Looking at championship 1500's from a historical perspective one thing is clear. Leading early is putting you in a situation that usually ends badly for you.
Kip Keino '68 Mexico City.
Can you name five out of the hundreds of championship races? Leading, off of a decent pace even jeopardizes premium runners in their heats of a 1500. It is rare that someone is so much better than the field that they can ignore tactics.
Keino came to my mind immediately. However, don't you think that there were extraordinary circumstances with the altitude of Mexico City and an athlete born, raised, and trained at altitude? And that is only one example, not a trend.
Hindsight is usually pretty clear, but I believe that if JI had laid off the lead until somewhere between 300-500 to go that he would be the 2022 WC champion at 1500 meters. He not only took the lead early, but fought to do so. He did not quite have the oomph needed after his momentum was disrupted late. Was this the difference?
I stand by leading a championship 1500 early, especially at a solid/fast pace, will usually end badly unless the leader is vastly superior to the field and that is rare.
Can you name five out of the hundreds of championship races? Leading, off of a decent pace even jeopardizes premium runners in their heats of a 1500. It is rare that someone is so much better than the field that they can ignore tactics.
Keino came to my mind immediately. However, don't you think that there were extraordinary circumstances with the altitude of Mexico City and an athlete born, raised, and trained at altitude? And that is only one example, not a trend.
Hindsight is usually pretty clear, but I believe that if JI had laid off the lead until somewhere between 300-500 to go that he would be the 2022 WC champion at 1500 meters. He not only took the lead early, but fought to do so. He did not quite have the oomph needed after his momentum was disrupted late. Was this the difference?
I stand by leading a championship 1500 early, especially at a solid/fast pace, will usually end badly unless the leader is vastly superior to the field and that is rare.
I wouldn't disagree with your general point - Keino was something of an exception - but I also think that it wasn't ultimately tactics that cost Jakob the WC. He was beaten by a better runner on the day. But as a previous thread showed, that will be debated here till the cows come home. However, as I have said - if Wightman is with Jakob in the home straight he will beat him now. He has more speed with his strength.
Can you name five out of the hundreds of championship races? Leading, off of a decent pace even jeopardizes premium runners in their heats of a 1500. It is rare that someone is so much better than the field that they can ignore tactics.
Keino came to my mind immediately. However, don't you think that there were extraordinary circumstances with the altitude of Mexico City and an athlete born, raised, and trained at altitude? And that is only one example, not a trend.
Hindsight is usually pretty clear, but I believe that if JI had laid off the lead until somewhere between 300-500 to go that he would be the 2022 WC champion at 1500 meters. He not only took the lead early, but fought to do so. He did not quite have the oomph needed after his momentum was disrupted late. Was this the difference?
I stand by leading a championship 1500 early, especially at a solid/fast pace, will usually end badly unless the leader is vastly superior to the field and that is rare.
I imagine that we will find out this weekend, unless you don't consider a DL Final as a championship race. Because I am pretty sure that Jakob will run this one as he has run all his 1500 meter races this season, taking the lead in the first half of the race and then attempting to control from the front.
I imagine that we will find out this weekend, unless you don't consider a DL Final as a championship race. Because I am pretty sure that Jakob will run this one as he has run all his 1500 meter races this season, taking the lead in the first half of the race and then attempting to control from the front.
If that happens, it will be very interesting to watch.
Personally I don't consider the DL a championship race. Championship races, because everyone is there outside of injury or federation shenanigans, have very even fields and heats play into things as well. There is a fine line between 1st and 5th in most cases. I assume JI, especially without Wightman, believes he is far superior to any other runner in the field, and he might just be.
Winning DL races don't seem to hold the importance that a fast time does. Thus, they employ rabbits.......for the very reason I have outlined.
DL or championship, the best thing for JI is a fast early pace run by someone else.
The WC showed it doesn't happen off a fast pace now, either.
A fast pace in which JI led a great deal. He also chose to wrestle the lead from the Kenyan. Valuable energy he needed late.
Looking at championship 1500's from a historical perspective one thing is clear. Leading early is putting you in a situation that usually ends badly for you.
Jakob had to lead. If he allowed the race to slow, he likely doesn’t medal. When you’re the slowest guy in the field speed wise, you must burn the kick out of the faster runners.
Imagine Jakob being in the 2016 Olympic final, either he leads, or finishes 10th place when everyone except him can close in 51.
Why is everyone pretending the 1500 is Jakob's best race? He's a 5k and 10k runner. He's only running the 1500 to extend his career by not burning out.
