Bekele/Kipchoge Push Sub 2

Lenny Leonard wrote:

The 4 minute mile was a mental barrier. The sub 2:00 marathon is a physical one.

.

It's both for both events. The sub 2:00 will happen soon.

Especially if they run one in perfect track like conditions.

Shorter road races are rarely done anywhere close to the track records so how do you expect any road marathon to truly reflect ultimate human ability?

They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt and the athletes could wear special spiked flats and it would happen next fall.

TrackBot! VDOT 95

perfect track wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

The 4 minute mile was a mental barrier. The sub 2:00 marathon is a physical one.

.

It's both for both events. The sub 2:00 will happen soon.

Especially if they run one in perfect track like conditions.

Shorter road races are rarely done anywhere close to the track records so how do you expect any road marathon to truly reflect ultimate human ability?

They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt and the athletes could wear special spiked flats and it would happen next fall.

You are making my argument for me. The sub-4 mile didn't need a new track, new shoes, a special race setup, it just happened. And it happened many many times under many different conditions (paced, solo, racing for time, raving for the win, etc).

Even with a flat course, on a track surface, with special padded spikes, and perfect pacers, I see no evidence that humans are close.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

perfect track wrote:

It's both for both events. The sub 2:00 will happen soon.

Especially if they run one in perfect track like conditions.

Shorter road races are rarely done anywhere close to the track records so how do you expect any road marathon to truly reflect ultimate human ability?

They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt and the athletes could wear special spiked flats and it would happen next fall.

You are making my argument for me. The sub-4 mile didn't need a new track, new shoes, a special race setup, it just happened. And it happened many many times under many different conditions (paced, solo, racing for time, raving for the win, etc).

Even with a flat course, on a track surface, with special padded spikes, and perfect pacers, I see no evidence that humans are close.

No. Humans didn't develop themselves as much physically when they were first attempting sub 4.. They thought they were doing their best.

What was the Marathon record in 1954? They probably thought the limit for that was about 2:15.

A sub 2 is more like a 3:40 mile. An even mix of a physical and mental barrier.

Okay, Trackbot won't do the leg work for me, but the highest recorded vdot was 93-95, which is a 1:51....

perfect track wrote:They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt and the athletes could wear special spiked flats and it would happen next fall.

1) They're nearly three minutes away, almost 2/3 mile back. Not even in sight.

2) Berlin is almost dead flat, pretty much the easiest road race imaginable.

These fantasy courses people talk about aren't going to happen so why bother bringing them up as a point of discussion?

To get near we need money to stay in the sport to keep the top talent interested, stability in Kenyan/Ethiopian (/Eritrian/Somalian/Ugandan?) society, perfect weather, and a mutant with A Kiprop's frame, Bekele's cardio system, Wanjiru's aggression, Kawauchi's injury resistance, Seko's dedication, Kipchoge's sang froid....

Could be five years. Could be 100. Could be never.

perfect track wrote:

They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt...

...and then it would no longer be a legit marathon race.

IAAF wrote:

RULE 240

Road Races

...

Course

2. the races shall be run on made-up roads. However, when traffic or

similar circumstances make it unsuitable, the course, duly marked,

may be on a bicycle path or footpath alongside the road, but not on

soft ground such as grass verges or the like. the start and finish

may be within an athletic arena.

Invented PBs wrote:

You could just debate with the OP rather than making cheap insults that don't add anything.

....................

I'm not sure they could, it's a lot of time to make up. One half would have to be sub-60. I know it's obvious, but they'd need to be able to run a 60min half at a comfortable pace not race pace. What's Bekele/Kipsang's half PBs?

Mo Farah and Ritz recently ran about an even 60 minute half marathon at almost full effort. Now get someone to do that twice non stop

The Rules wrote:

perfect track wrote:

They could tartan a strip of dead flat asphalt...

...and then it would no longer be a legit marathon race.

IAAF wrote:

RULE 240

Road Races

...

Course

2. the races shall be run on made-up roads. However, when traffic or

similar circumstances make it unsuitable, the course, duly marked,

may be on a bicycle path or footpath alongside the road, but not on

soft ground such as grass verges or the like. the start and finish

may be within an athletic arena.

A tartan strip on asphalt is about as "made-up" as a road can be. It's not soft ground or grass verges or the like. Whatever that means.

I was told that if you pray as hard as you can then anything is possible. learned that in bible studies

On an indoor banked track, yes. duh.

obvioussly wrote:

On an indoor banked track, yes. duh.

If there is a 5 foot diameter vacuum cleaner hose being dragged in front of Bekele/Kipchoge at a speed of about 14 miles/hour for 2 hours then yes. Duh.....

So every thread that bashes Trump gets deleted?

What ever happened to free speech?

I think it will happen sooner than most of you think. The difference between other distances and the marathon is that time has allowed other distance racing to develop and evolve, which cannot be said for the marathon. Until the last couple of years, the marathon was where former elites went at the end of their track careers; some excelled. Part of the drop in half/marathon records has been due to much earlier (age-wise) entry and specialization - think Kipsang and Kimetto. I doubt these two would have been the best at 5k and 10k if they had chosen to focus on truck first.

As the 10000m declines, and the marathon purse and prestige increases, there will be an opportunity for a Bekele-level talent individual to start at the marathon at 20, and the rest will be history. I have a hard time believing that Bekele and Kipchoge can run around 2:03 in their 30s but if they had started at them marathon before track, they would run the same or worse than today. That makes no sense unless their is something special about the marathon distance that would create a natural human limit. As far as milage in training, some of them already did that when training for track. I guess one downfall will be very short careers due to catastrophic injury

TrackBot wrote:

VDOT for 2:00:00 42.195km: 86

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 01:59:53

Half marathon: 00:57:13

15K: 00:39:52

10K: 00:26:03

5K: 00:12:30

3Mi: 00:12:02

2Mi: 00:07:44

3200m: 00:07:41

3K: 00:07:10

1Mi: 00:03:38

1600m: 00:03:36

1500m: 00:03:22

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

so Kenny B's 5K record is the best on the books? what about Danny K??!!

webby wrote:

Go go go go!!!! wrote:

No. Don't be an idiot.

Bekele did not run a single 5k split at 2:00:00 pace, so what makes you think he can run 8 of them back to back?

You are a dumb idiot.

For what it's worth, in his fastest marathon before yesterday he didn't run a single 5k split at 2:03:03 pace.

In London this year he reached 30k at 2:02:57 pace.

RUMAN wrote:

webby wrote:

For what it's worth, in his fastest marathon before yesterday he didn't run a single 5k split at 2:03:03 pace.

In London this year he reached 30k at 2:02:57 pace.

Wait, I guess that's not what you said. Paris was his previous fastest of course. My bad.

Also the 5k, his 7:20 3k is actually much softer than many people think (83.6). Bekele/Geb could definitely have broken it with ease in their prime.

Cellar_Door wrote:

Also the 5k, his 7:20 3k is actually much softer than many people think (83.6). Bekele/Geb could definitely have broken it with ease in their prime.

If it would have been easy they would have done it in whatever 3k race they just cruised through.