Based on today, what chance does Rupp have in the Rio Marathon?

15-20 wrote:

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

"Dead of winter"? You know rio's in the tropics, right? It's gonna be well into the 70s

he wont finish in the top 5

His chances are good. Excellent, even. The good Kenyan marathoners can't afford to focus on such a low pay race. The Rupper and his deep Nike funded pockets has no such problem.

Helpful advice giver wrote:

15-20 wrote:

There are too many experienced, great marathoners heading to Rio for Rupp to be "definitely top 5". 10th place would be better than expected. 15-20th is about right.

You are free to bump this thread after the Rio to see which of the two of use provided a closer estimate. Better than 10th (halfway between 5th and 15th) and you win. 10th or further back I win.

It's going to be a long four months until Rio, I'm so very excited to see which of you two was closer to the mark on Rupp's. I literally can not wait.

You literally will wait. You figuratively cannot wait.

You literally are illiterate.

Same as always have

zero

ZiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiPPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!

1984 LA Olympics:

Final ranking[edit]

RANK FINAL DISTANCE

1 Carlos Lopes (POR) 2'09:21

2 John Treacy (IRL) 2'09:56

3 Charlie Spedding (GBR) 2'09:58

2012:

Stephen KIPROTICH UGA 2:08:01

Abel KIRUI KEN 2:08:27

Wilson Kipsang KIPROTICH KEN 2:09:37

Thedirty wrote:

Sub 210 May be good for a medal. Seriously. When was the last time a sub 210 at the olympics did not medal? Ever?

Bronze medal performance since 1984:

1984 Charlie Spedding (GBR) 2'09:58

1988 Hussein Ahmed Salah (DJI) 2:10:59

1992 Stephan Freigang (GER) 2:14:00

1996 Erick Wainaina (KEN) 2:12:44

2000 Tesfaye Tola (ETH) 2:11:10

2004 Vanderlei de Lima Brazil 2:12:11

2008 Tsegay Kebede Ethiopia 2:10:00

2012 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich Kenya 2:09:37

Note that 4th place has never been sub 2:10.

in most olympic marathons a sub 2:10 will medal, and certainly be top 5. if he and salazar can figure out the best way to prepare/train for negative splits, (eg64/63) then sure he could medal or be top five

Biwott will win in around 2:07, Rupp will be fifth.

Bigtool05 wrote:

15-20 wrote:

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

"Dead of winter"? You know rio's in the tropics, right? It's gonna be well into the 70s

Fool, Moran, do you know the August temps in Rio are 71 average with 66 low? Do you know what an ocean breeze is? August is dead-of-winter in Rio.

asdfgh wrote:

Thedirty wrote:

Sub 210 May be good for a medal. Seriously. When was the last time a sub 210 at the olympics did not medal? Ever?

Bronze medal performance since 1984:

1984 Charlie Spedding (GBR) 2'09:58

1988 Hussein Ahmed Salah (DJI) 2:10:59

1992 Stephan Freigang (GER) 2:14:00

1996 Erick Wainaina (KEN) 2:12:44

2000 Tesfaye Tola (ETH) 2:11:10

2004 Vanderlei de Lima Brazil 2:12:11

2008 Tsegay Kebede Ethiopia 2:10:00

2012 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich Kenya 2:09:37

Note that 4th place has never been sub 2:10.

Note that all but one of those marathon was run in hot northern countries. The Sydney Olympic marathon was in October. Conditions will be temperature-wise perfect, and humidity will not an issue since they will run along the coast.

He has a chance to finish if he doesn't try to go with these guys.

I don't think the London marathon result changes anything for Rupp.

The 2012 London winner finished 3rd at the Olympics.

The 2008 London winner finished 5th

The 2004 winner didn't run the Olympics

The 2000 winner finished 11th

And it's not just London.

The fastest marathoners never win the Olympics.

This is good for perspective... even after limiting KEN and ETH entries there will be a lot of solid PRs at the line. Of course we all know PRs only tell so much. Would be cool to know what Rupp's LA SweatFest performance would have translated to, say, this year's Dubai. Also, am i reading this wrong? Why does this list allow 6 dudes from Japan?

My official rupp guess would be finishing in the 6-12 range (really going out on a limb here, i know). A couple top guys will surprise us and suck/DNF, and a couple next-tier guys will surprise us and run top 6.

Optimal Weather wrote:

Conditions will be temperature-wise perfect, and humidity will not an issue since they will run along the coast.

There is no correlation between humidity and being on the coast. The most humid cities in America are all along the coast. Southwest Florida is the closest thing we have to Rio, and if you think a marathon in Naples in January or February is guaranteed good weather, you're dead wrong.

The idea that Rio is going to have highs in the low 70s for the Olympics is very, very unrealistic. Here's a more realistic look at what August is like in Rio:

The average highs will probably be high 70s to very low 80s, with feels like temperatures in the high 80s to mid 90s. There's probably a 25% chance the weather is awful, a 50% chance it's just really humid, and a 25% chance that it's really good. These are the percentages I'd give to a weekend in February in Tampa/Sarasota/Naples, so they're probably similar or worse for Rio.

15-20 wrote:

Bigtool05 wrote:

"Dead of winter"? You know rio's in the tropics, right? It's gonna be well into the 70s

Fool, Moran, do you know the August temps in Rio are 71 average with 66 low? Do you know what an ocean breeze is? August is dead-of-winter in Rio.

luckily there is actual data for this,

"The month of August is characterized by essentially constant daily high temperatures, with daily highs around 81°F throughout the month"

and

"In the winter (July, August, September) it never gets cold. This time of year receives the least amount of rainfall, so a typical winter day is usually sunny and warm. "

so yes, it will be a hot marathon..

Raysism wrote:

Optimal Weather wrote:

Conditions will be temperature-wise perfect, and humidity will not an issue since they will run along the coast.

There is no correlation between humidity and being on the coast. The most humid cities in America are all along the coast. Southwest Florida is the closest thing we have to Rio, and if you think a marathon in Naples in January or February is guaranteed good weather, you're dead wrong.

Dead wrong is you. When is the last time Rio was hit by a hurricane? The closest to Rio the US has is San Diego, not Naples FL.

used to be old and in the way wrote:

"In the winter (July, August, September) it never gets cold. This time of year receives the least amount of rainfall, so a typical winter day is usually sunny and warm. "

so yes, it will be a hot marathon..

Sunny and warm equals hot??? Who knew? Goodness, I have skied many sunny "warm" days in the winter. Hot? 40s F at best.