Paris Mens 5000m Start List - Can Galen Rupp Get the American Record?

J.R. wrote:

Pardon me, but Rupp is not capable of leading a race when it's fast, especially against top competition. I'm not saying he won't, but if he does then it will be a miracle, as it's something that he never does. He doesn't even lead when the competition is much slower than he is, so he is NOT PREPARED to lead and push against runners who are equal in ability.

It depends what you mean by "leading" and "pushing." In the 26:44 race, he took the lead at 900 meters when he could have waited until 300 or 200. He wanted the record and he had trust in his long kick.

In the 7:30 indoor 3000m AR race, the live feed didn't show the race from 800m to 2750m, so it's hard to know exactly what happened. But when the feed came back at 2750m, it was Rupp leading and being stalked by Ndiku. Given the margin they had on everybody else, Rupp had probably been leading for a couple of laps at least.

Again, he wanted a record, and the long kick strategy got him the win.

He certainly needs a good pace for the majority of the race. If he gets that, and senses an opportunity for a record, it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to go for it.

mission man wrote:

It depends what you mean by "leading" and "pushing." In the 26:44 race, he took the lead at 900 meters when he could have waited until 300 or 200. He wanted the record and he had trust in his long kick.

Please don't tell me you consider being in the lead in less than the last 10th of a race to be leading. That's just called winning. If he only took the lead with 900m left that means he didn't lead the race.

I don't want to seem like a pessimist, but I don't think Rupp will get the record. He can't be in THAT much better shape than 12:53, and if that's the case, then things need to go almost perfectly. Seeing as the pacers seem to get things right 20% of the time (I think that's even being a little too generous, and it's supposed to be rainy in Paris tomorrow, I don't think things will play out well enough for Rupp. Hope I'm wrong though.

Rupp won't break 13

whatever the pace is I predict 4th place for rupp. I think it'll be around 1257 for the winner and 1259.41 for rupp

nutsak wrote:

kybaws wrote:

I'm interested to see what kind of race and what time Lawi Lalang runs. Is he sponsored does anyone know? Nike, Adidas?

I will cut off my own nut sak with a kite string if Lawi beats Rupp.

....However, I would love to see it happen.

So, you're a masochist ;)

agc5k wrote:

sc42 wrote:

What a field... golden opportunity for Rupp, True and Lalang to PR.

but also a golden opportunity for Rupp to disappoint and get ridiculed to no end on letsrun

Or a golden opportunity to set an American record and get ridiculed to no end on letsrun

Rupp has had 2 solid years of training since his 13:58 and is close to his peak age for 5k.

In that time his 10k has come down and his mile/3k/indoor 5k are world class.

I predict a 3+ sec PR and closing in 60/56. How fast overall depends on the rabbits.

Pessimist wrote:

it's supposed to be rainy in Paris tomorrow

Rain is not certified by a guy who has lived and trained for a decade in Oregon?

I strongly suspect Rupp will not get the record. I do think he will break 13 though.

That said, I think Rupp is physically in shape to do it. However, good pacing is, for god knows what reason, a pretty rare thing at the elite level. Combine that with the fact that Rupp needs his 'A'game for a shot at it and potential for some wind I'm saying the odds of it happening tomorrow are about 10%.

However, if the leader hits 4k in 10:20 or better I'm pretty confident Rupp will get the record.

I'm both annoyed and bemused by the fact that the first part is the case. I can somewhat understand poor 800 pacing, where you don't get much chance to correct. However, this is a 5000, it shouldn't be hard to make a slight adjustment if you are over/under the first lap and then continue on at target pace. History shows that for some reason this is not the case.

my point was that none of them are beating Rupp at 5000 and running 12:5x, but all have gone faster at the 1500

USA fan wrote:

Rupp has had 2 solid years of training since his 13:58

soonerz wrote:

my point was that none of them are beating Rupp at 5000 and running 12:5x, but all have gone faster at the 1500

True is faster at 5000 than them too.

times two wrote:

The IAAF scoring tables equate Rupp's 7:30.16 3000m to a 12:52.3 5000m.

Even if you debate the tables, Rupp is supposed to get better as the distance gets longer.

So he should be right there for the record. And Nike and Salazar should realize the pacers can't be taken for granted after what happened in Oslo.

Saying he's better as the distance goes higher would seem true, but idk, because he's had his chance at 10k this year (PRE) and he ran 26:44, but 12:52 is comparatively better than 26:44, when Galen ran that 7:30.16 he was in ridiculous shape and had developed really good speed indicative of his 3:50 mile earlier that indoor season... I would say his 13:01 THIS indoor and in January would be a better gauge, IAAF tables say that's a 12:51 outdoor, but I say it's more around a 12:54-12:55, because Boston University has one of the fastest indoor track in the world... Also, based on his 26:44 I see him more around a 12:55 as well, and with it not being peak weather 12:55 even if he's in 12:53.59 shape would seem reasonable, but I would like for him to prove me wrong, I really want him to break the record!!

Rupp can break the record in three easy steps

1) run 3000 meters in 7:45

2) 67 second recovery jog, 1 lap

3) begin post race workout, 1600m in 4:00.

Salazar would have to trick him but I'm sure it would work.

Of Note: wrote:

soonerz wrote:

my point was that none of them are beating Rupp at 5000 and running 12:5x, but all have gone faster at the 1500

True is faster at 5000 than them too.

And has a faster outdoor 3000 than Rupp.

J.R. wrote:

Horst Girth wrote:

The faster the pace, the better for Rupp in terms of who can kick off a tough slog. Given a good pace, Rupp is ready for the AR.

Pardon me, but Rupp is not capable of leading a race when it's fast, especially against top competition. I'm not saying he won't, but if he does then it will be a miracle, as it's something that he never does. He doesn't even lead when the competition is much slower than he is, so he is NOT PREPARED to lead and push against runners who are equal in ability.

Pardon me, but he doesn't necessarily need to lead a single step of the race to get the American record. But I'm sure you just wanted to go off on your moronic Galen Rupp rants again, because you're the dumbest poster on LetsRun, even dumber than that Nutella1 guy, and that's saying a lot.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Rupp can break the record in three easy steps

1) run 3000 meters in 7:45

2) 67 second recovery jog, 1 lap

3) begin post race workout, 1600m in 4:00.

Salazar would have to trick him but I'm sure it would work.

or a 745 and a 64 then the race to home.

brojo said the maybe the pacers should go a little slower than 1250 pace and kick it in for the record.

i think 1250 pace is right and if the stars are aligned rupp could take a chunk out of the record, if he hits the bell at 1250 pace and still has mustard, then 1247 is the number.

Pessimist wrote:

I don't want to seem like a pessimist, but I don't think Rupp will get the record. He can't be in THAT much better shape than 12:53, and if that's the case, then things need to go almost perfectly.

vento^3 says he is in 12:40-12:41 shape.