After Meb's performance at NYC today, do you think he is more likely to make the US Olympic team? Or less likely?

Meb does not make the team. He'll get a lot of pre-race pub/hype,

but I see him coming in 5th or 6th. He's 40, with a lot of marathons on his legs

and while he'll be up front for the first 30k, when the racing finally starts,

he's not going to be able to hang. His Boston win was almost two years ago.

Great career, but he's not making the team.

40 ain't 36.

His current form is 2.13, pretty good considering, but his best days are long behind him. His biggest competition is Father Time. His brother will do his best to spin Meb as the favorite to get some sponsorship money flowing because there's little chance of actually making the team.

Meb is 5th fastest US marathoner in 2015. Calling him the favorite is a big stretch.

This year Meb was 2nd American at Boston [behind Ritz] and 1st American in NYC.

IF Ritz is healthy, he's probably the favorite to win the race, but that's always a big IF with him, and Meb has demonstrated that he in fact is healthy right now.

So...if I had to pick one guy today to call "the favorite" for the win, I'd go with Meb, but the real point of the race is to go top 3 and make the team, and I see Meb as the safest bet to accomplish that task.

Ritz could certainly win the race, but it wouldn't be shocking if he ends up a DNS or a DNF.

As for the other contenders, hey, who knows, it's the marathon, weird things can happen, but I'll be somewhat (pleasantly) surprised if two of them break 2:12 and very surprised if two of them beat a healthy Meb. [different story if Meb picks up an injury between now and race day.]

bigtool05 wrote:

We know exactly what we're going to get from Hall. A shitty race, a DNF, or a DNS. He had an amazing career, but it's over.

BUT will he control the race from the rear?

I think the field for the US men is so weak that Meb will make the team if he is able to run 2:10-11. Ritz has not finished under 2:10 for 26.2 since 2013. He looks decent on the roads, but not like a guy who is going to dominate. He has always had big problems getting through a marathon without sever cramping. He has the talent, but has glass legs and is on the tail end of his career. Hall has not run a good marathon since 2012. Nick had a terrible NY. Eggleston crashed and burned in Boston. Cabada could only manage 2:15 in Chicago. Bobby Curtis has not run 26.2 since 2014. Puskedra is the only guy who is really coming into the trials with a good head of steam in the marathon. Lots of guys look good at shorter distances and there are lots of guys at 2:12-13 who might have a great day and PR to get on the team. But the reality is that there is not a lot of depth in the upper echelon of US marathon talent. If Meb has a decent day, he can match most anyone else in the field and make the team.

What does Meb usually do, even lately, vs the top Americans??

He beats them.

While there is a list of guys who could possibly break through in the marathon, the likelihood of any one doing it at the Trials is low. Meb knows how to execute in tactical races. Realistically, who is really going to beat him? Ritz could. Puskedra could. I'd love to see Estrada kill it. But at the end of the day, I'd give Meb the greatest odds of making the team.

And the truth is that it is a little sad that there is talk about depth, but we don't have anyone who is currently capable of 2:06-2:07 on a flat course or 2:09-2:10 on a challenging course. Nobody.

So yes, a guy that can run 2:13 at NYC will probably make the US Team.

*stipe wrote:

A guy that can run 2:13 at NYC will probably make the US Team.

Compare to the 1983 NYC Marathon going into 1984 trials:

ROD DIXON M33 19 178 PA United States USA 1 1 1 2:08:59 4:55 2:08:59 98.3

GEOFF SMITH M30 T762 2 RI United States USA 2 2 1 2:09:08 4:55 2:09:08 98.2

RON TABB M29 4 2 OR United States USA 3 3 2 2:10:46 4:59 2:10:46 96.9

JOHN TUTTLE M26 44 61 AL United States USA 4 4 3 2:10:51 4:59 2:10:51 96.9

JOHN GRAHAM M27 3 522 BI England 5 5 4 2:10:57 4:59 2:10:57 96.8

GIDAMIS SHAHANGA M22 1011 556 TX United States USA 6 6 5 2:11:05 5:00 2:11:05 96.7

