Totally Stacked 2014 DL 5k Oslo - Hagos, Dejen, Caleb and Galen - Will Rupp get the American Record??

I'll predict a winning time of 12:55 with Rupp in 3rd.

advocate for same wrote:

logician wrote:

Appearance fees

I don't think we should water down fields by reducing appearance fees just because you're tired of seeing 12:50-13:10 races.

Where did I say I was tired of seeing 12:50-13:10 races?

AMERICAN RECORD- RUPP 12:49.22

You heard it hear first. BOOK IT!!!

Star wrote:

spade detector wrote:

I've got a job for you. See how many 5000m races you can find in the last 5 years where running 60, 57 would have won.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcVXyRjZPMw

Last year's Monaco 5000m.

Winning time 12:51.34 (2013 world leader)

Last 800m was 1:59.27 (62.55/56.62)

Also, the New York Diamond league race was won in 13:10 with a 2:08 close by Gebrhiwet.

My guess is that could find more over the last 5 years if I wanted to.

Interesting examples.

Monaco was run in pretty nasty heat / humidity. Rupp, for example, finished 6th in 13:05.17, which is to say over 13 seconds back.

NYC last year was run in really fowl weather - nasty headwind on the back stretch made even less pleasant by rain. Gebrhiwet blew the race apart with a big mid-race surge and had a 7 second lead with 800m to go. The video is actually worth watching - you can get a good sense of the wind from watching Ben True's hair getting blown straight back on every back stretch. see

if you're curious.

His 26:44 converts to a 12:51, so with a little bit of luck and perfect pacing I could see him become first WHITE man to dip below 12:50, which would be a massive feat.

dkny64 wrote:

Interesting examples.

Monaco was run in pretty nasty heat / humidity.

And yet it was one of the fastest 5000m races in history.

Outside of the fore mentioned 2012 Paris race, you have to go back 7 years to find a faster race.

NYC was indeed run in fowl weather, Gebrhiwet blew the race apart with a big mid-race surge through a flock of chicken, who had come from the asylum on Randall's Island. A blast of wind drove them high into the air, over the fence and onto the track. There were feathers everywhere. True was quoted, "this is my kind of weather. Back home in New Hampshire, we get fowl storms every week."

Star wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

Interesting examples.

Monaco was run in pretty nasty heat / humidity.

And yet it was one of the fastest 5000m races in history.

Outside of the fore mentioned 2012 Paris race, you have to go back 7 years to find a faster race.

True. I'd call that a tribute to the top 2 in that race and add that on some kind of "dew point graded" basis those top 2 times were even more impressive than the raw times suggest. But I also think those conditions had something to do with the last 800m not being super fast [and with Rupp finishing so far back.]

Anyway, in tomorrow's race, unless the wind is just horrible, I'll guess the lap splits for the last 800m as 59.5, 54.5 = 1:54 flat for last 800m with Rupp splitting 60, 57 = 1:57 flat for last 800m to finish 3 seconds back. Winning time between 12:48 - 12:58 so Rupp finishing between 12:51 - 13:01.

No one has been pushing the pace in these DL races lately. If Rupp wants a record, he'll have to take the lead. As usual he'll say he's racing to win. Against that field I don't see it happening, and probably his best chance for top 3 is to push the pace himself. But unfortunately I don't see it happening at this one. If he does take over in the middle part, that would be a big departure in tactics, but we'll see. It's a big field, so maybe someone else will get frisky and pull them along. Even perhaps Lomong! Rupp may not be 100% recovered, but he's in form and should try to get the most out of it. 12:51 best case, 13:02 worst case. Still hope to see him hit 12:47 at some point.

This is the meet where Lagat broke Ritz's AR in 2010 in 12:54.12 (Solinsky was 12:56.66, finishing third) and lowered it another second the next year in Monaco.

It's pretty cool that we're talking about having one white guy near the front and low 12:50s potential. 32 years since Moorcroft, ten since Mottram.

There must be a few more outside Kenya and Ethiopia who can do it...