Jakob is 10x better at the 5k than at the 1500. His 5k win at World Championships was one of the most dominating 5k performances against possibly the most stacked 5k field ever.
I also think that it wasn't ultimately tactics that cost Jakob the WC. He was beaten by a better runner on the day. But as a previous thread showed, that will be debated here till the cows come home. However, as I have said - if Wightman is with Jakob in the home straight he will beat him now. He has more speed with his strength.
I disagree.
Although you clarified "on that day," if they raced 10 times I do not think either would win all ten. To me, that says how the race played out, tactics, and strategy had something to do with outlining "that day."
I believe that if JI is patient early and uses his strength from 350-550 out, Wightman would be hard pressed to cover the final 100 as he did in Eugene.
Could he? Possibly. But I think the odds swing greatly in JI's favor. But as I said, only if JI does not see a need to lead early and really throws down the gauntlet when he does go.
Jakob had to lead. If he allowed the race to slow, he likely doesn’t medal. When you’re the slowest guy in the field speed wise, you must burn the kick out of the faster runners.
Imagine Jakob being in the 2016 Olympic final, either he leads, or finishes 10th place when everyone except him can close in 51.
Kipsang ran 55.5. Do you consider 3:24-3:25 pace to be slow?
Not that Kerr is an authority, but the announcer said, "Josh Kerr said that if JI went to the front it would be a huge mistake." Prophetic?
Without wrestling the lead from Kipsang, would JI had enough to hold off Wightman into the curve and make it more survival than speed? Or could JI have run sub 55 pace from 500 out?
There is nothing to make anything a certainty, well, maybe except for the hindsight that leading before the final drive, was ill-informed and rarely if ever wins a championship 1500.
J.I. should really be frightened regarding J. Wightman's recent 800m, J. Wightman is not just another 1:43.xx 800m guy. History of T&F, there are app. 152 men in sub-1:44 800m club. The vast majority of sub-1:44 800m men have not been capable of sub-3:30 1500m so sub-1:44 800m shouldn't frighten J.I. What SHOULD frighten J.I. is J. Wightman is now more likely to be near sub-2:13 1000m fitness. If J. Wightman breaks 2:13, 1000m, J.I. will be racing for silver at Olympics & W.C., 1500m. On cool northern European evening with rabbits, will J.I. be able to beat J. Wightman in 1500m races? Sure. If J. Wightman joins sub-2:13 1000m club, J.I. will be in championship 1500m races until final (50 to 75)m but he will not be able to win. The ease in which Noah Ngeny destroyed H. el G. final 100m of 2000 Olympics 1500m final, I am convinced Noah Ngeny was setting H. el G. up for two years. In championship races only a sub-2:13 1000m man is going to beat a sub-2:13 1000m in 1500m final. Was Matt C. in sub-2:13 1000m condition, 2016? Obviously he was.
The ease in which Noah Ngeny destroyed H. el G. final 100m of 2000 Olympics 1500m final, I am convinced Noah Ngeny was setting H. el G. up for two years.
I believe that if JI is patient early and uses his strength from 350-550 out, Wightman would be hard pressed to cover the final 100 as he did in Eugene.
Could he? Possibly. But I think the odds swing greatly in JI's favor. But as I said, only if JI does not see a need to lead early and really throws down the gauntlet when he does go.
When interviewed later on in the WCs, Ingebrigtsen said something like “I know I’m in shape to run sub-3:28, and my biggest regret is that I did not try to run that time.” So evidently in his opinion, his best strategy for beating Wightman would have been to go even harder, earlier. And honestly, I’m not sure I see the logic in claiming he would have had a better chance against Wightman if he’d left his move for later.
A fast pace in which JI led a great deal. He also chose to wrestle the lead from the Kenyan. Valuable energy he needed late.
Looking at championship 1500's from a historical perspective one thing is clear. Leading early is putting you in a situation that usually ends badly for you.
Jakob had to lead. If he allowed the race to slow, he likely doesn’t medal. When you’re the slowest guy in the field speed wise, you must burn the kick out of the faster runners.
Imagine Jakob being in the 2016 Olympic final, either he leads, or finishes 10th place when everyone except him can close in 51.
What a laughable take! "The slowest guy in the field speedwise" ? How do you know that?
Are you watching the actual races or are you just theorizing on these boards?
Jakob is the dominant runner also in the 1500m and he has outsprinted many runners who are lauded for their finishing abilities, including Centro, Engels, Wightman starting when he was 17 years old. See Palo Alto 2018.