RUDY CHAPA M25 C57 2 IN United States USA 7 7 6 2:11:13 5:00 2:11:13 96.6

DOMINGO TIBADUIZA M33 30 128 NV United States USA 8 8 2 2:11:21 5:00 2:11:21 96.5

DEREK FROUDE M24 73 542 A. Australia 9 9 7 2:11:25 5:00 2:11:25 96.5

JUKKA TOIVOLA M34 13 523 0 Finland 10 10 3 2:11:35 5:01 2:11:35 96.3

DAVID GORDON M24 41 9 OR United States USA 11 11 8 2:11:41 5:01 2:11:41 96.3

PATRICK PETERSEN M23 X785 130 NY United States USA 12 12 9 2:12:06 5:02 2:12:06 96.0

KIRK PFEFFER M27 7 179 CO United States USA 13 13 10 2:12:20 5:03 2:12:20 95.8

KEVIN RYAN M35 24 84 MA United States USA 14 14 4 2:12:53 5:04 2:12:53 95.4

SANTIAGO DE LA PARTE M35 47 552 PA Spain 15 15 5 2:12:54 5:04 2:12:54 95.4

DAVID LONG M29 29 128 KY United States USA 16 16 11 2:12:57 5:04 2:12:57 95.3

Do you mean the Trials held on May 26, 1984? Something tells me that more Americans would be willing to run NYC with 7 months to Trials than with 3 months. They also could be fully tapered and ready to run fast (versus basically training through NYC and timing their peaks for February).

dkny64 wrote:

*stipe wrote:

A guy that can run 2:13 at NYC will probably make the US Team.

Compare to the 1983 NYC Marathon going into 1984 trials:

ROD DIXON M33 19 178 PA United States USA 1 1 1 2:08:59 4:55 2:08:59 98.3

GEOFF SMITH M30 T762 2 RI United States USA 2 2 1 2:09:08 4:55 2:09:08 98.2

RON TABB M29 4 2 OR United States USA 3 3 2 2:10:46 4:59 2:10:46 96.9

JOHN TUTTLE M26 44 61 AL United States USA 4 4 3 2:10:51 4:59 2:10:51 96.9

JOHN GRAHAM M27 3 522 BI England 5 5 4 2:10:57 4:59 2:10:57 96.8

GIDAMIS SHAHANGA M22 1011 556 TX United States USA 6 6 5 2:11:05 5:00 2:11:05 96.7

RUDY CHAPA M25 C57 2 IN United States USA 7 7 6 2:11:13 5:00 2:11:13 96.6

DOMINGO TIBADUIZA M33 30 128 NV United States USA 8 8 2 2:11:21 5:00 2:11:21 96.5

DEREK FROUDE M24 73 542 A. Australia 9 9 7 2:11:25 5:00 2:11:25 96.5

JUKKA TOIVOLA M34 13 523 0 Finland 10 10 3 2:11:35 5:01 2:11:35 96.3

DAVID GORDON M24 41 9 OR United States USA 11 11 8 2:11:41 5:01 2:11:41 96.3

PATRICK PETERSEN M23 X785 130 NY United States USA 12 12 9 2:12:06 5:02 2:12:06 96.0

KIRK PFEFFER M27 7 179 CO United States USA 13 13 10 2:12:20 5:03 2:12:20 95.8

KEVIN RYAN M35 24 84 MA United States USA 14 14 4 2:12:53 5:04 2:12:53 95.4

SANTIAGO DE LA PARTE M35 47 552 PA Spain 15 15 5 2:12:54 5:04 2:12:54 95.4

DAVID LONG M29 29 128 KY United States USA 16 16 11 2:12:57 5:04 2:12:57 95.3

Note there are guys listed as United States that are not from the US (Dixon, Smith), but you point is correct - more depth.

My first inclination is to say less likely looking at his nycm time, but the course and the way the race played suggest to me he is still a legit sub-2:10 guy. I seriously doubt Meb will win, but I can only see one or two athletes capable of finishing ahead of him. Also, most of the top athletes have not been consistent and Meb has the advantage of rarely having a bad day. Btw, a masters athlete making the USOT has more to say about the state of U.S. marathoning than how great Meb is.

