8. Franklin Central (S5): Like Noblesville in the runners-up
contenders, they sort of ended up being the odd man out in this trio. I think
the results show that they belong in this group, but without any competition against
the other schools in this group, I’ve listed them as third based off of
INCCStats. They have strong depth and some good front running to match it. As
the season progresses, watch for frosh Stevenson to have more progession than
the average runner. Stevenson moving up higher onto their varsity would do a
lot to put them into a position to steal a podium spot. Two weeks ago I said it
was possible for them to be a victim of geography, but I think it’s a fairly
safe bet for them to make it out. They have 3 straight weekends of high level
competition on deck now. Flashrock this weekend, HCC next weekend, and Nike Twilight
the following weekend.
Likely state meet top ten

9. Brebeuf (S6) At this point, Brebeuf doesn’t have the four
and five to place themselves into podium contention. Todd and Rosio have
performed as expected this season, while Burrell has been a bit more up and
down. Unfortunately it looks like they’ve also taken some injury hits to what
would have been other probable varsity athletes this season. Its certainly not
impossible that they get them back in time, just look at the state meet last
year, but its always going to be tougher for a school with 800 students to deal
with injuries than a school with 5000 students. Even though I have them ranked sixth
in their semi state, it looks like there is a pretty clear line between the
sixth and seventh best teams at Shelbyville so they should have the luxury of not
putting some much physical and especially mental energy into even qualifying
for the state meet.
I think they’re tenth best right now.

10. Bloomington South (BC2): They’ve had a solid season with
a win at the Harrison invite, and a sixth place finish at the Eagle Classic
yesterday. They lost to cross town rival, Bloomington North, at the Terre Haute
early bird meet, but came back with a win yesterday (although North was
slightly shorthanded). Like Brebeuf, they exist in the unfortunate bubble of a
team that is very solid, but just doesn’t have enough to get on the podium.
Look for them to really test the waters at the Nike Twilight meet, coast through
sectional and regional en route to semi state, and then comfortably make it to
state.

Honorable mentions (alphabetical order)
Bloomington North, Floyd Central, HSE

These rankings are based on how I feel like the state meet
would shake out if it was run this coming Saturday. Unlike two weeks ago, I did
not make assumptions or give teams the benefit of the doubt. We have had enough
weekends of competition, and, in my opinion, there was no excuse for any team in
the Eagle Classic to not go all in. My primary consideration when making these
was head to head results, but I used INCCStats to help make sense of the data
when a head to head matchup hadn’t occurred. For example, Zionsville is ranked ahead
of Noblesville because two of Zionsville’s three 5k team performances are
considered better than Noblesville’s two team performances. For similar
reasons, Fishers is ranked ahead of Franklin Central. Even though Franklin
Central has the best overall team performance (Marion County), Fishers has four
performances that are better than FC’s second best team performance.

Looking forward, we will see all of the Central Indiana teams
I’ve listed race at the Flashrock Invite this coming weekend, though it is anyone’s
guess as to who actually races from the top teams. This coming weekend we will also
see how the NP teams stack up against each other at the NP Invite. The
following weekend will feature the HCC meet, which should have a great battle
for first and second between Zionsville and Noblesville, and another great
battle for third and fourth between Fishers and Franklin Central. The weekend
after will feature the Nike Twilight meet which will feature every top ten team
except for Valpo.

Heard that Mimbella has been a little under the weather, and Hennessey came into the season with an injury. Still a long way until the state meet, so I expect them to pull it back together over the next few weeks.

Those interviews make it sound like Carmel is going all in on Flashrock next weekend. Makes sense since no longer have a conference meet to prepare for. Hopefully CG will too since they are in the same boat.