Bekele vs Farah in London Marathon: who you got and in what time?

the M isn't their natural distance & 1 has too much speed decay & the other doesn't bring enough basic speed to it

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So, to be absolutely crystal clear, you believe that since Kimetto has trained for the Marathon "from the get go"

( 2years of training) that you can just rule out Bekele and Mo from ever running as fast as a dirt farmer just did. Two of the greatest runners the world has seen that have trained their whole lives to run and race.

However, since they haven't done 2 years of marathon training "from the get go" they are screwed. And the analysis above says as much. I just want to make absolute certain that this is what you are saying. There are no other factors except - one doesn't have enough basic speed and one has too much speed decay. This is your final ruling on these two incredible world destroying athletes?

ventolin^3 wrote:

btchti wrote:There's more to evidence than explicit times. A sit-and-kick, obviously not maxed out 5k shows a bit more was available.

tell that to some of the guys around here

- his 12'53 had a drivellous 4th km of 2'38/2'39 ( 13'10/13'15 pace ) & he kicked a 53-flat !!!

only a fool woud believe 12'53 was his limit that day

try more like 12'45 that day at even-pace

- his 26'46 had some jogging early laps of 68, when 64 was required

he threw away 4 or 5s just there without even flattening-out all the laps

try more like 26'35/26'37.5 that day at even pace

Ventolin, no one thinks his limit was 12:53 that day so stop it. What some of us are saying is that that was TWO YEARS ago. You can't assume that he's still in that shape. Too much time has passed since then.

And this business about Rupp being injured is totally irrational. You're literally making up excuses that dont exist. The fact is that Rupp's speed was better than his endurance this year. The same is possible and very likely for Farah.

And stop acting like 400m times are unchangeable. It's possible that Farah increased his times to 48 or 49 seconds. You yourself just said that Salazar has them focusing very heavily on speed drills, weight lifting, and sprinting. They even went to train with a sprinting coach. All of those things could easily take 1-2 seconds off a 400m time especially if the runner had never done those types of training before.

Bekele was not cutting Farah off in that race. He had room to get around him but he couldn't catch up. Bekele even sped up once Farah got close enough. That performance indicates that Farah might not have even been in sub 27 shape at worlds. If he had then he would have won or had his usual 52-53 second finish. But he didn't.

yyy wrote:Nice analsys.So Kipsang could probably go 26:20 if he trained for it, is that what you're saying? You might be right.

He is so smooth

no

my belief is that these guys are running so damn fast for M now, that it is impossible for them to be running 2"03s

( & i believe geoffey was capable of 2"02'30/2"02'45 in his new york form if he'd run that on a flat course with wabbits )

without incredible intrinsic 10k speed

if & when a 2"00'-flat is approached & the guy maya never run a track race ( dennis only ever run 1 in his life ) so now track stats to go one, will morons still be saying

"ok

he run close to 2"00'-flat but nothing on track

he can only be 27-flat guy, otherwise he wouda run a 10k"

???

( this thinking is not far different from the nonsense these morons spouted when bolt ran 19.93 as a 17y ole but had never run a serious 100 ( & didn't do for years ) that similar guys ( exclusive sprint fans though - real dumbsters ) said

"nah

he's a 200 guy

he can't run sub-10 otherwise he wouda run it already" )

i'm talking 26'20 IF when lining up for the M they were told it had been cancelled & a cab was going to take them to the olympic stadium & they woud have to run a 10k with fast wabbits to 5k

to work out what these guys coud run for 10k on the day is the hardest immediate conundrum i have encountered & it is damn hard to figure

( predicting 3'28 for mo was a stroll in the park compared )

predictor-calculator obviously can't predict from track->road due to variability of courses/wind & needs another approach ( still using same tool )

i'll have to post it separately as it took lot of "figuring"...

incredible natural talent & very soon after taking up the sport he runs the M

get a clue

there are 3+ billion men on this planet

how unlikely is it that one of them has the M as their inherent/genetic/etc "hitting zone" distance ???

