Based on today, what chance does Rupp have in the Rio Marathon?

Kipchoge, 4th fastest 5000m ever = 12:45

A slower pace will suit him just fine.

Rupp may have a shot at a medal, but I don't see it happening unless heat, etc, causes some of the top guys to drop out.

There'll be a number of sub 2:06 runners in the race, I expect. That'll make it tough for Galen,

There ARE no pacemakers ... :)

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

15-20 wrote:

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

15th to 20th in 2:09. That is absolutely unheard of in any marathon, including London and Chicago.

Mid-August is not "the dead of winter" anywhere. Not even north of the wall and Castle Black.

Fwiw, it doesn't need to be "boiling over" to cause athletes some drama in the marathon.

Wow lol wrote:

15-20 wrote:

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

15th to 20th in 2:09. That is absolutely unheard of in any marathon, including London and Chicago.

All of the best marathoners are expected to run the Olympics--that is how it usually works. Yes, 15th-20th in low 2:12. The 2:09 is a best possible time predication with better than 10th not expected. Ryan Hall won 10th place in Beijing 2008 running 2:12.

Wtfunny wrote:

Mid-August is not "the dead of winter" anywhere. Not even north of the wall and Castle Black.

0/10.

Jan-Feb dead of winter in Northern regions.

+6 months = dead of winter in Southern Regions.

20% of podium finish? One of the favorites will get injured, one will have a bad day. Who knows. The key is each country can only field a limited number of runners, so his chances are better than you think even after today's run.

better than you think wrote:

20% of podium finish? One of the favorites will get injured, one will have a bad day. Who knows. The key is each country can only field a limited number of runners, so his chances are better than you think even after today's run.

More likely worse than "you" think. You seem to be assuming Rupp will have a perfect run while other runners do not.

Rupp is a better marathoner then you are assuming. Although we have little he did ease away from in the Trials, and he looked like he was jogging the whole way

Although we have little evidence**

Sorry about the error

Wow lol wrote:

Rupp is a better marathoner then you are assuming. Although we have little he did ease away from in the Trials, and he looked like he was jogging the whole way

And every other Olympic marathoner runner cannot be "better" than Rupp. Only Rupp has the secret to success.

15-20 wrote:

Wow lol wrote:

15th to 20th in 2:09. That is absolutely unheard of in any marathon, including London and Chicago.

All of the best marathoners are expected to run the Olympics--that is how it usually works. Yes, 15th-20th in low 2:12. The 2:09 is a best possible time predication with better than 10th not expected. Ryan Hall won 10th place in Beijing 2008 running 2:12.

Since Kenya and Ethiopia can only send 3 each it is never all the best in the world. Usually at least 2 of those guys will have a bad day. There are bound to be a couple other east Africans in the mix but Rupp can definately be top 5. I'd say 33% top 3.

A tactical race especially if its hot conditions favors Rupp because you know Salazar will have him ready for those conditions. There's no reason to think Rupp is not capable of a 2:06 or even a 2:05 on a fast course.

In championship marathon races crazy things happen and as good as Kipchoge has looked the favorites often struggle. Don't discount Rupp.

There are too many experienced, great marathoners heading to Rio for Rupp to be "definitely top 5". 10th place would be better than expected. 15-20th is about right.

You are free to bump this thread after the Rio to see which of the two of use provided a closer estimate. Better than 10th (halfway between 5th and 15th) and you win. 10th or further back I win.

I know, right? And the really sad thing is I grew up in Aussie.

For some reason I was thinking mid Sep.

I promise not to post before coffee again.

15-20 wrote:

There are too many experienced, great marathoners heading to Rio for Rupp to be "definitely top 5". 10th place would be better than expected. 15-20th is about right.

You are free to bump this thread after the Rio to see which of the two of use provided a closer estimate. Better than 10th (halfway between 5th and 15th) and you win. 10th or further back I win.

First of all I didn't say Rupp will definitely be top 5, I said he definitely can be top 5. But I think you underestimate Rupp. He's an Olympic medalist man. The guy has proven himself on the biggest stages. I'd say way better than 50% chance he top ten and to me it's more likely he medals than finishes 15-20. This is all contingent on him being healthy going in. Go back and check results from recent Olympic marathons. For Rupp to finish 15-20 he'd have to blow up.

15-20 wrote:

There are too many experienced, great marathoners heading to Rio for Rupp to be "definitely top 5". 10th place would be better than expected. 15-20th is about right.

You are free to bump this thread after the Rio to see which of the two of use provided a closer estimate. Better than 10th (halfway between 5th and 15th) and you win. 10th or further back I win.

It's going to be a long four months until Rio, I'm so very excited to see which of you two was closer to the mark on Rupp's. I literally can not wait.

The number of blow ups at the Olympics surprises me every single time...

Wow lol wrote:

We have yet to see Kipchoge race a tactical marathon... Does that sort of race still favor him. Or could a slower pace not suit him and leave him very vulnerable.

Running fast is a tactic. Stop calling slow races tactical. If slow is what you mean, then say slow.

Sub 210 May be good for a medal. Seriously. When was the last time a sub 210 at the olympics did not medal? Ever?