uhduhhh wrote:
I don't know why people are focusing on Meb's time at NYC as a negative indicator. It's not like these guys are running time trials. He made a tactical decision to stay with the pack at a slow pace for a large portion of the race. Whether or not that was a good decision is another matter, but that is why his time was so much slower than his PR.
He also finished at a slow pace too. What was his last 10k? 32 minutes plus? Let's not forget that part. Slow + slow = slower.
Does everyone forget that most of the 20+ year old's are not racing lately so they can solely focus on the OT's?
Yes Meb is fantastic. However, does anyone remember John Campbell?
New Zealand runner, who at 40 y.o. ran a 2:11 at Boston on a hot day.
Meb is NOT Campbell. Our best marathoner to date is another Kenyan -turned American. Ho hum. No American born has a chance of getting a gold medal since... Frank Shorter. Hall had the times, but not the heart. Ritz has the heart, but currently declining. Sam Chelenga is our future.
New wave coming wrote:
How the hell is a 2.13 7th place at NY a perfect race?
There are 4 US marathoners faster than Meb this year alone!
Plus, there's a host of untapped talent, including former Africans, currently training with reckless abandon. One or two will survive and will surprise everyone. One thing about the marathon, expect the unexpected.
Several guys are coming in off 2.10 races followed by a reasonable recovery and massive build up. At least one of these guys will make it to the next level.
Saying someone won't make the team isn't going out on much of a limb. What three runners do you think will beat him?
The former Africans will beat him.
The four guys with faster 2015 marathons will beat him.
The guys who ran 2.10 last year and this year will beat him.
The top guys who didn't race a marathon three months before the trials will beat him.
Some of the young guys taking risks in training will beat him.
Some of the young guys who will take risk in the race will beat him.
Father Time will beat him.
His inability to train at the level he trained when younger will beat him.
His 40 year old body will not recover like it used to will beat him.
His reliance on eliptigo will beat him.
Injury will beat him.
Pride will beat him. (He will go with the leaders who have spent the last six months out training him).
Not the favorite wrote:
The former Africans will beat him.
The four guys with faster 2015 marathons will beat him.
The guys who ran 2.10 last year and this year will beat him.
The top guys who didn't race a marathon three months before the trials will beat him.
Some of the young guys taking risks in training will beat him.
Some of the young guys who will take risk in the race will beat him.
Father Time will beat him.
His inability to train at the level he trained when younger will beat him.
His 40 year old body will not recover like it used to will beat him.
His reliance on eliptigo will beat him.
Injury will beat him.
Pride will beat him. (He will go with the leaders who have spent the last six months out training him).
So you're saying a healthy Meb will finish in the 20s? Troll elsewhere.
If you feel the need to add the qualifier "a healthy Meb" you actually agree age is likely to be his undoing.
That's his problem. Getting to the start line healthy is allowing younger guys to out train him.
Cooked spud wrote:
If you feel the need to add the qualifier "a healthy Meb" you actually agree age is likely to be his undoing.
That's his problem. Getting to the start line healthy is allowing younger guys to out train him.
I guess, but he just did a nice, controlled 26M long run pretty much at his goal marathon pace, so how much more training does he really need to do between now and trials? And which of the young guys are actually going to beat him at trials. That article that someone referenced earlier in this thread has a useful list:
American Men’s sub-2:12 marathons since 1/1/14
Meb Keflezighi: 2:08:37 (Boston 2014)
Luke Puskedra: 2:10:24 (Chicago 2015)
Jeffrey Eggleston: 2:10:52 (Gold Coast 2014)
Ryan Vail: 2:10:57 (London 2014)
Dathan Ritzenhein: 2:11:20 (Boston 2015)
Bobby Curtis: 2:11:20 (Chicago 2014)
Elkanah Kibet: 2:11:31 (Chicago 2015)
Fernando Cabada: 2:11:36 (Berlin 2014)
Nick Arciniaga: 2:11:47 (Boston 2014)
If Ritz is on, he should win, but historically he's been much less consistent than Meb. Of the up and comers, Puskedra seems like the most promising and could also beat Meb if he runs as well as he did in Chicago. 1 of "and the rest" could also have a great day and beat Meb, but none of them have demonstrated consistency at the 2:10 - 2:12 level. And of course Estrada could hit it out of the park in his debut.
Bottom line: I like Meb's chances, but there are no guarantees in marathoning.
What's the point of a two year old performance? His 2.08 was two years ago. That's meaningless.
On current form Meb is 2.13. He raced. Why spin it into a training run when it wasn't?
Why state yiu can't see anyone else running 2.10 when a handful already have.
Meb's attempting to angle himself as favorite for the trails because it's his last chance to make any money from the sport.
