NOP Skeptic wrote:
I generally I wrote:I generally agree with you but Jäger has run 13:02 already and True only lost on e to Hill in that absurdly tactical USA race
Yep, look at this:
1) Derrick: This guy (like True) is an aerobic monster! Why is he going to be in the top and beat the likes of this great field? Because True is not going to let this race get tactical and him and True have the most stamina... He ran a 3:39 last year at Oxy, not world class, but it beats True's 3:4x, and enough to get the job done... PR? 13:08 last year at DL Brussels... why is he in better shape? He looked really good in USA XC Champs and I feel he's the most sharp for this race. I've heard some in Jerry's group he's been hitting his threshold workouts really good and matching the top end speed with guys in the group. This will be Derrick's break out race and the only thing that would make it sweeter is if Cam was running the 5k, but I guess we'll wait and see, but for now I see him getting just over 13:00, 13:00-13:05 range, if not breaking 13
2)True: Ben freaking True was just off Gebremeskel in the 5k and crushed Chris Derrick in the last mile of the 15k, if anything he would kill a 10k right now, but he's running the 5k... Don't forget his training parter SAM CHELENGA ran 13:04 indoors in January giving Rupp a scare, so I know by now True can be in the 13:00-13:05 range
3) Jager: People seem to forget that Jager ran a 13:02 last year at DL Brussels and didn't he beat Rupp in that same race? With solid 3k speed from Steeple's he should be in contention for 13:00-13:05
4) Lamong: Can't say enough other than the 5k's his past 2 years, with a 13:11 win here with miscounted laps, a good tactical 5k at Olympic Trials, a great 3:51 mile beating Centro at Millrose and a 13:08 like 2 weeks later, it's hard to imagine he won't be in the 13:00-13:05 range outdoor
5) Hill: Ryan Hill has been ON FIRE! With a 7:34 3k (a time that 12:58 man Rupp split in his 2 Mile AR attempt) and his ability to hang with those Gebremeskel and Gebrehewit who have PR's of 12:46 and 12:47 (and don't give me crap about how they weren't going all out, Gebrehewit ran a 7:32 with Rupp the year b4) I think Hill is really to do some damage, and if he is there with 200 to go and Centro is no where to be seen, WATCH OUT! Regardless I say he is still in the 13:00-13:05 range
6) Centrowitz: I feel like he's going to realize the 5k is longer than he thinks, but with a backgroud of training with 10k runners like Rupp/Farah I think he may be able to make the jump... Moser had a 1500m background and she ran 15:13 at Oxy so he may be prepared, and with a 3:31 1500m and global medals he has the great mixture of speed and tactics, I'd say he's in the 13:05-13:10 range
7) Bumbalough: The guy who is great, but can never hit it spot on. but hey, he had a great 2k and Millrose and 3k and NBIGP plus he ran a PR of 13:12, with the stacked field I am confidence the top guys can pull him through at the 13:05-13:10 range
8) Heath: Okay, I know I am already going to get crap about this guy, but he ran 7:37 in the 3k at NBIGP beating some top guys and has mid-3:50i mile speed... he's really taken his step up and this race he is going to get the breakout PR he's been looking for, a sub-13:10... Look for him to hang on til about 400 with the pack, of course he doesn't have the finishing credentials as some others so for now I have him in the 13:05-13:10 range
9)Guys like Mead, Korir, and Estrada will love the honest PR past that's been set for them and will get in the 13:10-13:15
10) The collegians that are in the race and the other sub-elites are going to have to keep up and if they do we should see tons of PR's; I would sit here and list all the college elites but I don't have time, but guys like: Ben Sareel, Sean McGorty, Futsum, Parker Stinson, Joe Rosa, Joe Stilin, George Alex, Joe Bosshard, Brian Shrader, Shadrack Kipchirchir, Kirubel Erassa, Mitch Goose, Andrew Colley, Don Cabral, yeah all of these guys have a shot at the 13:20-13:30 range so lets see some PR's!
Thanks for reading my Payton Jordan 5k review, let me know what you think!
P.S. Don't be a LR jerk and rip on me, just having fun here
Good stuff. I DID forget that Jager hit 13:02! But I didn't forget what he has run for the steeple and 3K, and the fact that he and Derrick were about to beat Rupp at PRE last year until Rupp dug in. Granted Rupp looked flat, but we know that they were hungry for it. I still think Rupp is ready for taking on 12:50, but there is no doubt that the gap is closing and he will have to be that good to keep these guys behind him.
I would like to see True race a bit more, I just haven't seen many of his races. Derrick is solid and consistent, but I don't think he has as much pop at the finish to keep these guys behind him. Hill, True, Jager can all close fast and aerobically they are already 13:00-13:10 types.