if you want others, how about clayton/khanoochi/dinsamo/etc ???

i suggest you go see the whuppings kennster got from chebbi/songok/bernie over 5k to ascertain his GOATness

get a clue

the guy is a 5'4 runt

it is hard to envisage that is the best the planet coud offer as the physiognomy of the wr 5k/10k guy

it's even worse with current 800 - a "power" event :

rudy at least has the height at 6'3 ( but an emaciated ~ 155/160 )

current undefeated champ ( except by rudy ) is aman at a pathetic 5'8 ( he looks shorter )/ 121 !!!

for an absolute runt to run 1'42.3 in a power event shows how crap the participation pool in the sport is

above

above

above

+

yes :

if you are going to bring track credentials to the M, 26'50 as best possible is sh!!t

& speed decay from 3'28/?26'30 is too much to turn around easily

too much speed decay for a distance x 4+ current

ventolin^3 wrote:

for an absolute runt to run 1'42.3 in a power event shows how crap the participation pool in the sport is

Ventolin, please explain what height has to do with power.

eh ???

he was an inconsistent trainer & coudn't do 5 push-ups when he joined sal

you seriously think his 3'28 shape doesn't indicate a better athlete for his main 5k/10k ???

drivel

3'28 off 5k/10k training is huge indication he's better at his main events than 2y ago

nonsense

do you have any clue how good is 7'30i ???

& he didn't run it anywhere close to ideal

it's worth about 7'25/7'26 outdoors if perfect race + iaaf/ncaa tables/calculators

if rupp was in 7'25/7'26 shape at worst early this year, how on earth can anyone with possible access to a functioning neurone think the 13'01sb is what was expected from a guy who has run 26'48 to help him hold on ???

nonsense

you way over-estimate increments in short periods

in '11 he was likely high-50

in '13 he was likely high-49

in 2y of solid, brutal training his 400 likely increased by ~ 1s

do not start fantasising about 48s

at this level you fight tooth'n'nail for every tenth over 400, not assign automatic 1 or 2s improvements within weeks

get a clue

these are the ultimate high calibre "machines"

a year of training for an already top-guy offers fractional improvements at 400/800 but manifests as huge at 5k/10k

no

he always had speed ( 1'48 as raw kid )

speed has tightened up slightly but it won't do too much considering all the huge mileage sal has got him to do

he's gone from from 1'48 to high-1'45 ( predictor estimate ) - you think that is jaw-dropping ???

go watch it again

he was pushing mo sideways as much as he coud in funnel

no

he pushed sideways so mo had no room at all in the funnel

it was desperate & rubbish

if this had been a wide track, kennster wouda been dq'ed for the "shoving"

watch the finish here how the thieving kennster "deals" with anyone trying to surge past

look at what kennster is doing soon after last bend finished

bernie probably in

low-49/low-1'45/mid-3'28/7'22/12'47 shape

moron

he destroyed a field including geb-12'46-26'51 who coudn't even finish

it was obviously a damn hard environment

geb-12'46-26'51 finished with a 54 in his 12'46

so how poor was mo's finish here if that guy coudn't even last beyond 7k ???

what a wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

for an absolute runt to run 1'42.3 in a power event shows how crap the participation pool in the sport is

Ventolin, please explain what height has to do with power

please

rudy is 6'3

a runt who is "alleged" 5'8 run 1'42.3

what on earth do think is a "proper" height for 800 King

6'3 or almost 5'8

???

there is too much extraneous here

last day+ i was thinking of 10k off current ~ 2"03 shape, which is hardest current topic of all, rather than getting dragged into replies to morons believing mo was in 27-flat in moscow

i'll open new topic hoping it won't get deleted

Running a 3:28 is not an indication that he has improved his distance times. It's an indication that he's improved his 1500m times. You can't say that he did it off of 5k/10k training because... you don't know what type of training he's been doing. So drop that argument.

