It's On: Updated Pacing and Weather Info for Galen's AR Attempt on Saturday

13:08.

13:01

12:52.07

13:18 topz

ndiku 12:49low

ali 12:49high

rupp 12:50low

Rupp appears in awesome shape

He couda gone 26'35 in his 26'44AR ( pace too slow to 5k & he had big kick left in last 800 )

Maybe closer to 26'30 now without worry about his pregnant wife & more consistent training

His speed shoud be there as targetting race, & i do believe he woud be close to Mo at maybe 50-low/mid compared to Mo at 49-high/50-flat

In perfect conditions/pacing/etc I see him around these lines of fit currently :

50.50 / 1'46.80 ->

3'29.75

4'45.59

7'20.88

12'41.06

26'33.37

50.25 / 1'46.30 ->

3'29.17

4'44.92

7'20.10

12'40.21

26'32.93

The problem for this race apart from wind is hugely unambitous pacing target

Shiver me timbers, but 1/2 dozen guys went 12'46 - 12'49 coupla years ago, so why aim for pathetic 12'50 pace ???

To run 12'40-flat, you need 7'36 pace

The are only aiming for 7'42, which even a peak Kennster wouda struggled to bring back quicker than 5'00/5'01 for a 12'42/12'43

The pacing target of 7'42 will limit Rupp to 12'44/12'45 when he is capable of much faster

He is by far the class 5k runner in the field & the pacing shouda been built around him & his wishes & not some Africans who are not capable of < 12'50 currently

These meet promoters need to get a clue...

Rupp 13:04

Ndiku 12:55

Alamirew 12:56

Longosiwa 12:57

Gebrhiwet 12:42!!!

chance of rain means high relative humidity which at 70 degrees is not good.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Rupp appears in awesome shape

He couda gone 26'35 in his 26'44AR ( pace too slow to 5k & he had big kick left in last 800 )

Maybe closer to 26'30 now without worry about his pregnant wife & more consistent training

His speed shoud be there as targetting race, & i do believe he woud be close to Mo at maybe 50-low/mid compared to Mo at 49-high/50-flat

In perfect conditions/pacing/etc I see him around these lines of fit currently :

50.50 / 1'46.80 ->

3'29.75

4'45.59

7'20.88

12'41.06

26'33.37

50.25 / 1'46.30 ->

3'29.17

4'44.92

7'20.10

12'40.21

26'32.93

Wouldn't you think that his abilities at mile and 10000 are more relevant?. Using Jundo and giving him conservative max current capabilities of 3:50.0 (he's run sub-3:51 and is in better shape now) and 26:40 (very conservative, based on how easy that 1:57 close was at the end of the 26:44), we get 12:47.6. More likely, he's capable of 3:49 and 26:35 under perfect conditions, which would give a line at 12:44.9. So yeah, maybe around 12:45 capability? With that in mind, he doesn't have any experience running faster than 12:58, so I'd imagine that actually hitting that capacity might take a couple attempts, and he only has one. 12:50 seems like a good target, honestly, and if he's having a good day, he can kick to high 12:40s. Going well into the 12:40s would be incredible, but ensuring that he gets the AR is probably more important to him. That said, it looks like the weather might not pan out, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the rabbits do a bad job and the winning time ending up closer to 13-flat.

LetsRun.com wrote:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/07/updated-weather-pacing-information-galen-rupps-5000m-american-record-attempt-saturday-paris/

You've got all the info you need. Give your updated predictions.

You guys never disappoint, always exceeding your previous stupidity.

Galen has only himself to blame if he doesn't get the record?

Every runner who's ever raced in Europe, coming from the USA knows all the variables... Has he been there long enough for his metabolism not to need to take a sht in the middle of the race?

Will the weather be benign enough?

Will the pacemakers blow it?

7 years ago you nimrods and your sycophants were predicting that he'd never break the US record in the 10k, that he never medal in a major championship.

Well, dude has smashed the US 10k record, TWICE, and won a silver medal in the Olympics.

Nothing you nimrods have to say really matters.

His career is already a Complete Victory, for the USA, and Oregon, and against your idiot predictions over the years until you started to realize you'd better vote for him cos he was looking like the real deal to get it done for the USA.

None of what you write here matters. Not one person behind the scenes in track and field talks in the press area, or annouce booth, or VIP areas about what LRC has said or prognosticates.

It just doesn't matter.

Rupp's career, like all runners, will arc through ebbs and flows.

His, are, and will, just be at a much higher level than yours...

You're watching a legendary carrier.

Enjoy it.

Collin wrote:Using Jundo and giving him conservative max current capabilities of 3:50.0...

he's capable of 3:49 and 26:35 under perfect conditions...

All Sal's missives on his speed have said his speed is very similar to Mo

I doubt Rupp is little more than a fraction slower at 1500 than Mo, so I would try more like 3'46+ speed for Rupp

BTW, it's better to "experiment" with 400/800 entries to get full line of fit

What they said was a compliment. It's basically saying that Galen is good enough to just go out and get the record--he doesn't NEED perfect pacing, perfect weather, perfect race of his life, etc...all the stars don't have to align for it to happen. He's good enough to just go do it.

A Duck wrote:

7 years ago you nimrods and your sycophants were predicting that he'd never break the US record in the 10k, that he never medal in a major championship.

When did "you nimrods" and their "sycophants" ever say that Rupp would never break the US record in the 10k? When?

Ask your doctor to take you off your meds. It isn't working.

I think I said 12:59.42 on the other thread, I'll stick with it.

12:53 AR

The actual wind readings have been consistently below the hourly forecast.

For example, right now the hourly is calling for 16 mph winds and the actual is 11 mph.

The forecast for race time is 13 mph winds. If it's actually more like 8-9 mph, and then take into account the blocking of a large stadium, won't be too much of a factor.

Galen ran that 3:50 indoors he should be capable of 3:47 high outdoors

12:47.6

Swag Lord wrote:

Galen ran that 3:50 indoors he should be capable of 3:47 high outdoors

That is ridiculous. Indoors is not 3 seconds slower for a mile. It's debateable if indoors is even slower at all. Those indoor races were in PERFECT conditions.

Furthermore, Rupp is not in speed/mile shape. He's been training for 10k. He is not ready to run 3:50 or 50 for 400m.

A Duck wrote:

You guys never disappoint, always exceeding your previous stupidity.

Galen has only himself to blame if he doesn't get the record?

None of what you write here matters. Not one person behind the scenes in track and field talks in the press area, or annouce booth, or VIP areas about what LRC has said or prognosticates.

It just doesn't matter.

Rupp's career, like all runners, will arc through ebbs and flows.

His, are, and will, just be at a much higher level than yours...

You're watching a legendary carrier.

Enjoy it.

If nobody cares about what goes on on these boards why do you spend so much time here defending your boy? Before the race is even run? When no one was even saying anything bad about him? Seems like you're then one who needs to relax and enjoy it.

Rupp wins in 12:51