Jakob Ingebrigsten of Norway pulled away from a loaded field to score the biggest win of his young career at the 2018 Payton Jordan Invitational. He won the ...
Jakob Ingebrigtsen winning the men’s 1500 meters at the 2020 Ostrava Golden Spike meeting in Ostrava, Czech Republic with a time of 3:33.92RESULTS:1. Jakob I...
When interviewed later on in the WCs, Ingebrigtsen said something like “I know I’m in shape to run sub-3:28, and my biggest regret is that I did not try to run that time.” So evidently in his opinion, his best strategy for beating Wightman would have been to go even harder, earlier. And honestly, I’m not sure I see the logic in claiming he would have had a better chance against Wightman if he’d left his move for later.
Because history shows that leading and pressing early spells massive fade/struggle late in championship racing. Many and even most times the early leader is spit out the back. In Eugene, Kipsang went from a close 4th to a distant 7th in the final 100. It just takes so much mental and physical effort to lead early when there is so little differences in talent at that level.
JI is the athlete so I defer to his comment. But if he were a friend I would ask "55.5 is 3:24-3:25 pace. Why did you feel a need to struggle/push to overtake that and lead?"
I believe if he had rested in 3rd that he has the 5K strength to put a sub 55 pace final 500 out there and he is the only person in the field currently capable of handling that, including Wightman. It is not as though Wightman blew him away - several subtle adjustments might have been the difference.
Are you suggesting that he thought leading faster than 3:24 pace was his best option? With hindsight, what do you think was his best option?
When interviewed later on in the WCs, Ingebrigtsen said something like “I know I’m in shape to run sub-3:28, and my biggest regret is that I did not try to run that time.” So evidently in his opinion, his best strategy for beating Wightman would have been to go even harder, earlier. And honestly, I’m not sure I see the logic in claiming he would have had a better chance against Wightman if he’d left his move for later.
Because history shows that leading and pressing early spells massive fade/struggle late in championship racing. Many and even most times the early leader is spit out the back. In Eugene, Kipsang went from a close 4th to a distant 7th in the final 100. It just takes so much mental and physical effort to lead early when there is so little differences in talent at that level.
JI is the athlete so I defer to his comment. But if he were a friend I would ask "55.5 is 3:24-3:25 pace. Why did you feel a need to struggle/push to overtake that and lead?"
I believe if he had rested in 3rd that he has the 5K strength to put a sub 55 pace final 500 out there and he is the only person in the field currently capable of handling that, including Wightman. It is not as though Wightman blew him away - several subtle adjustments might have been the difference.
Are you suggesting that he thought leading faster than 3:24 pace was his best option? With hindsight, what do you think was his best option?
I’m just gonna fight the winnable battle here. Stop saying 55.5 is 3:24-3:25 pace. It is not.
Also, if he had “rested in the 3rd” the pace for the leader/field would have presumably been slower, and allowed Wightman to finish faster than he did. As it is, Wightman ran the last 500m at 55.06 pace. So your contention that with a slower 3rd lap, Ingebrigtsen would be the only man capable of closing the last 500 at under 55 pace is probably incorrect.
When interviewed later on in the WCs, Ingebrigtsen said something like “I know I’m in shape to run sub-3:28, and my biggest regret is that I did not try to run that time.” So evidently in his opinion, his best strategy for beating Wightman would have been to go even harder, earlier. And honestly, I’m not sure I see the logic in claiming he would have had a better chance against Wightman if he’d left his move for later.
Because history shows that leading and pressing early spells massive fade/struggle late in championship racing. Many and even most times the early leader is spit out the back. In Eugene, Kipsang went from a close 4th to a distant 7th in the final 100. It just takes so much mental and physical effort to lead early when there is so little differences in talent at that level.
JI is the athlete so I defer to his comment. But if he were a friend I would ask "55.5 is 3:24-3:25 pace. Why did you feel a need to struggle/push to overtake that and lead?"
I believe if he had rested in 3rd that he has the 5K strength to put a sub 55 pace final 500 out there and he is the only person in the field currently capable of handling that, including Wightman. It is not as though Wightman blew him away - several subtle adjustments might have been the difference.
Are you suggesting that he thought leading faster than 3:24 pace was his best option? With hindsight, what do you think was his best option?
Saying 55.5 is 3:24-25 pace multiple times does not make it correct. Its 3:28 pace and pretty much every DL will go out that fast.