There's probably dozens but they're all playing soccer or more likely, working high-paying white collar jobs.

Ummm, nopers... wrote:

fact is... wrote:

If Rupp can close a 10k in 157, I'll bet he can do as much or better in a typical 5k.

Rupp closed in 1:57 because he had wind-breakers hired who helped him conserve his energy. Don't expect that to happen in a race where Rupp doesn't have someone hired to help him out.

What do you know nothing about this sport at all? Rupp will have people in front of him for most if not all of this race most likely. Unless the pace drags slow and Al tells him to just go for it which seems unlikely. He'll still have "wind breakers" that he didn't hire.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

NYC was indeed run in fowl weather, Gebrhiwet blew the race apart with a big mid-race surge through a flock of chicken, who had come from the asylum on Randall's Island. A blast of wind drove them high into the air, over the fence and onto the track. There were feathers everywhere. True was quoted, "this is my kind of weather. Back home in New Hampshire, we get fowl storms every week."

LOL - well done. And people in NYC think they've seen it all...

Les wrote:

There's probably dozens but they're all playing soccer or more likely, working high-paying white collar jobs.

Hilarious. So says the "white power" guy who can't admit whites are inferior at ANYthing.

Rupp is as talented as any non-african runner who has ever lived. Salazar has discussed how incredible he ran as a frosh/sop with very little training.

Add to this, he's been nearly unbreakable injury-wise, an extremely rare trait.

Add to that, his nearly inhuman ability to recover from hard efforts (witness the post-AR workouts).

Add to that, he's been trained with the best that modern science (cough, cough....no, mostly joking there) has to offer since HS, including almost literally living in a bubble (well, in altitude houses and tents).

All of that combined has produced what we see. That you really think there are "dozens" of such people just strolling around is absurd.

But there *ARE* probably a dozen or more east africans that are either focusing on the marathon, or who are dying of malnutrition/3rd world diseases, etc who if given the chance to be healthy and run and then focus solely on the track (imagine if the $ for winning track 5k's/10k's was similar to marathon prize money) that could run near 12:50.

tophtoph wrote:

http://www.diamondleague-oslo.com/en/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/5000m/?classicview=True

Stacked field and several sub13s, possibly. What do you expect? Jogfest, sit & kick with Alamirew and HG FTW or will they take it out hard? Where do you see Gallen Rupp? Top 3? Any chance to prove better 5k abilities than we all expect? Discuss.

They have all six guys who broke 12:50 in Paris 2 years ago.

Mrr82 wrote:

What do you know nothing about this sport at all? Rupp will have people in front of him for most if not all of this race most likely. Unless the pace drags slow and Al tells him to just go for it which seems unlikely. He'll still have "wind breakers" that he didn't hire.

You are the one who has not been paying attention, Mrrrr. At Pre, Rupp had special paid pacers. They ran to pace Rupp, and ONLY Rupp. So, Mrrrr, which of the runners will let Rupp run directly behind them for the first 4k of this race? Or, think of it this way, which runner would Rupp allow to run directly behind him for 4k?

Ummm, wouldn't that 10k effort have drained Rupp for any AR attempt? Too soon.

After Rupp got out kicked in a 5k, the excuses were that Rupp was saving himself for a 10k AR effort. In other words, Rupp does not do AR efforts for every race.

Nahhh, Rupps fresh as a Swift air freshener, because after the 10k he did interviews instead of a cool down 4Xmile in 4:10, 4:05, 4:02, 3:58.

He was incredibly perky in the 10, bursting with "go". I expect a repeat of the 10, draft for 4200m and break hard. If he can hold off everyone to the second lane he'll have a chance, otherwise same old story - he'll get blown away at the end.

I wish old man Lagat was there, or even old man Mo considering he's running in Portland, but Al wouldn't put all his eggs in one basket except for championships.

Is Bumbi racing or pacing? I assume he's racing but he's been injured and just paced the Pre 5000. Hope he's racing and hits 13:0x. He's going to be in no mans land if he not in shape to run that.