*stipe wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

Compare to the 1983 NYC Marathon going into 1984 trials:

ROD DIXON M33 19 178 PA United States USA 1 1 1 2:08:59 4:55 2:08:59 98.3

GEOFF SMITH M30 T762 2 RI United States USA 2 2 1 2:09:08 4:55 2:09:08 98.2

RON TABB M29 4 2 OR United States USA 3 3 2 2:10:46 4:59 2:10:46 96.9

JOHN TUTTLE M26 44 61 AL United States USA 4 4 3 2:10:51 4:59 2:10:51 96.9

JOHN GRAHAM M27 3 522 BI England 5 5 4 2:10:57 4:59 2:10:57 96.8

GIDAMIS SHAHANGA M22 1011 556 TX United States USA 6 6 5 2:11:05 5:00 2:11:05 96.7

RUDY CHAPA M25 C57 2 IN United States USA 7 7 6 2:11:13 5:00 2:11:13 96.6

DOMINGO TIBADUIZA M33 30 128 NV United States USA 8 8 2 2:11:21 5:00 2:11:21 96.5

DEREK FROUDE M24 73 542 A. Australia 9 9 7 2:11:25 5:00 2:11:25 96.5

JUKKA TOIVOLA M34 13 523 0 Finland 10 10 3 2:11:35 5:01 2:11:35 96.3

DAVID GORDON M24 41 9 OR United States USA 11 11 8 2:11:41 5:01 2:11:41 96.3

PATRICK PETERSEN M23 X785 130 NY United States USA 12 12 9 2:12:06 5:02 2:12:06 96.0

KIRK PFEFFER M27 7 179 CO United States USA 13 13 10 2:12:20 5:03 2:12:20 95.8

KEVIN RYAN M35 24 84 MA United States USA 14 14 4 2:12:53 5:04 2:12:53 95.4

SANTIAGO DE LA PARTE M35 47 552 PA Spain 15 15 5 2:12:54 5:04 2:12:54 95.4

DAVID LONG M29 29 128 KY United States USA 16 16 11 2:12:57 5:04 2:12:57 95.3

Note there are guys listed as United States that are not from the US (Dixon, Smith), but you point is correct - more depth.

True about guys incorrectly labeled "US" but the depth thing is just kind of sad to me. Funny that back in 1983 I had no idea who Rudy Chapa was. Also can't say I've noticed people talking about his post-collegiate marathon running.

My opinion about Meb is unchanged after NYC: he'll make the team. I'd bet on the best combination of experience and recent results if I were to put money on it: Meb, Ritz, and Vail are most likely to make the team. Of course the marathon is difficult to predict, and there are lots of other guys who could make it instead. But I wouldn't bet on anyone with little or no marathon experience (Puskedra, Estrada, Chelanga) or without good recent results (Hall, Abdi). That still leaves a number of other guys nipping right at Vail's heels, though (especially Eggleston).

I don't know why people are focusing on Meb's time at NYC as a negative indicator. It's not like these guys are running time trials. He made a tactical decision to stay with the pack at a slow pace for a large portion of the race. Whether or not that was a good decision is another matter, but that is why his time was so much slower than his PR.

I mean I could see plenty of scenarios where Meb would not make the team, but I can't pick 3 guys that I would say have better chances.

He ran a perfect run at NYC. Top ten finish. He wasn't going to front run with Biwott and Kamw.

Meb is a lock for Rio. He deserves it too. He'll run the time and be in the top three at trials.

How the hell is a 2.13 7th place at NY a perfect race?

There are 4 US marathoners faster than Meb this year alone!

Plus, there's a host of untapped talent, including former Africans, currently training with reckless abandon. One or two will survive and will surprise everyone. One thing about the marathon, expect the unexpected.

Several guys are coming in off 2.10 races followed by a reasonable recovery and massive build up. At least one of these guys will make it to the next level.

Let's get real here:

In a marathon, Kimetto would be 2.5 miles ahead of Meb and Puala Radcliffe would be half a mile behind Meb.