Regarding Rupp, you are backing ME up not yourself. If he was in 7:25 shape. indoors and could barely handle running 13:01 outdoors then that means he lost fitness. Why do you act like this is impossible? People overtrain or switch their training focus to speed instead of endurance. It happens. Regardless of the exact cause, he was slower outdoors than indoors. I'm correct and you are wrong. Thanks for supporting me.

Because Gebhiwet couldn't finish doesn't mean that it was a hard environment. It doesn't mean that Farah is way better than him. I don't even know how to respond to this argument it's so dumb. You're telling me that you think Farah is so much better than Geb that Geb could only make it to 7k??? So Farah can hold a pace for 3 KILOMETERS longer than a 12:46/26:51 guy? Even you can't be that dumb. That would mean that Farah was in 25:xx 10k shape. What really happened to Geb is that he and the rest of the new Ethiopians are remarkably inconsistent. But you have willingly ignored that.

And no, no one is fighting tooth and nail to take some tenths of their 50 second 400m time. I know plenty of faster people that have taken off 1-2 seconds within a season or year.

Lastly, please explain what height has to do with power.

drivel

if he'd been a career 1500 guy it mighta been

his only diamond-1500 before was was way back in '09 with 3'33.9

does your peabrain think he woudn't have run a diamond-1500 in last 4y if he "knew" he was a 3'28'er ???

get a clue

he only ran the 1500 because he didn't want a prelim of moscow 5k in monaco

he "avoided" the 5k monaco because that was final calibre sans ethiopians

instead, he got a 3'28...

idiot

he hasn't run a diamond-1500 in 4y

do you think if he knew he was in 3'28 shape last 2y+ he woudn't have run one v asbel/silas in '11 or '12 ???

eh ???

going from 7'25 to 13'01 means he got injury/illness

what part of 26'48 your peabrain not recognise as expected endurance he brings to table ???

drivel

he was in 7'25 shape outdoors & had 26'48 before to hold on

anyone with more than a peabrain was expecting 12'45/12'47.5 off that

if you think 13'01sb was fully fit you are clueless

7'26 / 27'00 ->12'51.7

7'26 / 26'50 ->12'49.5

7'26 / 26'40 ->12'47.4

you can subscribe here to check 7'25

idiot

it means that race was in tough conditions, with a 12'46/26'51 guy crumbling

all the kenyans crumbled as well

learn

kid

this explains why your are still at college & i graduated nearly 30y ago

look up 9.58s

ventolin^3 wrote:

there is too much extraneous here

last day+ i was thinking of 10k off current ~ 2"03 shape, which is hardest current topic of all, rather than getting dragged into replies to morons believing mo was in 27-flat in moscow

i'll open new topic hoping it won't get deleted

this is most fundamental issue of current runners

like i said, too much obscurity to post here

lets see...

ventolin^3 (and lots of others)) wrote:

it was a 3'28

what was it? 3:28.8? more like 3:29 if you round up.

[quote]ventolin^3 (and lots of others)) wrote:

kennster's 60+ in no way indicates he was in mid-26 shape

he got dropped towards the end but miraculously got back

And that was his plan - to pretend he got dropped so that Mo could pick up the pace.

just because he ran 60:10 does not mean he is not in better shape than that. That race was a true race, not a time trial.

I'm not sure if Farah is a great marathoner or not. He might be too fast.

Those WR marathon guys are not able to run 26:30.

Farah's half marathon time is meaningless. It was run in October right after a long and hard summer of racing.

I think that in this moment,in absolute,Mo Farah is few more better than Kenenisa Bekele.Kenenisa prepared Great North Half in a very well and specific way for some months,while Mo Farah was out from World Championship in 5.000 and 10,000.

Very difficult a prevision on their Marathon debut next spring.

In this moment i think that a first Marathon of 2h05'and 2h06'in next spring is possible.But they mus run with regularity on 2'58''/Km(Farah) and 3'00''/Km(Bekele),without run with the first group on 2'55''.If they start on 2'55''i tihink that at 30-35 Km is difficult...then,with some specific experience in marathon is possible also for Mo and Kenenisa run on 2'55''-56''all the marathon,in 2015,2016.